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Industrial production grew only by 9.3% in April against 11.6% in the first quarter. This is the lowest figure since May 2009. Retail sales, exports and investment also slow. A factory in China flat panel displays.

China announced Friday a slowdown in inflation but also the smallest increase in industrial production in almost three years, two factors that should prompt the government to further relax its monetary policy to stimulate growth.

Industrial production grew only by 9.3% in April against 11.6% in the first quarter. This is the lowest figure since May 2009 when the increase was 8.9%. "The Chinese economy is even weaker than expected, with growth of industrial production in the single digits for the first time since the global financial crisis," said Alistair Thornton, economist at IHS Global Insight, based in Beijing.

Any effect of the second world economy is also reflected in a slower increase in retail sales, gauge consumer spending, which rose in April by 14.1% year on year, against 15.2% in March and 14.8% for the entire first quarter. "The figures of consumption and production (industrial) showering even more hopes for a resumption of rapid growth in China," said Mark Williams, an analyst at Capital Economics.

Finally, investments in fixed capital, contributing to over half of the formation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of China also see their rise on a year to slow to 20.2% for the first four months of the year, whereas it was 20.9% for the first quarter. These weaknesses of the economy should prompt the government to ease its monetary policy, especially since the rise in consumer prices slowed to 3.4% yoy in April, against 3.6% in March.  

The level of inflation remains well below the 4% threshold set in March by the government, which closely monitors the evolution of prices to maintain social stability in a politically sensitive period, with the coming to power a new generation of leaders scheduled for the fall. On a year, food prices remain the main contributor to the rise, with 7% growth, which disproportionately hits the poorest households because they spend a larger portion of their income on food. But about a month, food prices fell 0.9% in April.

"The priority for the Chinese economy is not inflation but rather how to maintain economic growth," he told AFP Liao Qun, an economist at China Citic Bank International in Hong Kong. The producer price, which provides an early indication of future inflation, for their part, declined year on year by 0.7% in April. They had already declined in March but only 0.3%. "The extremely low index of producer prices will be one of the main factors that will force the government to further easing" monetary policy, according to Mr. Thornton.

Monetary easing seems all the more necessary that the Chinese economy is less and less driven by export growth, which suffer from the debt crisis in Europe, and struggling to find a relay in domestic demand. In April, growth in exports over the year fell to 4.9% and imports were virtually flat with only 0.3% increase, according to figures released by Customs on Thursday. These figures are significantly below the target of foreign trade growth of about 10% by government decree in 2012.

This smaller increase in foreign trade of China has contributed to the slowdown in growth, from 9.7% in first quarter 2011 to 8.1% in the first quarter of this year. To support the activity, the central bank will soon lower the reserve requirements for banks, allowing them to lend more, analysts said. Two drops of these reserves, very high in China, have already taken place in December and February.

Francois Hollande took over France in a low growth in Europe depressed, with the main challenges the recovery of public accounts and employment.

The pressure is on the new president, who knows that its room for maneuver is more limited than those of his predecessors.

Having identified the growth as a condition of the reduction of public deficits in Europe, it will negotiate, particularly with Germany, measures to stimulate activity without deteriorating accounts of the States.

In France, he inherits an annual deficit of about € 100 billion, focused on the state and the financial statements. 

He promises to bring the end of 2011 from 5.2% to 3% of GDP end 2013 in accordance with the commitment of France, by raising taxes and curbing the rise in die ; think the effort is balanced between the two.

Priority of the French unemployment rises, it, every month for nearly a year and reached a forgotten since the late twentieth century.

To reverse the trend, adapting the social system and revive the industry, the new president plans to use fiscal and budgetary weapons and engage in important negotiations with employers' organizations and union. 

FAITH IN THE FUTURE

Like his predecessors, he hopes to be helped by a more dynamic growth than await the IMF, OECD, the European Commission and economists. Additional austerity measures could therefore be required.

GDP would grow by 0.5% according to him this year, 1.7% in 2013, 2% in 2014, and 2% to 2.5% from 2015.

Economists at Credit Agricole CIB-felt before the second round it was a forecast "too optimistic".

"Both programs lack a credible comprehensive strategy to boost competitiveness and growth", they added about the finalists.

Francois Hollande opposed to a sudden slowdown in public spending, want to avoid explaining a recessive effect that dry up the revenue of the state and would increase the deficit instead to reduce it. 

Increased spending would be 1.1% per year – against an average of 1.7% from 2007 to 2010 – which would decrease the amount as a percentage of GDP if growth is there.

His relatives said that the rating agencies were watching the growth prospects of the states, not just fiscal ratios.

