Top Economics News

The German Government has almost halved its growth forecast for next year, reduced to 1% against 1.8% auparavan.

After several economic research institutes, the German government has significantly revised down its growth forecast for next year, noting the slowdown in the economy under the weight of the financial crisis in Europe. Berlin now expects growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 1% in 2012, nearly half its previous estimate of 1.8%, said Wednesday sources close to the government. This forecast should be formalized Thursday by the Ministry of Economy.

The reduction comes as no surprise. Signs of a slowdown in the dynamics have increased recently. The latest business survey, the ZEW, which measures the expectations of analysts and institutional investors, reached Tuesday its lowest level since December 2008.The Ministry of Economy considered himself last week that the risks had "significantly increased" for the first European economy, strong exports. Germany suffers from weaker growth in its European partners, which absorb 60% of its exports.

The main economic research institutes predicted the country in their autumn report, which is the basis for forecasts of Berlin, a decline in GDP in the fourth quarter 2011, followed by stabilization at a low level. The export will not contribute to growth next year, they warned.

Strong last year after the terrible recession of 2009, German growth has largely continued this year and should reach 2.9%, putting Germany in the forefront of Europe.

German manufacturers of cars, machine tools and chemicals filled their order books since last year, and "the companies still much to do to fulfill their orders," Analysis Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING, "this time, they are much better prepared to face a crisis of Lehman type ". The recession following the collapse of U.S. investment bank in 2008 had occurred in a phase of over-capacity of German industry, breaking net momentum.

In the area of ​​machine tools, high of about one million employees and a major exporter, the production growth should slow markedly course next year, warned Tuesday the federation VDMA, but at 4%, remain fully is honorable.

The sequence of events for the German economy, that is "an anchor of stability and growth in Europe" in the words of its Minister of Economy, will very much depend on the outcome of the debt crisis.

EU leaders promise solutions in the coming weeks, and the business press them to do so. But if the remedies proposed were not sufficient to stem the crisis, "the German economy would be penalized more than expected, and would fall into recession," predicted institutes last week. The export collapse, consumer confidence, yet relatively untouched because of a strong labor market, would be reached, and the banking crisis handicap investment, according to worst-case scenario.

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Standard & Poor's Tuesday lowered a notch credit rating of ten Spanish banks, including the two largest in the country, pointing to the darkening economic prospects and a housing market still depressed.

Fitch Ratings has reduced its share shortly after the note of six banks in the wake of its decision, announced Friday, to lower the rating of Spain by two notches to AA-.

Among the banks downgraded by S & P are Santander and BBVA, key institutions of the country.Their two notes back from AA to AA-and carry a negative outlook.

S & P also revised the rating outlook for four banks, reducing it from stable to negative, and placed the bank under review with negative implications.

The prospect of all banks rated by S & P is now negative, meaning that further declines are possible notes.

Fitch, Banco Santander fell from AA to AA-and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) from AA-to A +.

Other banks involved include Banco Popular Espanol to BBB +. This note is placed under review with negative implications because of its exchange offer launched on Banco Pastor.

A few days after the piracy suffered by Areva, Paillou Patrick, the patron of the National Security Information Systems, was called to order hexagonal businesses and governments. He said protection systems are "permeable" and "abandoned." A participant of the Chaos Communication Congress, held in Berlin in December 2010.

Computer protection systems administration and French companies are they permeable? In any case, the conviction of Patrick Pailloux, the executive director of the National Security Information Systems (ANSSI). He called to order Friday in Monaco these companies and administrations judging their systems "in danger". "The situation can not remain as it is, information systems are in danger and we sometimes feel they were abandoned to their fate," said Mr Pailloux.

In his closing conference on security and information systems of Monaco, which were held from October 5 to 7, he was willing to cite any company. But the speech comes just days after French nuclear giant Areva has admitted being the victim of a cyber attack. The hackers had required the intervention of the ANSSI agency attached to the General Secretariat of Defence and National Security, a service of prime minister. Areva has ensured that the attack was focused on "non-critical information and not on sensitive information."

