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After the Senate Friday, the Italian Chamber of Deputies adopted late Saturday afternoon the law of financial stability, a step that paves the way for Berlusconi's resignation and the formation of a new government.

Berlusconi, who was unable to obtain an absolute majority Tuesday, promised to resign after the Italian parliament have endorsed the law of financial stability, requested by the European partners of Rome to restore market confidence in public finances Peninsula.

Silvio Berlusconi is expected to recover in the next few hours his resignation to President Giorgio Napolitano. It is the former European Commissioner for Competition Mario Monti should succeed him.

U.S. inventories of crude oil fell against all expectations last week, said Thursday the U.S. Agency for Energy Information (EIA).

Crude inventories fell 1.37 million barrels to 338.09 million. Economists on average had expected a rise of 400,000 barrels.

Gasoline inventories fell 2.11 million barrels (consensus: 300,000), to 204.17 million.

The reserves of distillates, which include heating oil, fell by 6.02 million barrels (consensus: -2.0 million) to 135.87 million.

The rate of capacity utilization of refineries dropped 2.7 points to 82.6%.

Around 3:50 p.m. GMT, U.S. crude reduced its losses, yielding 1.3% to 95.80 dollars a barrel.

Moody's is more secure than the debt of France still deserves the highest rating possible. Degradation could occur in the next six months. The consequences for France and the euro area would be dramatic. The budget minister Valérie Pécresse and the Minister of Economy and Finance Baroin

The sacred triple A of France is under pressure: the rating agency Moody's announced Monday night that it planned to lower the perspective of the note lights. A warning to potentially dramatic consequences for France and for the euro area. Explanations.

Our triple-A is really threatened?

For now, Moody's said it just gave himself three months to determine whether his perspective "stable" was still warranted.The agency is careful to note that this review is part of its annual financial statements for France and it is not yet at this stage, a decision on the rating of the country. However, if the prospect of this note should be revised to "negative", this would imply that Moody's would likely reduce the medium-term (usually for a term of three to twelve months). France, would become the new big country, after the United States to lose the precious talisman financially.

This warning is justified? The presidential campaign hostage rating agencies?

The possibility of a deterioration in France is not a surprise. The warning from Moody's, yes. Rating agencies usually just an opinion or negative stable and degrade or maintain the rating. This is especially the timing is symbolic in three months, the campaign for the Elysee Palace in full swing.A negative outlook on the triple A French will become a major issue of debate. The presidential campaign of 2012 will therefore be under supervision of rating agencies. Read about the blog corridors Bercy.

Concerns about a possible deterioration in the sovereign rating lights are not new. France shows the worst ratios of budget club triple A. Government deficit (5.7% this year) exceeds the level of other triple-A in the euro area (Germany is 0.9%, Denmark 4.8%, Netherlands 3.9% Austria 3% and Sweden has a surplus of 1.5%). France, also displays a primary deficit (excluding debt burden) twice (3% of GDP) than its neighbors (1.6% in the Netherlands, Austria 0.9%, 0.5% Luxembourg, while Germany and Finland should generate a primary surplus this year).Finally, France is also one of the few members of the Triple A club to suffer from a deficit in its trade balance. Also, since the deterioration of the U.S. Standard & Poor's this summer, the French note seems undeserved. However, all agencies – including Moody's – had denied market rumors in August, reiterating that they maintained their confidence in the Triple A of France.

The context was it damaged?

Since this summer, nothing goes to France: there was no growth in the second quarter and looks just as sluggish by the end of the year, the euro area is still mired in the debt crisis and banks French are in the financial market turmoil. This is precisely what worries Moody's. It is "crucial" for France to maintain "investor confidence in its ability and willingness to deal with unexpected challenges," noted the agency in a statement.Or "France could face a number of challenges in the coming months – such as the need for additional support to other European countries or its own banking system, which could increase so significant commitments to be borne by the budget of the country, "she adds. In short: France has more financial flexibility. We understand better the current government reluctance to recapitalize its banks with public money and increase the discount to private creditors of Greece.

