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French banks fear that the project of President Francois Hollande to reform regulated savings in France deny them a windfall of cheap liquidity, while debt crisis in the euro area again threatens the ability of banks to refinance themselves on the European markets.

The new head of state, who voted in favor of a pact to support growth of the Agreement on budgetary discipline approved by 25 of the 27 countries of the European Union, wants to mobilize savings of the French to strengthen financial leeway of the state for housing and corporate finance. 

His presidential program provided including a doubling of the ceiling of Booklet A and Booklet Sustainable Development (LDD), currently limited to 15,300 euros respectively and 6,000 euros. They are currently paid at a rate of 2.25%.

Francois Hollande hopes to encourage the creation of new social housing and transform the LDD in "savings book industry" dedicated to SME financing and business innovation.

If investors can not appreciate these reforms, credit institutions such as BNP Paribas and Societe Generale may see whole areas of savings leave their record to head the Caisse des Depots (CDC) that centralizes regulated savings in France.

According to Pascal Decque, an analyst at Cheuvreux, some 83 billion euros of savings could then migrate to the CDC. 

Such a transfer would be another blow to banks

French who have already lost 90 billion euros of deposits last year due to concerns of investors about banks' exposure to Greece and the financial crisis.

"You have liquidity pressures in all sectors for French banks," said Andrew Lim, an analyst at Espirito Santo. The program of Francois Hollande "will put pressure on the deposit market."

Societe Generale has declined to comment on the subject while at BNP Paribas messages left unanswered.

NON-DISCLOSURE OF BANKERS

This regulated savings, which comes mainly from the Booklet A, is collected by the banking networks and centralized at the CDC in exchange for a commission paid to banks. The funds raised finance housing projects, infrastructure and other public projects.

According to statistics from the CDC, the outstanding book A and the LDD reached 295.1 billion euros at end-March.

Leaders of French banks, already reluctant to the idea of ​​a banking reform that would isolate the activities according to their usefulness or not the economy, principal concern is that beyond the housing market deposits and the financing of major projects is entrusted to a public bank.

"Liquidity is our raw material, (Reform Booklet A, Ed) does not help us," said May 10 Perol President BPCE (People's Bank, Savings Bank), parent company of Natixis, radio BFM Business. "It's weird to send money to the Deposit which has no bank branch when there are French banks have 40,000 branches."

"French banks (…) have employees willing to work and to make loans to businesses that need," he added.

The CDC is well mobilized, through its infrastructure fund and Axa Private Equity and Vinci, to fund future high-speed line (HSL) between Tours and Bordeaux, an investment of more than seven billion euros.

"Is it necessary to finance SMEs by the CDC and insurers?" Plague a Parisian banker who requested anonymity. "With Francois Hollande, there is the return to France with the idea that the state does better. This is an old French fantasy. "

Reform of regulated savings" will destabilize the banks, "he says

. While many observers believe that with the new Basel III prudential banks can no longer finance long-term projects, some believe, however, that the state will not only fulfill these investments

. "The challenges of financing long-term investments can not be met if we depend only of a public actor, "says Gerard de la Martiniere, former president of the Federation of French society ; s insurance (FFSA)

.

Industrial production grew only by 9.3% in April against 11.6% in the first quarter. This is the lowest figure since May 2009. Retail sales, exports and investment also slow. A factory in China flat panel displays.

China announced Friday a slowdown in inflation but also the smallest increase in industrial production in almost three years, two factors that should prompt the government to further relax its monetary policy to stimulate growth.

Industrial production grew only by 9.3% in April against 11.6% in the first quarter. This is the lowest figure since May 2009 when the increase was 8.9%. "The Chinese economy is even weaker than expected, with growth of industrial production in the single digits for the first time since the global financial crisis," said Alistair Thornton, economist at IHS Global Insight, based in Beijing.