"We are far from the account. The situation everyday reality on the ground, is that our information services are often porous, and that malicious actors have benefited greatly.We often security loincloth, who does not eat bread and that ultimately does not bother anyone "insists the director general of ANSSI. And to prevent him:" we must take back control of our own systems, it no fatality, it's possible because it is not that difficult. We must mobilize to ensure that safety rules are followed. "

Dexia shares on the stock market plunged Monday after the decision of the rating agency Moody's placed the debt rating of the Franco-Belgian bank on negative watch.

Moody's justified its decision by concerns about the liquidity of the group while the refinance market conditions remain very tight.

A Dexia spokesman declined to comment on the decision of the agency.

On Tuesday, Fitch Ratings had already announced that it lowered its rating.

At 11:15, Dexia signed the worst performance of the European sector index banks – down by 4.11% – a decrease of 8.43%.

The announcement Sunday that Greece would not take the objectives of fiscal consolidation has aroused the distrust of investors and markets.

The decision by Moody's is also involved as speculation about the future of Dexia in full swing.

The institution admitted consider options to strengthen its balance sheet but has ruled out any split in the group.

Finance ministers Belgian and French are to meet Monday night and Tuesday as part of the European meetings of the Eurogroup and tell the Ecofin.

If some press reports indicate that Baroin and Didier Reynders must address the issue, a spokesman said it no special meeting was scheduled between the two men.

Scenarios ranging from the sale of assets to a breakdown of the group were mentioned in the press in recent days.

Dexia, which was saved from bankruptcy in fall 2008 after the collapse of U.S. bank Lehman Brothers, in the second quarter 2011 loss of four billion euros, the heaviest in its history.

The current account deficit widened from France in July to 4.5 billion euros from 3.4 billion in June, preliminary figures show released Tuesday by the Bank of France.

The trade deficit in goods reached 6.7 billion, one billion more than the previous month.

Trade in services have in parallel a surplus of 1.2 billion, down slightly from June.

The balance of revenue reached 3.2 billion euros from 3.0 billion while the deficit on current transfers remained unchanged at 2.2 billion.

The financial account showed net outflows of direct investments of 8.5 billion euros from 6.2 billion in June.

French direct investment abroad stand at 4.3 billion, the Bank of France said in a statement, "while an exceptional operation makes the negative balance of foreign investment in France: the purchase by a French group of significant foreign participation. "

Portfolio investment recorded net inflows of 5.3 billion euros residents reduced their holdings of 16.0 billion while non-residents making sales of French securities to 10.7 billion.

Other investment posted a net outflow of capital limited to 5.3 billion from net outflows of 49.0 billion.

Steve Jobs, Apple's iconic chief, resigned from his position as general manager, said Wednesday night the Apple brand.

On sick leave since January, Steve Jobs has been appointed Chairman of the Board of Directors of Apple and Tim Cook replaces the position of CEO.

"I always said if I ever came to not being able to perform my duties and obligations as CEO of Apple, I'd be the first to let you know. Unfortunately, that day has come" he wrote in his letter of resignation.

For many analysts, the resignation of Steve Jobs, predictable long-standing, should not prevent the group from Cupertino to continue on the path he laid out, marked by timed out.A new iPhone could also be marketed in September and the third version of the iPad tablet in 2012.

"I would say to investors not to panic and stay calm. Is the right thing to do. Steve Cook is president and CEO," responded Colin Gillis, an analyst at BGC Financial.

At 56, Steve Jobs has survived pancreatic cancer and was on sick leave since Jan. 17.

He was briefly interrupted in March when, emaciated, he came to present the new version of the tablet from Apple, the iPad.Steve Jobs was then photographed at a meal with President Barack Obama.

Since sick leave, Tim Cook held the position of CEO on an interim basis.

Steve Jobs spent all day Wednesday at the headquarters of his company in Silicon Valley, officials said a source close to Apple.

