Top Economics News

After the Senate Friday, the Italian Chamber of Deputies adopted late Saturday afternoon the law of financial stability, a step that paves the way for Berlusconi's resignation and the formation of a new government.

Berlusconi, who was unable to obtain an absolute majority Tuesday, promised to resign after the Italian parliament have endorsed the law of financial stability, requested by the European partners of Rome to restore market confidence in public finances Peninsula.

Silvio Berlusconi is expected to recover in the next few hours his resignation to President Giorgio Napolitano. It is the former European Commissioner for Competition Mario Monti should succeed him.

Core values ​​to take on Wall Street Thursday.

* Chevron announced Thursday a 3.8% increase in its quarterly dividend, which will reach 81 cents per share.

* RAYTHEON published adjusted earnings of $ 1.39 per share for the third quarter and a turnover of 6.13 billion, against a consensus Thomson Reuters I / B / E / S of 6.38 billion of dollars.

* Procter & Gamble announced Thursday an increase in sales in the first quarter of fiscal year and an earnings per share in line with analysts' expectations.

With $ 21.9 billion, the revenue exceeds the consensus Thomson Reuters I / B / E / S, which included 21.53 billion dollars.

Earnings per share was announced at $ 1.03, as expected.Turnover was up 14% to $ 1.68 billion (1.66 billion expected, on average).

* BMC SOFTWARE, which develops business software, announced an adjusted earnings per share of 87 cents against 81 cents expected for the second quarter of fiscal year.

Revenues also exceeded expectations, with 556.3 million against $ 540.4 million expected.

* AETNA – The third group American Health Insurance has reported a profit higher than expected for the third quarter due to a small number of claims.

Earnings excluding items rose to $ 1.40 per share.Analysts on average expected $ 1.15.

Net income stood at 490.4 million dollars against 497.6 million a year earlier. The turnover, however, fell 0.7% to 8.48 billion dollars.

* LAZARD – The investment bank saw its net profit fall by 2% in the third quarter versus the same period in 2010 due to lower revenue from business advisory and asset management.

Net income was $ 62.7 million, or 49 cents a share, against $ 64 million (51 cents) a year earlier.

The German Government has almost halved its growth forecast for next year, reduced to 1% against 1.8% auparavan.

After several economic research institutes, the German government has significantly revised down its growth forecast for next year, noting the slowdown in the economy under the weight of the financial crisis in Europe. Berlin now expects growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 1% in 2012, nearly half its previous estimate of 1.8%, said Wednesday sources close to the government. This forecast should be formalized Thursday by the Ministry of Economy.

The reduction comes as no surprise. Signs of a slowdown in the dynamics have increased recently. The latest business survey, the ZEW, which measures the expectations of analysts and institutional investors, reached Tuesday its lowest level since December 2008.The Ministry of Economy considered himself last week that the risks had "significantly increased" for the first European economy, strong exports. Germany suffers from weaker growth in its European partners, which absorb 60% of its exports.

The main economic research institutes predicted the country in their autumn report, which is the basis for forecasts of Berlin, a decline in GDP in the fourth quarter 2011, followed by stabilization at a low level. The export will not contribute to growth next year, they warned.

Strong last year after the terrible recession of 2009, German growth has largely continued this year and should reach 2.9%, putting Germany in the forefront of Europe.

German manufacturers of cars, machine tools and chemicals filled their order books since last year, and "the companies still much to do to fulfill their orders," Analysis Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING, "this time, they are much better prepared to face a crisis of Lehman type ". The recession following the collapse of U.S. investment bank in 2008 had occurred in a phase of over-capacity of German industry, breaking net momentum.

In the area of ​​machine tools, high of about one million employees and a major exporter, the production growth should slow markedly course next year, warned Tuesday the federation VDMA, but at 4%, remain fully is honorable.

The sequence of events for the German economy, that is "an anchor of stability and growth in Europe" in the words of its Minister of Economy, will very much depend on the outcome of the debt crisis.

EU leaders promise solutions in the coming weeks, and the business press them to do so. But if the remedies proposed were not sufficient to stem the crisis, "the German economy would be penalized more than expected, and would fall into recession," predicted institutes last week. The export collapse, consumer confidence, yet relatively untouched because of a strong labor market, would be reached, and the banking crisis handicap investment, according to worst-case scenario.