Degraded by Standard and Poor's earlier this year, the memo from France – ever "triple A" by Moody's and Fitch – is negative outlook for all three agencies, which means other damage are possible.

RECOVERY HISTORY

Francois Hollande promises to balance the public accounts end of 2017, a first since 1974. The effort would be one hundred billion over five years, including about forty by the end of 2013, provided that the annual defense budget.

"Despite the strong commitment of candidates to control deficits, we highlight the historical magnitude of the adjustment would be needed", noted analysts at Barclays.

To lower the debt ratio to GDP, which tends toward 90%, about 80% end of 2017, Francois Hollande provides significant tax increases, where the impact would be in his the less sensitive: the richest households and the largest enterprises.

Thirty billion of new taxes would reduce the deficit, and fifteen more would finance a portion of its 20 billion euros of measures. Some of these measures according to him should support growth and employment, others restore "justice" as the softening of the pension reform.

It is however committed to removing the VAT hike decided for the month of October and that would affect all consumers.

Faced with unemployment at its highest since 1999, Francois Hollande relies on a battery of policy measures – including an increase in recruitment of officials – and on support for small and medium enterprises.

He promises a "generation contract" to integrate young people into the business while retaining older workers, and the creation of 150,000 "jobs of the future", a discount of up to date "youth jobs" of the Jospin government. He announced a refocusing of training on the less educated public and strengthening the capacity of job center.

STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES

The new president will also reduce structural weaknesses that undermine the French economy since the end of the "thirty glorious years".

The foreign trade surplus that has been ten years since 1950, had a deficit of 70 billion euros last year, a record. The market share of France in world trade deteriorates to 3.3% last year against 5.8% in 1995. Exports and the deficit with the EU, representing 61% of total products sold outside France, widened further.

The imbalance of foreign trade is reflected in the current account deficit, which measures the evolution of the country's debt vis-à-vis the outside, so that almost ; s two-thirds of the stock of marketable debt held by French non-residents.

Francois Hollande surprised during the campaign by his discretion on structural reforms intended to reduce these imbalances.

"The discussions on an agenda of structural reforms (labor, goods and services) are, surprisingly, absent from the campaign of Francois Hollande," analysts at Barclays stressed. "That said, we see reason to believe in the ability of Francois Hollande to reform: the Socialist Party has traditionally good relations with social partners and Francois Hollande is known for build consensus. "

For Gilles Moec, Deutsche Bank, "its goal of zero deficit in 2017 is underpinned by ambitious growth forecasts which we believe are not credible without reforms rapid structural on which the Socialists are now completely silent. "

Apple announced Tuesday the results well above expectations, thanks to strong demand for its iPhone and iPad, numbers that advance the action of the American group of more than 7% in exchange for after-hours trading.

The first global stock market capitalization has reported earnings per share for the second quarter of 2011-2012 and $ 12.30 a turnover of 39.2 billion.

Financial analysts had expected, respectively 10.04 and 36.82 billion dollars, according to Thomson Reuters consensus I / B / E / S.

Apple said it sold 35.1 million iPhones in the period, an increase of 88% from a year ago. Analysts had expected about 30 million deliveries.

"The iPhone sales have exploded internationally," said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple's chief financial officer, during an interview with Reuters.

The number of elapsed iPad is 11.8 million, an increase of 151% over the second quarter of 2010-2011.

For the third quarter, said the group anticipates earnings per share of about 8.68 dollars and an annual turnover of about $ 34 billion, against expectations of 9.93 dollars and 37 respectively , 45 billion, according to Thomson Reuters consensus I / B / E / S.

Gross margin for the second quarter stood at 47.7% against 41.4% a year ago. 

"The margin is very high, which means that concerns about subsidies, price pressures were exaggerated. This shows that the group of flexibility on price, not only among consumers but also among operators, "said Shaw Wu, an analyst at Sterne Agee.

The way Apple had finished down by 1.99% to 560.28 dollars, due to movement of profit taking at work for several sessions.

The action group is more than up some 39% since the beginning of the year, against an advance of nearly 60% earlier this month.

Qatar has raised its stake to 12.8% stake in Lagardere and intends to seek a position on the supervisory board of the media group, we read in a notice published Monday by the Authority ; financial markets.

Qatar Holding said hold 12.83% stake in Lagardere. society, which belongs to the sovereign wealth fund Qatar Investment Autority, said it had also surpassed the 10% voting rights, 10.05%.

She added that it reserves the possibility to further increase its stake in the company but said not wanting to take control.