He met with the board and his closest collaborators and intends to play an active role in his new role, they added.

"Investors are very comfortable with Tim Cook, even if Jobs was the engine of innovation.Tim has shown that Apple could totally outperform when he was CEO of Apple, "said Shannon Cross, analyst at Cross Research.

Trading in Apple stock was suspended in electronic transactions. By 2300 GMT, it was indicated down 7%.

France, Italy, Spain and Belgium will restrict speculative this practice for 15 days, to combat rumors that destabilize current market. The practice of selling découvetr is accused of precipitating the fall of the most fragile, and aggravate instability in the financial markets.

France, Italy, Spain and Belgium will restrict short selling, a practice speculative complex to combat the "false rumors" that destabilize financial markets, announced Thursday the ESMA, the European financial regulator . In France, the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) has decided to ban short selling of eleven financial stocks for two weeks, told AFP its president, Jean-Pierre Jouyet. The nature of the measures in other European countries has not been specified by the ESMA.

Fighting rumors

These decisions were made when most financial stocks suffer French since Wednesday scares, which have their share price plunge in markets already nervous. "We deal in various European countries to rumors that are unfounded," noted the president of the AMF, in which "we wanted to test the French Resistance." "These rumors can amount to market abuse," said Mr Jouyet, taking the term by which the MFA refers to price manipulation and insider trading. "This is our answer, as it is always very determined and it will deal with anyone who wants to test us," he said in announcing the ban on short selling of financial stocks for 15 days.

Sell ​​an asset which does not own …

Short sales are speculative mechanism of borrowing an asset which we think the price will fall and sell it, hoping to pocket a large difference when it will have to buy to make it to the lender. Thus, a share sold short while rating 10 euros, and as she bought is only worth 8 euros, the author refers to the operation of a gain of 2 euros. This practice is risky, is accused of precipitating the fall of the most fragile, and aggravate instability in the financial markets. ESMA (European Securities and Markets Authority) said in a statement that Italy, Spain and Belgium had also decided to take steps to restrict short selling.

The stock market authorities of these countries "have made it to restrict the benefits that can be derived by spreading false rumors," said the ESMA, which may not prohibit short selling of government securities with the consent of national regulator of the country concerned. Since Wednesday, most financial stocks French are the target markets of scare stories, and suffered severe tumbles, over 10% for some. These rumors were strongly denied by the institutions concerned, especially BNP Paribas and Societe Generale and the Banque de France and the AMF.

After heavy falls Wednesday, Societe Generale rebounded 3.70% to close Thursday, Crédit Agricole and BNP Paribas 5.14% to 0.31%. "It is possible for us to open an investigation into the case of Société Générale", as requested by the bank, said Jouyet.Short selling of financial stocks had already been banned in several countries during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. For Christian Parisot, chief economist at Aurel BGC, it is not clear that this type of measure to solve all the problems. "It may limit a little movement, but there are other techniques" to speculate on the decline, he says. "So it's not a panacea for all." For the president of the AMF, "we have ways of monitoring important today but it is clear that they must be further strengthened throughout Europe and it should be considered a pooling of resources at European level" .

The Dutch Minister of Finance wants to force private banks to participate in the second bailout, even cause a default, while his German counterpart speaks unequivocally rescheduling. To end the hypocrisy? Greece in the storm

And if we stopped to look the other way? If we really want private creditors participating in the second bailout of Greece, he will not ask them politely. That's what dared to say, in essence, the Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager on Thursday. "I think we must accept the fact that a voluntary contribution is not realistic," he said in an interview with Dutch financial daily Financieele Dagblad. He is the first politician in the euro area to explicitly mention the option of a "compulsory contribution".According to him, even if it "leads to a default low and isolated, it is not so bad because Greece is not currently on the market and will not be for a while," said the minister who adds: "I do not really afraid of a downgrade of Greece."

