Top Economics News

German exports in December accused their most marked decline in almost three years, the first sign that the euro area economy has suffered heavily in the last quarter of re percussion of the debt crisis.

But the figures of the Federal Bureau of Statistics also show that exports have reached record levels in all of 2011, and, according to the latest predictors, the German economy is back on track after a brief contraction.

"Earlier this year, the outlook for the German economy is better, while the global economy gathers momentum and the uncertainty surrounding the debt crisis eases ", Ulrike Rondorf analysis, economist at Commerzbank. 

The euro stood Wednesday peaks several weeks against the dollar and the yen, investors hoping to make Greece the austerity measures demanded in return for a second bailout.

On a seasonally adjusted, German exports fell 4.3% in December, their most marked decline since January 2009. Economists polled by Reuters on average expected a decline of only 1.0%.

The trade surplus has settled to 13.9 billion euros after 14.9 billion (revised figure) in the previous month and 14.0 billion expected.

THINNING FOR

The German economy, export-oriented, quickly recovered from the 2008-2009 financial crisis but the budgetary problems of the euro area and the global economic downturn have clouded his growth prospects.

The first official estimate reported a contraction of 0.25% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter and German economic indicators in December were more still bad as feared. 

Industrial production in December suffered its biggest decline since early 2009, heavily disappointing expectations.

Economists were betting on domestic demand to support the economy and anticipated imports up 0.6% in December, but they fell 3.9%.

The trade surplus of Germany, however, reached 158.1 billion euros in 2011, after 154.9 billion in 2010.

This contrasts sharply with the trade deficit of France, which last year reached a record 69.6 billion euros.

The economic forecast surveys also suggest that the slump in the German economy will be short lived. 

The business climate has improved in January for the third consecutive month, while consumer confidence in the horizon of February rose against all odds at its highest level in ten months.

Over the full year 2011, German exports exceed 1,000 billion euros. And the trend is rising: industrial goods orders rose 1.7% in December, despite the erosion of demand from the euro area on the bottom of the debt crisis.

"With the 2008 financial crisis, the importance of different export markets of Germany has changed somewhat, declining slightly in Europe and the rest of gaining importance worldwide, "said Anton Börner, director of industrial consolidation BGA.

The rapid increase of the debt crisis in the euro area threatens the credit ratings of all European states, warned Sunday the U.S. rating agency Moody's. Moody's in New York.

In a "special comment" on European countries published Sunday, Moody's says it still considers that the euro area will maintain its unity without any fault as that of Greece, but notes that even this' scenario 'positive' carries consequences very negative for the notes "of European countries. The U.S. rating agency, recently warned that France could lose its "triple A" allowing it to borrow at favorable rates in the markets, and clearly indicates that no country, even among those considered most solids, such as the Netherlands, Austria, Finland or Germany, is immune to a lowering of note.

Other countries may need help

While countries such as Italy and Hungary have more and more difficult to obtain financing at rates viable markets, Moody's wrote that "the political momentum to implement an effective solution to the crisis could n ' be found after a series of shocks, which could lead more countries to be deprived of access to funding markets for an extended period. " The agency is referring to countries like Ireland, Greece, Portugal or Hungary, which have benefited from one or more financial rescue from the European Union or the International Monetary Fund. She said other countries may need to use this kind of solution if the EU fails to quickly find an adequate response to the crisis, these countries would then most likely lowered their rating to that of a investment "speculative."

Thirty-six, 38, 42 and maybe tomorrow as 50 per month when Airbus increases production rates of its single-aisle aircraft, it's party time for subcontractors in the aerospace industry.Unless the funds to finance the necessary investment will come running out.

These suppliers, some of which also work for Boeing in the interest of diversification, are technically ready to follow the ups cadence, but sometimes have difficulty obtaining financing from their bankers, actors and observers believe the industry.

Driven by the boom in Asian demand swells order books, manufacturers accelerate the pace, especially in the aisle – the segment of medium-haul flights of 150 seats – the most lucrative and most promising of the civil aviation with a value estimated at some 2,000 billion over the next 20 years.The 'supply chain' will fit, maybe it will grind a bit in the ramp-up, but we adapt, "he told Reuters Jean-Claude Maillard, CEO and founder of Figeac Aero, under contractor to Airbus, which finds that up to 48 or 50 units per month is "quite possible".

He echoed the statements of President of the Group of aerospace equipment and defense (GEAD), Olivier Zarrouati – also CEO of Zodiac Aerospace – who recently told Reuters that a growing number of production plants for OEMs keep up the pace aircraft manufacturer was not required.