Any effect of the second world economy is also reflected in a slower increase in retail sales, gauge consumer spending, which rose in April by 14.1% year on year, against 15.2% in March and 14.8% for the entire first quarter. "The figures of consumption and production (industrial) showering even more hopes for a resumption of rapid growth in China," said Mark Williams, an analyst at Capital Economics.

Finally, investments in fixed capital, contributing to over half of the formation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of China also see their rise on a year to slow to 20.2% for the first four months of the year, whereas it was 20.9% for the first quarter. These weaknesses of the economy should prompt the government to ease its monetary policy, especially since the rise in consumer prices slowed to 3.4% yoy in April, against 3.6% in March.  

The level of inflation remains well below the 4% threshold set in March by the government, which closely monitors the evolution of prices to maintain social stability in a politically sensitive period, with the coming to power a new generation of leaders scheduled for the fall. On a year, food prices remain the main contributor to the rise, with 7% growth, which disproportionately hits the poorest households because they spend a larger portion of their income on food. But about a month, food prices fell 0.9% in April.

"The priority for the Chinese economy is not inflation but rather how to maintain economic growth," he told AFP Liao Qun, an economist at China Citic Bank International in Hong Kong. The producer price, which provides an early indication of future inflation, for their part, declined year on year by 0.7% in April. They had already declined in March but only 0.3%. "The extremely low index of producer prices will be one of the main factors that will force the government to further easing" monetary policy, according to Mr. Thornton.

Monetary easing seems all the more necessary that the Chinese economy is less and less driven by export growth, which suffer from the debt crisis in Europe, and struggling to find a relay in domestic demand. In April, growth in exports over the year fell to 4.9% and imports were virtually flat with only 0.3% increase, according to figures released by Customs on Thursday. These figures are significantly below the target of foreign trade growth of about 10% by government decree in 2012.

This smaller increase in foreign trade of China has contributed to the slowdown in growth, from 9.7% in first quarter 2011 to 8.1% in the first quarter of this year. To support the activity, the central bank will soon lower the reserve requirements for banks, allowing them to lend more, analysts said. Two drops of these reserves, very high in China, have already taken place in December and February.

Adecco is Tuesday first-quarter results better than expected, while announcing that the European environment is expected to remain difficult as North America, the second largest market of digital ; ro a global placement of personnel, should instead continue to do well.

The net result of the first three months of the yearâ increased 12% to 112 million euros, while analysts polled by Reuters had expected on average 100 million.

"We started in 2012. The turnover of the first quarter of 2012 is almost the same level as in the first quarter of 2011, a solid performance given the headwinds that blow in Europe, "says Patrick de Maeseneire, Director General ral of the Swiss group, said in a statement

. "Our sales in North America continued to hold up well." Revenues

the period rose 2% to 5.035 billion euros, against a consensus of 4.991 billion ..

……. Randstand, Dutch rival Adecco, spoke about the uncertain developments in Europe while the U.S. pre Manpower said ; see a double digit decline in southern Europe in the second quarter

.

Francois Hollande took over France in a low growth in Europe depressed, with the main challenges the recovery of public accounts and employment.

The pressure is on the new president, who knows that its room for maneuver is more limited than those of his predecessors.

Having identified the growth as a condition of the reduction of public deficits in Europe, it will negotiate, particularly with Germany, measures to stimulate activity without deteriorating accounts of the States.

In France, he inherits an annual deficit of about € 100 billion, focused on the state and the financial statements. 

He promises to bring the end of 2011 from 5.2% to 3% of GDP end 2013 in accordance with the commitment of France, by raising taxes and curbing the rise in die ; think the effort is balanced between the two.

Priority of the French unemployment rises, it, every month for nearly a year and reached a forgotten since the late twentieth century.

To reverse the trend, adapting the social system and revive the industry, the new president plans to use fiscal and budgetary weapons and engage in important negotiations with employers' organizations and union. 