Athens, which had already received in 2010 a first international rescue package of 110 billion euros over three years, asked a second plan, which should represent a similar amount, to take until the end of 2014. Its terms are discussed at European level, particularly the most sensitive point, how to involve private banks and other creditors of Greece, on a voluntary basis and without it being interpreted by the market as a default .

The spokesman for the Minister Niels Redeker said that the Netherlands "has always insisted that there should be a substantial contribution of private banks in the bailout of Greece," adding that the exact nature must be decided soon. It is certainly easier said a Dutch: The Dutch financial sector is exposed only to the tune of 3.7 billion euros. The German and French banks, hold 10 and 15 billion euros of Greek debt.

The idea of ​​rescheduling makes a comeback

The solution that had gathered far the most widely embraced state that proposed there for ten days by the French creditors, which provides for the automatic reinvestment by the holders of sovereign bonds Greek part of the amount repaid at maturity.

S & P except that cast a chill on the proposal Monday by announcing that the scenarios "likely to lead to a default under (its) criteria." Or "as long as the rating agencies have reported that it equates the terms of the French proposal to a fault (…), we can put other options on the table as an exchange of obligations," said in a television interview Wednesday morning, the Secretary of State for Finance German Jörg Asmussen.

The German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has put on the table Wednesday the idea of ​​a debt restructuring that would see Greek creditors exchange their titles against other maturity of seven years later. It evaluates to seven years because the time required to Greece to restructure its economy and put its public finances in good order.This pattern is much more radical than that proposed by the French. But if the rating agencies do not differentiate and describe the two options to default, choose the one that pays as much as …

The ECB is resisting

Not surprisingly, the European Central Bank (ECB) remains opposed to any defect in Greece. President Jean-Claude Trichet has repeated Thursday: "Our position has not changed. No partial default, no credit event. Point." In other words, in case of default all or part of Greece, the ECB could stop looking like Greek bonds sufficient guarantees in exchange for the loans they make to banks in the euro area, which could s' proved highly problematic for many of them.

Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank said Tuesday that the French plan for a private sector contribution to the Greek crisis had not amended the draft of the ECB to raise interest rates in July.

"The Governing Council of the ECB is still in high vigilance," said Jean-Claude Trichet at a press conference with the Governor of the South Korean central bank.

The use of the term "vigilance" by the ECB is considered the signal for a rate hike next month, which reacted to the rise of the euro and the Euribor interbank rate at three months reached 1.531%.

Monday, he declined, however, the uncertain context in Greece that led investors to incorporate a maintenance of interest rates next month by the ECB.

Jean-Claude Trichet also felt that the negotiations with the private sector in Greece were the responsibility of governments.

"The position of the Governing Council of the ECB has not changed.We'll see what specific proposal is presented and to hear from the States because it is their responsibility, and then we take a position. "

Greek MPs must decide by vote on Wednesday and Thursday an austerity plan required by the international creditors of Greece to grant new financing.

The European Union and the International Monetary Fund warned that they would pay the fifth installment, amounting to 12 billion euros of aid plan of 110 billion euros in 2010 developed to save Greece if the latter did not take additional austerity measures by July 3.

Subsequently, a new plan of aid to Greece, also of 110 billion euros, could be decided.

The overall business climate in France remained stable in June, the improvement in the industry offset a slight decline in retail trade while services remained unchanged, according to the monthly business survey released Wednesday by the INSEE .

The synthetic indicator of business climate in manufacturing industry increased by 3 points to 109, compared to the previous month which was revised down from one point to 106 against 107 initially.It fits over the long term average (100).

Nineteen economists surveyed by Reuters on average expected a pointer to 106, with estimates ranging from 105 to 107.

The turning point indicator is progressing and is now in the area indicating a window of opportunity.

The indicator of business climate as a whole, including services, construction, wholesale and retail trade, is stable at 108.

The turning point indicator is down slightly but is still well in the area where it is favorable for over a year and a half.

The service indicator remains at 107, the turning point indicator decreasing slightly in passing zone of uncertainty.