However, it indicates it intends to seek a position on the supervisory board and "talk to all interested actors, as appropriate, in light of strategic partnerships to create value in ; long-term shareholder, with the stipulation that there is currently no specific plans in this regard ".

The luxury group PPR has formalized the appointment Wednesday of Hedi Slimane as creative director of fashion house Yves Saint Laurent, Stefano Pilati where it will replace, standing ovation Monday when presenting his latest collection of scratched e YSL.

Hedi Slimane and found the house in which he led the men's fashion from 1997 to 2000, before knowing the glory at Dior.

The designer will now assume responsibility for the overall artistic YSL brand and all its collections, PPR said in a statement.

Along with these new features, Hedi Slimane continues his photographic career.

Stefano Pilati was artistic director of Yves Saint Laurent since 2004.

Like all luxury brands, YSL has signed a particularly brilliant year 2011. Its sales have taken off from 31% to 353.7 million euros and operating profit quadrupled to 41 million euros.

As with many other brands, profitability was driven by the success of its leather goods, more profitable than the loan-to-wear.

Wall Street ended down about 0.5% Wednesday, interrupting a series of four consecutive sessions of gains, after investors have concluded about the Reserve Chairman fe ; Re public that there will be no immediate further monetary easing.

The Dow Jones Industrial 30 yielded 0.41%, or 53.05 points, to 12,952.07. The S & P-500, wider, lost 6.50 points, or 0.47%, to 1365.68. The Nasdaq Composite fell 19.87 points to his side (-0.67%) to 2,966.89.

At his hearing before the Committee on Financial Services of the House of Representatives, Ben Bernanke noted that there had been improvements in the labor market, although it also said he had to accelerate growth in the United States that will reduce an unemployment rate considered unacceptable.

Recognition of a better employment has, ultimately, been interpreted as not going in the direction of an imminent new bond buyback program, possibility Ben Bernanke himself had not ruled out during the press conference which followed the last monetary policy meeting of the Fed's late January. 

"Market participants felt that Ben Bernanke was slightly less accommodating than before – and I stress the word 'slightly'," said Michael Marrale, managing director at RBC Capital Markets.

The statements of Fed chairman supported the dollar and weighed on commodity-related values, with a sector index down by 1.74%.

The decline of Wall Street has been limited by the publication of an index of purchasing managers in the Chicago area much better than expected in February, its highest since April 2011 . 

The publication of the Fed's Beige Book, which says that the U.S. economy grew at a moderate pace in January and mid February, was also ; a factor of support.

The decline Wednesday is also linked to profit taking after the series of increases in recent days. And, throughout the month, the Dow Jones gained 2.5%, the S & P 500 4.1% and Nasdaq 5.4%.

Analysts also note that the volumes were less expanded in comparison to the average of February.

German exports in December accused their most marked decline in almost three years, the first sign that the euro area economy has suffered heavily in the last quarter of re percussion of the debt crisis.

But the figures of the Federal Bureau of Statistics also show that exports have reached record levels in all of 2011, and, according to the latest predictors, the German economy is back on track after a brief contraction.

"Earlier this year, the outlook for the German economy is better, while the global economy gathers momentum and the uncertainty surrounding the debt crisis eases ", Ulrike Rondorf analysis, economist at Commerzbank. 

The euro stood Wednesday peaks several weeks against the dollar and the yen, investors hoping to make Greece the austerity measures demanded in return for a second bailout.

On a seasonally adjusted, German exports fell 4.3% in December, their most marked decline since January 2009. Economists polled by Reuters on average expected a decline of only 1.0%.

The trade surplus has settled to 13.9 billion euros after 14.9 billion (revised figure) in the previous month and 14.0 billion expected.

THINNING FOR

The German economy, export-oriented, quickly recovered from the 2008-2009 financial crisis but the budgetary problems of the euro area and the global economic downturn have clouded his growth prospects.

The first official estimate reported a contraction of 0.25% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter and German economic indicators in December were more still bad as feared. 

Industrial production in December suffered its biggest decline since early 2009, heavily disappointing expectations.

Economists were betting on domestic demand to support the economy and anticipated imports up 0.6% in December, but they fell 3.9%.

The trade surplus of Germany, however, reached 158.1 billion euros in 2011, after 154.9 billion in 2010.

This contrasts sharply with the trade deficit of France, which last year reached a record 69.6 billion euros.

The economic forecast surveys also suggest that the slump in the German economy will be short lived. 

The business climate has improved in January for the third consecutive month, while consumer confidence in the horizon of February rose against all odds at its highest level in ten months.