FAITH IN THE FUTURE

Like his predecessors, he hopes to be helped by a more dynamic growth than await the IMF, OECD, the European Commission and economists. Additional austerity measures could therefore be required.

GDP would grow by 0.5% according to him this year, 1.7% in 2013, 2% in 2014, and 2% to 2.5% from 2015.

Economists at Credit Agricole CIB-felt before the second round it was a forecast "too optimistic".

"Both programs lack a credible comprehensive strategy to boost competitiveness and growth", they added about the finalists.

Francois Hollande opposed to a sudden slowdown in public spending, want to avoid explaining a recessive effect that dry up the revenue of the state and would increase the deficit instead to reduce it. 

Increased spending would be 1.1% per year – against an average of 1.7% from 2007 to 2010 – which would decrease the amount as a percentage of GDP if growth is there.

His relatives said that the rating agencies were watching the growth prospects of the states, not just fiscal ratios.

Degraded by Standard and Poor's earlier this year, the memo from France – ever "triple A" by Moody's and Fitch – is negative outlook for all three agencies, which means other damage are possible.

RECOVERY HISTORY

Francois Hollande promises to balance the public accounts end of 2017, a first since 1974. The effort would be one hundred billion over five years, including about forty by the end of 2013, provided that the annual defense budget.

"Despite the strong commitment of candidates to control deficits, we highlight the historical magnitude of the adjustment would be needed", noted analysts at Barclays.

To lower the debt ratio to GDP, which tends toward 90%, about 80% end of 2017, Francois Hollande provides significant tax increases, where the impact would be in his the less sensitive: the richest households and the largest enterprises.

Thirty billion of new taxes would reduce the deficit, and fifteen more would finance a portion of its 20 billion euros of measures. Some of these measures according to him should support growth and employment, others restore "justice" as the softening of the pension reform.

It is however committed to removing the VAT hike decided for the month of October and that would affect all consumers.

Faced with unemployment at its highest since 1999, Francois Hollande relies on a battery of policy measures – including an increase in recruitment of officials – and on support for small and medium enterprises.

He promises a "generation contract" to integrate young people into the business while retaining older workers, and the creation of 150,000 "jobs of the future", a discount of up to date "youth jobs" of the Jospin government. He announced a refocusing of training on the less educated public and strengthening the capacity of job center.

STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES

The new president will also reduce structural weaknesses that undermine the French economy since the end of the "thirty glorious years".

The foreign trade surplus that has been ten years since 1950, had a deficit of 70 billion euros last year, a record. The market share of France in world trade deteriorates to 3.3% last year against 5.8% in 1995. Exports and the deficit with the EU, representing 61% of total products sold outside France, widened further.

The imbalance of foreign trade is reflected in the current account deficit, which measures the evolution of the country's debt vis-à-vis the outside, so that almost ; s two-thirds of the stock of marketable debt held by French non-residents.

Francois Hollande surprised during the campaign by his discretion on structural reforms intended to reduce these imbalances.

"The discussions on an agenda of structural reforms (labor, goods and services) are, surprisingly, absent from the campaign of Francois Hollande," analysts at Barclays stressed. "That said, we see reason to believe in the ability of Francois Hollande to reform: the Socialist Party has traditionally good relations with social partners and Francois Hollande is known for build consensus. "

For Gilles Moec, Deutsche Bank, "its goal of zero deficit in 2017 is underpinned by ambitious growth forecasts which we believe are not credible without reforms rapid structural on which the Socialists are now completely silent. "

Deutsche Lufthansa on Wednesday released a quarterly loss higher than expected, attributed to the surging cost of jet fuel.

Operating loss for the first quarter amounted to 381 million euros against a negative balance of 169 million a year earlier. The consensus gave a loss of 289 million euros.

The German airline, which must publish all of its accounts Thursday, has also reported a turnover up 5.6% to 6.6 billion euros.

Lufthansa has also reported a net loss of EUR 397 million against a loss of 507 million a year earlier.