Belgium, Luxembourg and France came Thursday to the heart of the negotiations on their respective participation in the rescue of a new Franco-Belgian bank Dexia, expected to lead discussions in a few days to a dismantling of the group ordered.

The Belgian government has warned Paris that Belgium did not intend to bear alone the financial burden of the rescue of the old world leader in financing local authorities, the first victim of the banking crisis of sovereign debt in the eurozone.

"It is clear that a very sensitive and crucial element in the negotiations, it is fair burden sharing," said Yves Leterme, Belgian Prime Minister in charge of current affairs, radio RTL.

If he declined to go into details of the negotiations, he recalled the nature "systemic" Dexia for the banking system.

His finance minister Didier Reynders also stressed the need for a balanced sharing of effort."Yes, we do not want to be alone with the whole group on our hands," he told reporters before a meeting of a small cabinet in Brussels.

"Do not forget that not only support the Belgian bank but it must continue to fund all the past, and we will not do it alone," said Didier Reynders, stating that it would begin negotiations with France after obtaining a government mandate.

In France, neither the Ministry of Finance or the Treasury or the Bank of France was immediately available to comment on the progress of negotiations on Dexia, whose board of directors to be held Saturday .

REDEMPTION FOR DEXIA BIL

Luxembourg has for its part that it was negotiating the acquisition of the Luxembourg subsidiary of Dexia, Dexia Banque Internationale à Luxembourg, with the help of an international investor.

The Minister of Finance of the Grand Duchy, Luc Frieden, said that negotiations on the resumption of Dexia BIL were in an advanced stage and could be finalized before the end of October, without specifying the identity of the investor.

With the statements of the Luxembourg authorities, the Dexia has suddenly turned down.

At 13:00, the action gave up 0.90% to 11.66 euros after

open up like other European banking shares.The European banking index progressed by 3.2%.

"This should generate a capital gain, which is positive.However, Dexia BIL is certainly rich in deposits, the sale of the blow will not ease the problems of financing the group, "said one trader in Paris.

The rescue plan could weigh on public finances of France and Belgium, already undermined by the crisis, and trigger negative reactions in public opinion.

The scenario being considered involves a backing of the main activities of Dexia in France at the Caisse des Depots (CDC) and the Postal Bank.

In Belgium, the plan could be realized by a partial nationalization of the retail or split it into a separately listed entity.

For the rest of the group, a "bad bank" would be set up to manage a large bond portfolio and an asset disposal program would be launched.

France and Belgium must commit to provide guarantees for the financing of the bond portfolio.

French household consumption of goods increased by 0.2% in August after a decline of similar magnitude in July, show statistics released Friday by INSEE.

Economists polled by Reuters on average expected a stable consumption in July and up 0.3% in August. The growth in consumption in June was revised down to 0.9% against 1.2% originally announced.

"The slight decline in July due mainly to a decline in purchases of cars and housing equipment," INSEE said in a statement."The recovery in consumption in cars and rising energy costs contributed to the slight increase in consumption in August."

Spending on durable goods rose 0.8% in July but remained stable in August. Purchases of automobiles rose 0.9% last month after falling 1.5% in July, according to Insee attributable decline in second-hand market.

"However, note INSEE, after the sharp increase in June (+3.9%), purchases of equipment housing down again in July (-0.7%) and August (-1.7% ).The decrease concerns in particular the purchase of furniture. "

Purchases of textiles and leather rose 1.0% in July after rising 3.6% in June but fell 2.3% in August.

Consumer spending in other manufactured goods rose 0.2% in July but fell even in August.

Meanwhile, household consumption of energy has accelerated markedly in August (+2.6% after +0.2% in July), a movement linked in particular to fuel costs.

Job creation increased this summer and the growth of the wage bill is expected to exceed 3.6% this year. Good news for Social Security accounts. A turnaround is not excluded. Officers, employees

Not everything is black on the employment front. Although the number of registered unemployed at employment center is rising considerably and the last three months. But several indicators released today by ACOSS (the agency responsible for collecting contributions for Social Security) have shed light on this first day of autumn.

After a slight dip in May and June, reports of recruitment of more than a month in the private, non-temporary, considered a leading indicator of labor market, rose 4.6% in August compared in July, to 648,000, an increase of 10.6% over the year. Declarations of hiring on permanent contracts are also up: 290 000 in July.Levels comparable to those before the crisis, during the period 2002-2007.