What consequences for France if they lose their triple A?

The fact benefit from the best possible rating allows France to borrow in the markets on very favorable terms to finance its debt. Lose this note would increase interest rates, so an increase in the cost of borrowing of the French state.The difference between the rates of French government bonds to 10 years (OAT) and German government securities of similar maturity (Bund) has also passed on Tuesday for the first time, a percentage point. At the same time, insurance against a default on the obligations of the French state (CDS) increased by 10 basis points. Currently, it costs 194,000 euros to insure against exposure to 10 million euros in French government bonds. France must make 8.6 billion euros of bonds by December and 179 billion in 2012 to renew its stock of debt. Direct consequence for the first time, the debt burden will be the first budget item next year, on top of School. According to government projections, it will amount to 48.77 billion euros. If France is losing its triple A, it could be more.Because unlike the United States, whose Treasury bills are still considered a safe haven, the obligations of the French state is not immune to a general distrust of investors, because of the context of European crisis.

And for Europe?

The loss of the triple A French would not be good news for the euro area. This would call into question the quality of borrower of the European Financial Stability (EFSF, which currently enjoys the highest rating possible), because France is the second largest guarantor. Now this tool is the cornerstone of the plan to end the crisis in the euro area. Moreover, France would potentially the camp of countries to aid those who need help.This would call into question the relationship quickly the Franco-German motor of advances in European governance, as both countries do more than talk on equal terms (triple A to triple A). The temptation would be great for the best students in the euro area to operate in a vacuum and cease to be in solidarity with the lower-rated countries. This would result in the breakup of the euro area.

Can we avoid losing our triple A?

"The continued commitment to implement economic reform measures and budget, and visible progress in the goals" for reducing debt "will be important for maintaining the stable outlook" of the note of the country said Moody's. The Minister of Economy and Finance Baroin said Tuesday that Paris would "do everything possible" to keep its deficit reduction targets.For 2011, the deficit target of 5.7% seems achievable. He enrolled in the draft budget law in 2012 (4.6% of GDP), that MPs prepare to vote today, the state seems inaccessible, because built on a growth assumption of 1.75 %. However, most forecasters expect at best a GDP growth of 0.9% next year. That means ten billion euros in additional savings to identify. Last night, Prime Minister Francois Fillon acknowledged that it will take "new measures" austerity if growth is not at the rendezvous. At the risk of bringing France into the spiral-rigor recession in Greece and Portugal for two years.

France and Belgium flew Tuesday to rescue Dexia, ensuring that both countries would take all necessary measures to ensure its funding while its share price collapsed and the specter of a rollback.

Following a board meeting of an emergency, the Franco-Belgian bank said in the night to consider measures to enable it to strengthen its financial structure, without, however, categorically rule out the scenario of a split, what 'She was still there just a few days.

Dexia shares had lost up to 38% in the morning Tuesday, reaching its lowest historical levels, then some limit its losses by early afternoon.

Around 2:00 p.m., Dexia lost 13.5% to 1.12 euro, while the European index of banks, although affected by the new fears of Greek sovereign debt, limiting its losses to 4.6%.The stock has lost 54% since the beginning of the year, bringing its market capitalization of 2.2 billion euros.

The scenario of a dismantling of Dexia as structural solution to the financial difficulties of the Franco-Belgian bank has not been formally denied by the Belgian or French.

A French government source said, however, "reject" this term, preferring to speak of a major asset disposal.

The group is mainly composed of a retail bank in Belgium, a private bank in Luxembourg, a division of funding for local authorities in France and banking Denizbank in Turkey.

Meeting in Luxembourg for a council of the European Union finance ministers Belgian and French said the two countries brought their guarantee to finance Dexia without specifying the terms of the transaction.

GUARANTEED FINANCING

"We guarantee funding.For the procedures, there are instances, let the time to organize these deliberative bodies (…) All we are saying is that states will meet present as in 2008, "said Baroin to press.

The question of a recapitalization by the States, would constitute a de facto quasi-nationalization has not been formally excluded.