It anticipates for 2012 an operating profit of around 500 million euros.

The Eramet Group, whose sales fell 10% in the first quarter, said Thursday that operating profit in the first half should be lower than the first half 2012 due to the falling price of nickel and manganese.

The turnover of the mining group totaled 877 million euros in Q1 2012 against 973 million a year earlier (-7% at constant perimeter.)

The decline is 20% in the activity of manganese and nickel in 13% compared to first quarter 2011, while world production of stainless steel fell by around 3%. 

"As previously announced, average prices of nickel and manganese are the beginning of the year at levels below the current average of 2011 ", said in a statement the group, who still expects an increase of its turnover in the second quarter compared to first quarter 2012.

Apple announced Tuesday the results well above expectations, thanks to strong demand for its iPhone and iPad, numbers that advance the action of the American group of more than 7% in exchange for after-hours trading.

The first global stock market capitalization has reported earnings per share for the second quarter of 2011-2012 and $ 12.30 a turnover of 39.2 billion.

Financial analysts had expected, respectively 10.04 and 36.82 billion dollars, according to Thomson Reuters consensus I / B / E / S.

Apple said it sold 35.1 million iPhones in the period, an increase of 88% from a year ago. Analysts had expected about 30 million deliveries.

"The iPhone sales have exploded internationally," said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple's chief financial officer, during an interview with Reuters.

The number of elapsed iPad is 11.8 million, an increase of 151% over the second quarter of 2010-2011.

For the third quarter, said the group anticipates earnings per share of about 8.68 dollars and an annual turnover of about $ 34 billion, against expectations of 9.93 dollars and 37 respectively , 45 billion, according to Thomson Reuters consensus I / B / E / S.

Gross margin for the second quarter stood at 47.7% against 41.4% a year ago. 

"The margin is very high, which means that concerns about subsidies, price pressures were exaggerated. This shows that the group of flexibility on price, not only among consumers but also among operators, "said Shaw Wu, an analyst at Sterne Agee.

The way Apple had finished down by 1.99% to 560.28 dollars, due to movement of profit taking at work for several sessions.

The action group is more than up some 39% since the beginning of the year, against an advance of nearly 60% earlier this month.

European shares ended sharply lower Monday, falling to a low of three months while disappointing economic indicators in the eurozone and political uncertainty in France and the Netherlands are threatening to stir the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.

In Paris the CAC 40 finished down 2.83% to 3,098.37 points, its lowest level in four months. The UK FTSE lost 1.85% and 3.36% the German Dax, while the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index lost 2.32%.

"The economic dynamics in the euro area is weakening and it will be more difficult for governments to achieve fiscal targets in an environment of low growth," said Emmanuel Cau, strategists ge at JPMorgan AM.

The sector index Stoxx 600 banks in the euro area fell by 4% to its lowest level since last November.

GDF Suez was down 2.68% despite increased performance in the first quarter thanks to Britain's International Power. It also confirmed its annual targets.

STMicroelectronics, largest decline in the CAC 40, fell 13.8% after the announcement of a further restructuring of its joint venture ST-Ericsson.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said Monday it has presented his government's resignation to Queen Beatrix, who said she would consider it, paving the way for the e selection of a new parliament.

In France, Socialist Francois Hollande, topped Sunday, and the outgoing president, Nicolas Sarkozy, launched the campaign for the second round on May 6, whose outcome will depend part of the attitude of the voters of Marine Le Pen, the candidate of the National Front. 

On the purely economic front, the flash PMI released in the morning came out below the most pessimistic estimates and raised fears a continuing recession in the euro area.

Economists and analysts are far from unanimous on the eve of the first round of presidential elections on the possible impact of the vote in the markets and the debt of France.

This uncertainty was reflected in an excitement on the market of the French debt, whose resistance was tested Thursday on the occasion of a rumor of dice gradation of the sovereign rating of France.

