Moody's is more secure than the debt of France still deserves the highest rating possible. Degradation could occur in the next six months. The consequences for France and the euro area would be dramatic. The budget minister Valérie Pécresse and the Minister of Economy and Finance Baroin
The sacred triple A of France is under pressure: the rating agency Moody's announced Monday night that it planned to lower the perspective of the note lights. A warning to potentially dramatic consequences for France and for the euro area. Explanations.
Our triple-A is really threatened?
For now, Moody's said it just gave himself three months to determine whether his perspective "stable" was still warranted.The agency is careful to note that this review is part of its annual financial statements for France and it is not yet at this stage, a decision on the rating of the country. However, if the prospect of this note should be revised to "negative", this would imply that Moody's would likely reduce the medium-term (usually for a term of three to twelve months). France, would become the new big country, after the United States to lose the precious talisman financially.
This warning is justified? The presidential campaign hostage rating agencies?
The possibility of a deterioration in France is not a surprise. The warning from Moody's, yes. Rating agencies usually just an opinion or negative stable and degrade or maintain the rating. This is especially the timing is symbolic in three months, the campaign for the Elysee Palace in full swing.A negative outlook on the triple A French will become a major issue of debate. The presidential campaign of 2012 will therefore be under supervision of rating agencies. Read about the blog corridors Bercy.
Concerns about a possible deterioration in the sovereign rating lights are not new. France shows the worst ratios of budget club triple A. Government deficit (5.7% this year) exceeds the level of other triple-A in the euro area (Germany is 0.9%, Denmark 4.8%, Netherlands 3.9% Austria 3% and Sweden has a surplus of 1.5%). France, also displays a primary deficit (excluding debt burden) twice (3% of GDP) than its neighbors (1.6% in the Netherlands, Austria 0.9%, 0.5% Luxembourg, while Germany and Finland should generate a primary surplus this year).Finally, France is also one of the few members of the Triple A club to suffer from a deficit in its trade balance. Also, since the deterioration of the U.S. Standard & Poor's this summer, the French note seems undeserved. However, all agencies – including Moody's – had denied market rumors in August, reiterating that they maintained their confidence in the Triple A of France.
The context was it damaged?
Since this summer, nothing goes to France: there was no growth in the second quarter and looks just as sluggish by the end of the year, the euro area is still mired in the debt crisis and banks French are in the financial market turmoil. This is precisely what worries Moody's. It is "crucial" for France to maintain "investor confidence in its ability and willingness to deal with unexpected challenges," noted the agency in a statement.Or "France could face a number of challenges in the coming months – such as the need for additional support to other European countries or its own banking system, which could increase so significant commitments to be borne by the budget of the country, "she adds. In short: France has more financial flexibility. We understand better the current government reluctance to recapitalize its banks with public money and increase the discount to private creditors of Greece.
What consequences for France if they lose their triple A?
The fact benefit from the best possible rating allows France to borrow in the markets on very favorable terms to finance its debt. Lose this note would increase interest rates, so an increase in the cost of borrowing of the French state.The difference between the rates of French government bonds to 10 years (OAT) and German government securities of similar maturity (Bund) has also passed on Tuesday for the first time, a percentage point. At the same time, insurance against a default on the obligations of the French state (CDS) increased by 10 basis points. Currently, it costs 194,000 euros to insure against exposure to 10 million euros in French government bonds. France must make 8.6 billion euros of bonds by December and 179 billion in 2012 to renew its stock of debt. Direct consequence for the first time, the debt burden will be the first budget item next year, on top of School. According to government projections, it will amount to 48.77 billion euros. If France is losing its triple A, it could be more.Because unlike the United States, whose Treasury bills are still considered a safe haven, the obligations of the French state is not immune to a general distrust of investors, because of the context of European crisis.
And for Europe?
The loss of the triple A French would not be good news for the euro area. This would call into question the quality of borrower of the European Financial Stability (EFSF, which currently enjoys the highest rating possible), because France is the second largest guarantor. Now this tool is the cornerstone of the plan to end the crisis in the euro area. Moreover, France would potentially the camp of countries to aid those who need help.This would call into question the relationship quickly the Franco-German motor of advances in European governance, as both countries do more than talk on equal terms (triple A to triple A). The temptation would be great for the best students in the euro area to operate in a vacuum and cease to be in solidarity with the lower-rated countries. This would result in the breakup of the euro area.
Can we avoid losing our triple A?
"The continued commitment to implement economic reform measures and budget, and visible progress in the goals" for reducing debt "will be important for maintaining the stable outlook" of the note of the country said Moody's. The Minister of Economy and Finance Baroin said Tuesday that Paris would "do everything possible" to keep its deficit reduction targets.For 2011, the deficit target of 5.7% seems achievable. He enrolled in the draft budget law in 2012 (4.6% of GDP), that MPs prepare to vote today, the state seems inaccessible, because built on a growth assumption of 1.75 %. However, most forecasters expect at best a GDP growth of 0.9% next year. That means ten billion euros in additional savings to identify. Last night, Prime Minister Francois Fillon acknowledged that it will take "new measures" austerity if growth is not at the rendezvous. At the risk of bringing France into the spiral-rigor recession in Greece and Portugal for two years.