"Everything will depend on the scheme presented by the management of Dexia," said his side the Belgian Minister of Finance.

Speculation about the future of Dexia also include the creation of a "bad bank", a bad bank that would separate confined bond portfolios at risk for the bank.

The creation of a new French bank – which would lean part of the portfolio of loans to local Dexia to those of the Deposit and the Post Bank – also seems likely.

The possibility of a sale to another Dexia European banking group, on the model of Fortis sold to BNP Paribas, has not favored by analysts, investors, stressing that Dexia is not salable as such.

The announcement Sunday that Greece would not take the objectives of fiscal consolidation has aroused the distrust of investors and markets, accelerating the pressure on the most vulnerable groups such as Dexia.

It would be more optimistic. But this week, what looked like vile premonitions markets began to be realized. Back to the bad news that destabilized the stock markets. A trader at the New York Stock Exchange, September 22, 2011. The Fed and the IMF say they fear a recession

If grants are all black is that they painted a very grim future. The IMF had laid the groundwork earlier this week by revising down its forecast strong global growth, and considering the "worst case scenario", a recession in major developed countries that would eventually weigh on emerging markets.While the IMF does not make his case a priority – rather table it is growing very soft, the risk has become more consistency Wednesday with what the Fed's emphasis on "continuing weakness" of the labor market United States and the "significant risks" associated with "pressure on global financial markets." This pessimism was immediately stunned the markets. And the more they learned that private sector activity in the euro area was recorded in September, its first decline in two years. And that manufacturing activity had declined in China. If even the Middle Kingdom began to fail …

The failure of Greece is similar

Athens is back to the wall. For the loan of 8 billion euros of its creditors and avoid failure in October, Greece has agreed to a new "social massacre" which includes a tax on income from 416 euros per month.Moreover, the second aid plan in advance of July 21 at idle. Europe seems unable to speed up, as shown by the peak in Poland last weekend. And despite the talk of intentions, the scenario of the failure seems inevitable. Greek media have raised the idea on Friday the government to cancel 50% of the debt. Which would lead to a loss of 25 billion euros for Greek banks, most of which have just been degraded by Moody's. The announcement was immediately denied by the government. Until when?

Standard & Poors downgraded the debt rating Italian

This is a first for the boot, Standard & Poor's downgraded the rating on Monday of the Italian debt. This decision did not sway the markets, which expected, but investors fear the domino effect.Growth prospects of the country are particularly likely to be sealed by the new austerity plan of 54.2 billion euros. In turn, Moody's announced that it would degrade Italy "in the coming months." Rome is not the only "lame duck" of Europe. Portugal, already qualified for a loan of 78 billion euros, is in trouble after the discovery of an undeclared debt 1, 68 billion euros. As for Slovenia, she saw the note be degraded by Moody's on Friday. Only Ireland, recovering, doing well with the announcement Thursday of a 1.6% growth in the second quarter. Rare enough to be highlighted …

Brussels acknowledges the need to recapitalize banks

After weeks of procrastination, public authorities have come to settle international: Some European banks will be recapitalized.After Christine Lagarde, who launched the attack late August, the EU has abdicated this week. The IMF, which recommends that banks can recapitalize directly from EFSF, it is estimated that 300 million bill from the Greek crisis for the banking sector. According to the British press, 16 banks have failed those tests fail to stress – be in the viewfinder of EBA (EBA). But the French, who are yet in the heart of stock market panic, would not be affected. Such as Germany and Spain, France is reluctant to inject new funds to banks on the pretext that they are not facing a crisis of solvency but liquidity. If, as apprehensive markets, Greece is lacking, and that Italy and Portugal a restructuring of their debt, they will not escape.