This flow of hiring has drawn the net job creation on the rise (+0.2% over three months in July, 1.6% yoy). Other indicators on the financial health of companies also are facing: the default rate, requests for payment deadlines and the number of bankruptcy remained broadly stable.

"Our data are quite encouraging" while "the overall context is excellent," said during a press briefing Pierre Burban, the President of ACOSS. "There was the first half of job retention and maintenance of payroll," he said. Indeed, the wage bill increased by 0.9% in the second quarter compared to the first and 3.8% year-over-month rolling.Growth consistent with the long-term average over the decade 2000-2008.

1.5 billion of revenue in addition to the social security

The really good news is that even if the wage stagnation for the next six months, the growth overhang already reached 3.55%. According to ACOSS, the annual increase should exceed 3.6%, 0.4 points above the government's latest forecast in the supplementary budget in June. Good news for Social Security should be able to save at least 1.5 billion euros in additional revenue.

But all is not rosy either. The second quarter was marked by a slowdown in the dynamics of the curve of employment. Thus, the increase in job creation was twice as high in the first quarter (+0.5%), and the amount of overtime, which had been buoyant in recent months has slowed sharply in July, 1.1%.In addition, temporary employment, considered a leading indicator of the labor market, fell by 0.6% while it rose by 5% per quarter in recent months.

These indicators are perhaps the first signs of a turnaround in the labor market, timely adjustment of enterprises to the economic impact varies from one to three months. Or the stock market crisis erupted in late July and has been a really dramatic turn for the banks in August. It is also the end of August the government took note of the slowdown in the French economy and revised its outlook for 2011 and 2012 downwards.

European shares opened lower Wednesday, following Wall Street, the proposals announced yesterday by Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy to find solutions to the debt crisis in Europe is not successful in convincing investors.

Around 9:30, the CAC 40 was down 0.86% to 3203.06 points. Other major European markets, London and Frankfurt, respectively, dropping 1.13% and 1.67%, Milan 1.32% yield.Of the European indices, the EuroStoxx 50 fell by 1.38% and 1.04% Eurofirst 300 loses.

Paris and Berlin have certainly proposed Tuesday the creation of an economic government of the eurozone and the adoption by all countries of the single currency, a "golden rule" of good management of public finances.

But most investors hold the postponement of some decisions such as the issuance of Eurobonds and the idea of ​​a tax on financial transactions.

"He has not had a scoop, these proposals had already been raised in recent days and the lack of project Eurobonds market was not convinced," said a stock dealer based in Paris.

As for values, the possibility to implement a tax on all financial transactions hanging over the financial sector, analysts point out. BNP Paribas shows the largest drop in the CAC 40, with a decline of 2.11%, 1.8% Societe Generale loose and Credit Agricole 1.19%.Stoxx index of bank lost 1.73%.

"Assuming that the proposed tax is based on the current proposal of the European Commission, a fee of 10 basis points (bps) on stocks and bonds and derivatives on a pdb, multiply it by 10 to 20 the transaction costs, "said UBS in a note.

Similarly, the stock exchange operators are affected by this proposal, noting that UBS in the 1990s Sweden had introduced such a tax had seen the volumes of the stock market melt of 85%.

The Swiss bank said this could influence the proposed mergers and acquisitions and reduce premiums for this type of operation.

NYSE Euronext loses 6.21% 3.14% Deutsche Börse and London Stock Exchange Group 3.45%.

On the foreign exchange market, traders were not convinced either by the Franco-German proposals, the euro falling by 0.12% against the greenback at 1.4378 dollar.

After a week of trading the most volatile memory, the New York Stock Exchange finished up Friday, raising hopes that the worst is over regarding the massive sales of securities that have been observed day funds.

The rebound Friday has not helped to erase the losses of the week, and U.S. markets are on track to achieve their largest decline over three weeks since March 2009.

The Dow Jones gained 1.13% or 125.71 points to 11,269.02 points and the S & P 500 has been 0.53% or 6.17 points to 1178.81 points.

The Nasdaq was awarded for its 0.61% (15.30 points) to 2507.98 points.

For the week, the three indices yield respectively 1.5%, 1.7% and 1%.

Sign that investor anxiety has subsided somewhat, the volume of trade Friday was much lower than in the previous four sessions, and changes in the rating were less violent.