Over the full year 2011, German exports exceed 1,000 billion euros. And the trend is rising: industrial goods orders rose 1.7% in December, despite the erosion of demand from the euro area on the bottom of the debt crisis.

"With the 2008 financial crisis, the importance of different export markets of Germany has changed somewhat, declining slightly in Europe and the rest of gaining importance worldwide, "said Anton Börner, director of industrial consolidation BGA.

After the Senate Friday, the Italian Chamber of Deputies adopted late Saturday afternoon the law of financial stability, a step that paves the way for Berlusconi's resignation and the formation of a new government.

Berlusconi, who was unable to obtain an absolute majority Tuesday, promised to resign after the Italian parliament have endorsed the law of financial stability, requested by the European partners of Rome to restore market confidence in public finances Peninsula.

Silvio Berlusconi is expected to recover in the next few hours his resignation to President Giorgio Napolitano. It is the former European Commissioner for Competition Mario Monti should succeed him.

Core values ​​to take on Wall Street Thursday.

* Chevron announced Thursday a 3.8% increase in its quarterly dividend, which will reach 81 cents per share.

* RAYTHEON published adjusted earnings of $ 1.39 per share for the third quarter and a turnover of 6.13 billion, against a consensus Thomson Reuters I / B / E / S of 6.38 billion of dollars.

* Procter & Gamble announced Thursday an increase in sales in the first quarter of fiscal year and an earnings per share in line with analysts' expectations.

With $ 21.9 billion, the revenue exceeds the consensus Thomson Reuters I / B / E / S, which included 21.53 billion dollars.

Earnings per share was announced at $ 1.03, as expected.Turnover was up 14% to $ 1.68 billion (1.66 billion expected, on average).

* BMC SOFTWARE, which develops business software, announced an adjusted earnings per share of 87 cents against 81 cents expected for the second quarter of fiscal year.

Revenues also exceeded expectations, with 556.3 million against $ 540.4 million expected.

* AETNA – The third group American Health Insurance has reported a profit higher than expected for the third quarter due to a small number of claims.

Earnings excluding items rose to $ 1.40 per share.Analysts on average expected $ 1.15.

Net income stood at 490.4 million dollars against 497.6 million a year earlier. The turnover, however, fell 0.7% to 8.48 billion dollars.

* LAZARD – The investment bank saw its net profit fall by 2% in the third quarter versus the same period in 2010 due to lower revenue from business advisory and asset management.

Net income was $ 62.7 million, or 49 cents a share, against $ 64 million (51 cents) a year earlier.

The German Government has almost halved its growth forecast for next year, reduced to 1% against 1.8% auparavan.

After several economic research institutes, the German government has significantly revised down its growth forecast for next year, noting the slowdown in the economy under the weight of the financial crisis in Europe. Berlin now expects growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 1% in 2012, nearly half its previous estimate of 1.8%, said Wednesday sources close to the government. This forecast should be formalized Thursday by the Ministry of Economy.

The reduction comes as no surprise. Signs of a slowdown in the dynamics have increased recently. The latest business survey, the ZEW, which measures the expectations of analysts and institutional investors, reached Tuesday its lowest level since December 2008.The Ministry of Economy considered himself last week that the risks had "significantly increased" for the first European economy, strong exports. Germany suffers from weaker growth in its European partners, which absorb 60% of its exports.

The main economic research institutes predicted the country in their autumn report, which is the basis for forecasts of Berlin, a decline in GDP in the fourth quarter 2011, followed by stabilization at a low level. The export will not contribute to growth next year, they warned.

Strong last year after the terrible recession of 2009, German growth has largely continued this year and should reach 2.9%, putting Germany in the forefront of Europe.

German manufacturers of cars, machine tools and chemicals filled their order books since last year, and "the companies still much to do to fulfill their orders," Analysis Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING, "this time, they are much better prepared to face a crisis of Lehman type ". The recession following the collapse of U.S. investment bank in 2008 had occurred in a phase of over-capacity of German industry, breaking net momentum.

In the area of ​​machine tools, high of about one million employees and a major exporter, the production growth should slow markedly course next year, warned Tuesday the federation VDMA, but at 4%, remain fully is honorable.

The sequence of events for the German economy, that is "an anchor of stability and growth in Europe" in the words of its Minister of Economy, will very much depend on the outcome of the debt crisis.

EU leaders promise solutions in the coming weeks, and the business press them to do so. But if the remedies proposed were not sufficient to stem the crisis, "the German economy would be penalized more than expected, and would fall into recession," predicted institutes last week. The export collapse, consumer confidence, yet relatively untouched because of a strong labor market, would be reached, and the banking crisis handicap investment, according to worst-case scenario.