"The continuation of the gap (between the French and German rates) depend on the evidence that will give the next president of the Republic of the fiscal framework that will implement , and this will depend on the coherence between the presidency and the majority it will enjoy in the Assembly, "said CM-CIC Securities in a note. 

The first round results on Sunday, to measure the influence that extremes may have on the face of the next National Assembly, while a socialist majority in the Senate and that a victory of Francois Hollande in the second round of presidential elections is seen as the most likely outcome among market professionals.

Uncertainty, they agree to say, will remain until the June parliamentary, government's announcement will come out and the decisions it will take to reduce budget deficits ; TARY. 

But, says Guillaume Menuet, an economist at Citigroup, "the markets could react negatively, especially if the candidate of the far left reaches Jean-Luc Melenchon third me, allowing his party and his Communist allies to influence policy, even at the margin ".

"DEBT RESISTS WELL"

A rate strategist at a major bank, who noted the relative stability of voting intention polls, sees no movement on the scale of market unless the two finalists are not Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande.

"There will not necessarily flow as a seller there is no flow buyer. Like right now, people will stay on the side," he said. He noted that currently, "(despite) the absence of flow buyer, the French debt up well", even as concerns over the euro area are back.

The French rate to 7 years maturity corresponding to the average of the entire French debt, varies from a low of 2.28% in early February 2.5% today, representing a decrease of 22 basis points only.

Many investors point out that the current market will continue to revolve around the financial situation of the countries 'peripheral' in the euro area, regardless of the next tenant of the Elysee. 

"We continue to believe that the first factor in the evolution of spreads will be the evolution of French spreads devices and macroeconomic prospects of the debt crisis in the eurozone" write economists and strategists from Barclays. "The elections will be a secondary factor behind Spain and Italy."

But for Robert Crossley, rates strategist at Citigroup, "the market seems serene, wrongly, on the prospect of victory in Holland. This victory is likely to result in a defeat on the economic front and market confidence "

." Mê ; myself skimming the election rhetoric, the hostility of Holland to the business world and his lack of experience in finance and bond markets begin to undermine the fragile market confidence, "he says

. He however advised to buy the debt of France to favor of widening spreads (yield spread with German debt, refer to the euro area) related to political uncertainties, this spacing to be temporary according to him. He suggests buying French bonds at 10 years and sell bonds or Austrian Belgian with the same maturity.

Meanwhile Sunday, the spread between the yield of the French loan to 10 years and its German equivalent has deviated 29 basis points (bps) since April 12, at 140 bps. The rate of the French loan to 10 years was him, stretched by 21 bps to 3.10%.

On the market very illiquid sovereign CDS, a sort of insurance policy against a default, the spread of the 5-year CDS of France rose from 177 to 210 points from 12 in April.

On the stock market, strategists advise to stay away from French values ​​facing their domestic market but to buy the CAC 40 index.

"The CAC 40 is not France," wrote Credit Suisse those that say that 66% of the turnover of the 40 companies in the benchmark index of the Paris Bourse are outside France, and 36% outside the euro area.

Tesco said Wednesday it would spend a billion pounds (1.2 billion) to overhaul its operations in Britain, where he seeks to regain market share, to re ESTABLISHING sales growth and to calm shareholders became nervous.

The emphasis on revitalizing sales implies that investments will be reduced to 3.3 billion pounds in the coming year against 3.8 billion last year.

The third global retailer also said its U.S. subsidiary successfully stalled later than expected.

Tesco dominates the segment of food retailing in Britain with a market share of 30% but in January it launched its first profit warning in 20 years. 

British retailer also announced a profit before tax of the group and exceptional up 1.6% to 3.9 billion pounds on the financial year ended February 25.

The consensus of analysts conducted by Tesco itself gave 3.88 billion, compared to 3.81 billion pounds for the year 2010/2011.

Operating earnings in Britain, where Tesco makes more than 70% of the balance, decreased 1% last quarter, while sales on a comparable basis fell 1.6%.