"You can go to heaven, there is no limit", says David Bonnus, aerospace expert with the firm Step Consulting.

Greece wants a solution to their debt problems that would apply to all of its debt maturing until 2035, said Monday a government source.

"We think of all the Greek debt, expiring until 2035, not 2020 as planned in the previous plan," the source said, adding that "nothing can be done without the European Central Bank ".

Leaders of the 17 euro zone members must agree by the EU summit Wednesday on how the second aid package granted to Greece, including a marked discount on Greek bonds held by the private sector , which represent the 200 billion euros.

"We oppose any unilateral action that could be interpreted as a reconstruction of the debt," the source said.

Whatever emerges from the top of Wednesday, Greek banks are not nationalized, also said the source.

According to the information that leaked a report on the debt of Greece by international inspectors, it seems that the second aid package of € 109 billion agreed in July is no longer sufficient unless private investors n 'accept a discount of 60% on their Greek bonds.

Without it, it would take more than 250 billion euros for Greece is solvent, say economists.

The new organization called the head of Renault after the false spy case will come into force on 2 November as planned and strengthen the power of the CEO Carlos Ghosn with the aim to avoid the fiasco of the early recurrence in 2011.

Two audits were presented last April to the board of the diamond group to shed light on the failures that led to falsely accuse several of its executives of industrial espionage.An audit was conducted in-house and one by the firm Bearing Point.

Among the organizational changes confirmed Friday night in a brief statement included a redesign of the security service of Renault, who was at the heart of the case that began in January and now suspected to be a scam.

The new management of protection and prevention group, the prerogatives extended, will be led by Eric the Great, who was previously a function similar to the Post Office.But in the future to reduce the risk of error, the direction will be doubly locked with the appointment of an Inspector General, Jean-Marc Berlioz, who led a time IGPN (General Inspectorate of the National Police), and who will report directly to the CEO.

"President Carlos Ghosn had communicated its intention to implement all the report's findings as soon as possible," it said in a statement from Renault.

The new organization also confirms the reunification of HRD and the enlargement of the former General Secretariat (support functions, management and legal protection group, the famous security service), Mouna Sepehri told.Both services are now placed directly under the authority of Carlos Ghosn, and not under that of his number two as in the previous architecture.

The responsibilities of the new Chief Operating Officer Carlos Tavares are reduced compared to those of his predecessor Patrick Pélata, ousted after the affair.

Carlos Ghosn turns his back on a tandem operation that has punctuated the history of Renault with famous couples, like the one formed by CEO Louis Schweitzer and the Secretary General Michel de Virville in the 1990s.

So far, Carlos Ghosn had seemed like a time to step back and focus on long-term strategy of the Renault-Nissan, and had delegated for this purpose from 2008 operational direction of the diamond group at Patrick Pélata.

"It's a good thing he is more responsible for Renault, he made it clear from the case that the company was within its responsibility, and employees expect there to be a boss and a single" said a source told Reuters the company.

The state, which owns 15% of Renault, has never hidden its displeasure over the matter.Renault said Friday that Veronica Dosdat named director of public affairs, will be responsible for defending the interests of the group with public authorities in France and worldwide.

REDESIGN THE COMMUNICATION

Audits of spring had never accepted the responsibility of the CEO of Renault.The two reports believed that the president of the company was not part of those "who played a key role in the investigation of the case and / or the anchoring of the belief that it was a case of corruption.

Carlos Ghosn had however provided in January at 20 hours of TF1 that he had "certainty" and evidence "multiple" to support the dismissal of executives.

The espionage case ultimately led to the indictment of Dominique Gevrey, one of the security officials of Renault for organized fraud.The executives were charged for their compensation and, for two of them returned to Renault.

The audit also recommends the establishment of a new management expanded audit and risk management, reporting directly to Carlos Ghosn, whose spokeswoman for Renault said it would be entrusted to Farid Aractingi, who held this function in the previous version of the chart.

Mouna Sepheri had also given the task of learning from the management of the crisis in communications.The audit criticized the internal and external communications have left no room for doubt for several weeks, the group announced Friday the appointment of a new communications director e, in the person of the automotive journalist Florence Goldfiem.

Standard & Poor's Tuesday lowered a notch credit rating of ten Spanish banks, including the two largest in the country, pointing to the darkening economic prospects and a housing market still depressed.

Fitch Ratings has reduced its share shortly after the note of six banks in the wake of its decision, announced Friday, to lower the rating of Spain by two notches to AA-.