The United States deplored the European fiscal discipline

The more one goes into the crisis and is more visible: the states are powerless to solve the problems because they are unable to agree. For weeks, markets expect strong political positions. Instead, the summits are linked together without any serious decision is taken. Just this week, the Ministers of Finance of the euro area have found themselves in Poland, and Washington for the opening dinner of the G20 finance. But each time, markets would have found that the more anxious. In addition to the severe lack of European governance, the divisions seem more and stronger on one side and across the Atlantic. The United States to Europe including blaming his fiscal discipline, almost incompatible with the maintenance of growth. A conundrum that nobody wants to decide.Not even the IMF, very poor matchmaker. On Thursday, Christine Lagarde has merely conceded to each other, supporting Barack Obama's plan for employment (447 billion), and commending the efforts of countries involved in the decrease of budget deficit …

Operation Twist Fed is pschitt

The markets had placed too much hope in the meeting of the Fed's Sept. 20. They had been dreaming that her boss, Ben Bernanke, went out of his hat and decisive action to support the U.S. economy. Whereby they have had the formalization of the launch of Operation Twist. This is for the Fed to exchange $ 400 billion in Treasury bonds against short-term securities with longer maturities. The objective of this hocus-pocus giant is to influence the rate of long-term interest to encourage business investment and private individuals.Problem, it is an indirect incentive does not offer assurance of effectiveness. In addition, if the technique is clever, it reveals above all the lack of leeway for the Fed can not lower its rates or already virtually zero, or purchase of new Treasury bills. In other words, after the operation Twist, the U.S. central bank is disarmed. What is worrying the markets.

Faced with strong pressure on financial markets and fears of a relapse of the economy in recession, the Federal Reserve prepares to influence long rates to support economic activity, an action similar to that conducted in the years 60 and then christened "Operation Twist".

With an eye on the sinking of the crisis of sovereign debt in Europe and another on an unemployment rate fails to fall below 9% in the U.S., the Fed, whose monetary policy committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, is expected to gradually change the composition of its balance sheet in order to increase the share of long-term securities.

While interest rates in the short term are close to zero and that the balance was weighted by purchasing debt securities for more than 2.000 billion dollars without conclusive effect on the economy for now, the Fed should look to support new ways of focusing on its balance sheet on the long-term bonds at the expense of short titles.

"The signal that the Fed is still active in supporting growth," said Michelle Meyer, economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

A series of disappointing economic indicators were dampened hopes for an accelerated growth in the second half in the United States, after a first half of the year without momentum.

U.S. growth was 1.0% annual rate in the first half and representatives from the Fed announced a downward revision of economic forecasts.

The weaker growth outlook in the summer had led the Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke to announce at the end of last month that the work of the Monetary Policy Committee would take place over two days in September rather than alone.

United States, the loss of the AAA, announced August 6 by the rating agency Standard & Poor's in light of the political divisions in the consolidation of public finances, caused a shock to business confidence and households.

In August, the U.S. economy has not created any employment and retail sales stagnated.

CONSENSUS

At the same time the crisis of sovereign debt in the euro area has increased and the lowering surprise a notch by S & P notes short and long term of Italy, still on negative watch by Moody's, fueled fears of contagion fueled by the situation in Greece.

Other central banks have inflected their monetary policy to reflect the deteriorating global economic environment during the summer.

The European Central Bank kept its rates unchanged last week and reported at least a pause in the recovery cycle that began in April.The central banks of Canada, South Korea and Indonesia among others have given to tighten monetary conditions.

Within the Fed, the consensus of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee seems to have shifted in favor of a change in the balance sheet structure, the total reached 2800 billion, to lengthen their maturity.

The objective of this initiative is to influence long rates to lower the cost of housing finance for households and investment for businesses.

Further reducing long-term rates, the Fed could also encourage investors to look to assets with better returns theory, such as stocks or corporate bonds.

Representatives from the Fed could consider more radical alternatives such as targeting a level of employment, growth or price beyond the current target inflation while the booking if the economy were to deteriorate significantly.

Representatives of the Fed, however, divided on the need for further action.Any further easing, even the simple extension of the maturity of the balance sheet, should be rejected by three members of the Monetary Policy Committee as was the case Aug. 9, when the Fed had decided to extend until at least mid- 2013 the period during which it would keep interest rates at a very low level.