"The decline in volume today clearly indicates that the current market a little less worried," commented Ken Polcari of ICAP Equities prior to closing.

He said that if the economic indicators next week are in line with expectations, the trend may continue.

"Before you go higher, the market needs to repair itself a little and to rebuild a database.This is what happens now. "

The rise in European markets, due to the ban on short selling some financial stocks, has helped to support Wall Street.

The U.S. economic indicators have meanwhile been blowing winds in the markets.

The numbers of consumer sentiment have molested standing at their lowest since 1980 but the July retail sales showed their biggest increase in three months.

As for values, title Nvidia fell 3.95% to 12.88 dollars, offsetting the strong gains made last after the announcement that the group included a higher than expected its quarterly revenue.

The government promises to reform disaster to try to curb the movement, which denounced the surge in housing prices and widening social inequalities. A young Israeli is taking part in a protest against rising property prices, which brought together tens of thousands in Tel Aviv July 30, 2011.

Undermined by social unrest on a scale unprecedented in Israel, the right-wing government of Benjamin Netanyahu had promised to forward the reforms. At the opening Sunday of the Cabinet, the Prime Minister announced that he would appoint an "inter-ministerial team responsible for presenting a plan to ease the economic burden [hanging] on citizens," said an official.This decision, following the measures taken in disaster last week, came a day after massive demonstrations across the country that brought together 150,000 Israelis according to media reports, more than 100,000 according to police.

The demonstrators, mostly Jews but also Arabs, marched Saturday in ten cities under the slogan "The people want social justice, not charity." The protest, which was initially soaring house prices, deals more generally with the increase in social inequality and the deterioration of public services, particularly in the field of health and education.The challenge is first part of the middle class crushed by the ever increasing cost of living, the result of a market controlled by a few families.

For now, it is not threatening to bring down the government, which has a strong majority in Parliament, based on the alliance between right and extreme right and religious parties. And Benjamin Netanyahu, whose popularity has fallen sharply, there is no reason to provoke early elections ahead of schedule in 2013. "The prime minister is aware of a genuine discontent in sections of the population who fail not make ends meet month, "he told public radio the spokesman of the Prime Minister Gideon Schmerling. He said that Benjamin Netanyahu was considering a reduction in indirect taxes and wanted to encourage competition by reducing the concentration of capital in the hands of a few.An inter-ministerial commission responsible for this matter has been specially convened for Sunday, he said. For its part, the Director General of the Ministry of Finance, Haim Shani, announced his resignation, as opposed to an increase in public spending.

"Netanyahu is good reason to worry"

"In the short term, the government is not at risk, but this is more true in the medium term. Netanyahu has good reason to worry" also considers the political scientist Yaron Ezrachi. "His problem is that to satisfy everyone will have to pay an economic price too high," says the professor of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, who expects that the extreme right and religious "are the first to leave a sinking ship. "According to the researcher, the "weak link in his coalition is the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, required to provide insurance to its base" consists of poor segments of the Jewish population from Arab countries and headed by the Minister of Inside Eli Yishai, Sunday publicly supported the claims of social movement.

"Never before were such crowds took to the streets on social issues", says the mass-circulation daily Yediot Aharonot. The newspaper noted "the hostility and even panic that caused the protest movement in the direction of the settlers' West Bank Jews, who accuse the left of the handle.

A four-day deadline set by the Treasury to raise the debt ceiling Barack Obama warned Friday that the political wrangling could cause the loss of the triple A of the United States.

The U.S. president again called on political leaders on both sides to compromise, while holding that the plan proposed by the leader of Republicans in the House of Representatives John Boehner would not solve the problem states USA.

The urgency of finding a solution has been highlighted with the release Friday of U.S. GDP figures, which not only showed an increase less than expected in the second quarter (+1.3% annualized in place the figure of 1.8% expected) but also a very strong downward revision of the first quarter (0.4% versus 1.9% previously announced).

"Now, what is clear is that any solution to avoid the fault must be bipartisan," said Barack Obama.

Failing agreement, the world's largest economy will soon Aug. 2 unable to meet its obligations and would end up in default.

Loss of the triple A, the three major rating agencies to give the note of the U.S. sovereign debt, would raise interest rates similar to the consequences of tax increases that would affect all Americans.

The situation is more complicated than the Republican camp is unable to speak with one voice. Some members of the GOP and have refused Thursday night to support the plan proposed by John Boehner.