Among the banks downgraded by S & P are Santander and BBVA, key institutions of the country.Their two notes back from AA to AA-and carry a negative outlook.

S & P also revised the rating outlook for four banks, reducing it from stable to negative, and placed the bank under review with negative implications.

The prospect of all banks rated by S & P is now negative, meaning that further declines are possible notes.

Fitch, Banco Santander fell from AA to AA-and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) from AA-to A +.

Other banks involved include Banco Popular Espanol to BBB +. This note is placed under review with negative implications because of its exchange offer launched on Banco Pastor.

A few days after the piracy suffered by Areva, Paillou Patrick, the patron of the National Security Information Systems, was called to order hexagonal businesses and governments. He said protection systems are "permeable" and "abandoned." A participant of the Chaos Communication Congress, held in Berlin in December 2010.

Computer protection systems administration and French companies are they permeable? In any case, the conviction of Patrick Pailloux, the executive director of the National Security Information Systems (ANSSI). He called to order Friday in Monaco these companies and administrations judging their systems "in danger". "The situation can not remain as it is, information systems are in danger and we sometimes feel they were abandoned to their fate," said Mr Pailloux.

In his closing conference on security and information systems of Monaco, which were held from October 5 to 7, he was willing to cite any company. But the speech comes just days after French nuclear giant Areva has admitted being the victim of a cyber attack. The hackers had required the intervention of the ANSSI agency attached to the General Secretariat of Defence and National Security, a service of prime minister. Areva has ensured that the attack was focused on "non-critical information and not on sensitive information."

"We are far from the account. The situation everyday reality on the ground, is that our information services are often porous, and that malicious actors have benefited greatly.We often security loincloth, who does not eat bread and that ultimately does not bother anyone "insists the director general of ANSSI. And to prevent him:" we must take back control of our own systems, it no fatality, it's possible because it is not that difficult. We must mobilize to ensure that safety rules are followed. "

Dexia shares on the stock market plunged Monday after the decision of the rating agency Moody's placed the debt rating of the Franco-Belgian bank on negative watch.

Moody's justified its decision by concerns about the liquidity of the group while the refinance market conditions remain very tight.

A Dexia spokesman declined to comment on the decision of the agency.

On Tuesday, Fitch Ratings had already announced that it lowered its rating.

At 11:15, Dexia signed the worst performance of the European sector index banks – down by 4.11% – a decrease of 8.43%.

The announcement Sunday that Greece would not take the objectives of fiscal consolidation has aroused the distrust of investors and markets.

The decision by Moody's is also involved as speculation about the future of Dexia in full swing.

The institution admitted consider options to strengthen its balance sheet but has ruled out any split in the group.

Finance ministers Belgian and French are to meet Monday night and Tuesday as part of the European meetings of the Eurogroup and tell the Ecofin.

If some press reports indicate that Baroin and Didier Reynders must address the issue, a spokesman said it no special meeting was scheduled between the two men.

Scenarios ranging from the sale of assets to a breakdown of the group were mentioned in the press in recent days.

Dexia, which was saved from bankruptcy in fall 2008 after the collapse of U.S. bank Lehman Brothers, in the second quarter 2011 loss of four billion euros, the heaviest in its history.

The current account deficit widened from France in July to 4.5 billion euros from 3.4 billion in June, preliminary figures show released Tuesday by the Bank of France.

The trade deficit in goods reached 6.7 billion, one billion more than the previous month.

Trade in services have in parallel a surplus of 1.2 billion, down slightly from June.

The balance of revenue reached 3.2 billion euros from 3.0 billion while the deficit on current transfers remained unchanged at 2.2 billion.

The financial account showed net outflows of direct investments of 8.5 billion euros from 6.2 billion in June.

French direct investment abroad stand at 4.3 billion, the Bank of France said in a statement, "while an exceptional operation makes the negative balance of foreign investment in France: the purchase by a French group of significant foreign participation. "

Portfolio investment recorded net inflows of 5.3 billion euros residents reduced their holdings of 16.0 billion while non-residents making sales of French securities to 10.7 billion.

Other investment posted a net outflow of capital limited to 5.3 billion from net outflows of 49.0 billion.

In addition, dissemination of minutes at 18:00 GMT of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve, August 9, will tell if the leaders of the central bank were unanimous on the decision to keep interest rates near zero for at least two years.

Values, The News International title fell by 1.76% on opening. Counsel for the media empire of Rupert Murdoch are investigating the journalistic practices of all the British newspapers of the group, reported sources familiar with the matter.