If Ben Bernanke will be keen to get the widest possible consensus on any new initiative, economists do not expect that dissenting voices are a barrier to action.

The Greek authorities have promised Sunday drastic measures to avoid non-payment of debt interest payments and get the next tranche of international aid, but have not announced anything new.

George Papandreou, head of government, gave up a visit to the United States to chair a cabinet meeting on the eve of a crucial deadline for the release of this new installment.

His finance minister Evangelos Venizelos will present Monday, as part of a teleconference, the plan of fiscal consolidation to inspectors of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which will decide whether to release the eight billion euros, of which Athens will be needed in October.

After the Council of Ministers, Evangelos Venizelos stressed the need for budgetary targets for 2011 and 2012, and the deficit next year.

"I want to avoid a default.To stabilize the situation, to remain in the euro area (…), we must make strategic decisions, "he said without further detail.

The government will meet again after his meeting with the inspectors to detail the measures adopted.

Fault of payment of that portion of eight billion euros, Greece is insolvent next month.

This week, the government blamed the widening deficit in a recession stronger than expected and decided to impose a new property tax which he expects around two billion euros per year.

The "troika" formed by the inspectors of the IMF, the EU and the European Central Bank (ECB) may, however, that this tax does not change the situation and really requires more information on how the government intends to do it to correct the public accounts.

"The troika believes that the recently announced property tax alone will not bridge the budget deficit and pushed for conservation measures, downsizing and wage in the public sector," said a senior Greek.

OPPOSITION wants to renegotiate

International donors are also concerned about the lack of political consensus on how to implement out of the crisis.The conservative New Democracy, spurred by a growing popular discontent after two years of austerity, propose them, measures to boost growth.

Their leader Antonis Samaras called Saturday for early elections, saying that the path followed so far produced no results despite the sacrifices required of the population.

"A renegotiation with our donors to stimulate the economy is a condition to get out of this crisis," he said Sunday at a news conference.

The Socialist Party of George Papandreou has a majority in parliament, but internal differences associated with radical protests against the austerity could lead to early elections, say some observers.

In an interview with Bild am Sonntag, the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble considers that Greece must have a clear mind about his future in the euro area.

"Belonging to a currency union is an opportunity but also a heavy burden. The measures to align its very difficult and the Greeks must decide whether to bear this burden," he said.

"No one should kid ourselves: without a positive assessment by the troika of the commitments of Greece, the next installment will be paid.So the Greeks must have numbers proving that they stick to the plan. "

His French counterpart Francois Baroin recalled his part that the plan of aid to Greece was a loan, not a gift, save for the euro.

"The observers are in place, they continue their work.Greece knows what she has to do it we have said, she has commitments, she has duties vis-à-vis its creditors, it has the requirement to provide answers. "

In the meantime, the Greek newspaper Kathimerini writes Athens plans to make the country's banks credit guarantees of up to about thirty billion to enable them to access the emergency stop of the central bank.

Excluded from the interbank market, Greek banks have become dependent on the ECB for their refinancing, borrowing in its operations in the money market, in exchange for guarantees in the form of sovereign bonds and other assets.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB), as expected, Thursday maintained its monetary policy at zero, but significantly lowered its estimates for growth and inflation.

The SNB lowered its growth forecast of gross domestic product (GDP) now expects an increase between 1.5 and 2% in 2011 instead of 2% "about".

It relies now on a 0.4% inflation in 2011 and a deflation of 0.3% for 2012 as it foresaw in June respectively rates of 0.9% and 1%. For 2013, the central bank refers to a price increase of 0.5% versus 1.7% previously.

The SNB justifies its decision by explaining that it expected GDP growth will stop in the second half.It recalls that in Switzerland, the development of the economy "is hampered both by the strength of the franc and the decline in foreign demand."

The SNB repeat it "will prevail over the floor of 1.20 francs per euro, fixed on September 6, with all the required determination." She intends to keep the total deposits on demand well above 200 billion francs.

"Without the stabilizing effects of the floor price, the risk of recession would be significant," she warns.

The central bank believes, however, that even at 1.20 franc per euro, the franc is at a high level."If the economic outlook and the risks of deflation required by the National Bank will take additional steps," she adds.

She noted that the downside risks could occur at price stability if the franc were to cease to weaken.

The SNB has kept its rate fluctuation corridor Libor in Swiss francs at three months from 0 to 0.25%, which was expected by 34 economists polled by Reuters.

Italy must complete structural reforms and implement the commitment made last month to reduce the deficit and make the economy more flexible, wants the President of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet.

In an interview published Friday by the financial daily Il Sole 24 Ore, the chairman of the ECB considers that the measures announced in Rome on August 5 is "extremely important".

Council President Silvio Berlusconi had promised then to bring the Italian budget balance for 2013.

"It is therefore essential that the stated objectives for the improvement of public finances are fully confirmed and implemented," said Jean-Claude Trichet.

The latter made no direct comment on the economic plan of 45.5 billion currently being debated in the Italian Parliament, merely to emphasize the importance of Rome to implement measures enhancing the entire national capacity in the medium and long term.

He however reiterated his call to the governments of the euro area to address the weaknesses of their economies and strengthen mutual surveillance and governance.

"The European states must correct the current situation," he said.

Asked about the prospects for creation of Euro-bonds common to all countries of the monetary union, he said that the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) already issued securities backed by the European authorities.

"The key message of the Board of Governors is a call for rapid implementation, full of decisions taken by Heads of State and Government of Europe July 21," said the president of the ECB.

Politicians and officers European banks are again headwind against the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the banking system of the European Union suffers from a lack of capital.

According to a European source, the IMF estimates that European banks may face a lack of equity of around EUR 200 billion to address the crisis of sovereign debt in the euro area and slowing growth.

Last Saturday at the annual meetings of the Federal Reserve, the IMF director Christine Lagarde had called for a recapitalization "substantial" financial institutions in Europe.

This quarrel between the institution of Washington and European leaders illustrates the differences on the health of the European banking sector.

The IASB, the International Accounting Standards Board, also issued this week reservations about the methods of valuation of government debt used by some European banks.

The European Commission has however reiterated that the EU did not need to recapitalize its banks beyond what was decided in July after the results of stress tests conducted by the EBA (EBA ).

"Our analysis of the situation has not changed.It is in fact shared by the Member States, "said a spokesman for the European Commission." We had a discussion on the results of stress tests of banks. It is our diagnosis and there is no reason to change it. "

"We are aware of these figures (the IMF, Ed) but we think they have serious methodological flaws.There are discussions on the subject with the IMF "has in turn informed an official source in the euro area who requested anonymity.

BANKS REACT

The German and French banks have also responded by ensuring they were adequately capitalized.

"French banks are well capitalized," said a Reuters spokesman for the French Banking Federation (FBF)."They have increased their capitalization since the crisis."

When the MEDEF Summer University in Jouy-en-Josas (Yvelines), the budget minister Valérie Pécresse also indicated that French banks had sufficient capital.

"I believe that there is no concern to be for French banks," said the minister, echoing the words of the Minister of Economy, Baroin Wednesday night on France 3.

Earlier in the morning, German banks felt that the fears of the IMF on a possible lack of capital were not justified.

"Banks are well capitalized," said Michael Kemmer, director of the professional federation BdB, in an interview with German daily Die Welt.

The BdB represents some 210 private banks including Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank.

"We do not understand how the IMF comes to these conclusions," he responded in turn the Federation of German public banks VoeB.

Earlier in the week, the EBA (EBA) was also reported that banks in the European Union did not need to be massively re-capitalized.

Concerns about the crisis of debt in the euro area and the worsening economic climate, however, continue to weigh on European financial stocks in the euro area.

In Paris, Crédit Agricole and BNP Paribas, highly exposed to sovereign debt of the peripheral countries of the euro area, and drop between 23% and 29% since the beginning of the year. The European banking index was down nearly 26% since January 1.