Top Economics News

After the loss of triple A, the real estate professionals were inclined rather to an increase in lending rates. But the opposite occurs in February, according to the online broker best rate.

Contrary to the fears widely reported by the loss of triple-A, mortgage rates are down slightly for this month. This is apparent from a study of online broker, Meilleurtaux.com. In February, 45% of banks show declines of 0.15 points on average, 31% have left the stable. Only 24% have made gains. Overall, the average credit rate stood at 4.28% against 4.31% in January.

OAT rates down

"We do not expect this result" surprising Sandrine Allonier, head of economic research meilleurtaux.com. It must be said that the rate of OAT (comparable Treasury obligations), that is to say the rate at which France takes the 10-year bond has not increased. The Hexagon borrows at preferential rates. And on the contrary, it borrows a better rate. "For example, in February it reached 2.89%, whereas before the loss of the triple A, it was 3.40%," says Sandrine Allonier. Second explanation, the rates of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the interbank rate, the interest rate charged between banks themselves, remain stable. Finally, the loss of the AAA had been anticipated by financial markets and banks have rebuilt their capital. Consequently, they can lower their lending rates long and short term.

March, the month in real estate transactions

"Presumably, this slight decline will continue in March, one month is very rich in real estate transactions." Banks are trying to position themselves in relation to competition. Hence their strategy to attract new customers by lower lending rates in the long and short term. "Some had rates at 4.30%, which rose 4% in February. These banks want to take their game," said Ms. Allonier. Before continuing, "the banks are still selective about the cases. All require a contribution of 10%."

Apply for credit up

The increase in the number of credit reports is the second conclusion of the study meilleurtaux.com. A figure up 20% compared with December, while still down 2% year on year. Borrowers do not turn away the real estate market. There are still a safe haven, especially since many of them expect lower prices in 2012, "the order of 5% in some areas," said Sandrine Allonier. However, "there is a caution for future buyers: they are occasionally more likely to assess their borrowing capacity before they have found a property. Those who led a project with a signed sales agreement fell 4% over a year. "

Exchanges in the euro area have closed down sharply Friday, with the G20 summit concluded its work without any major decision, and especially without a concrete solution to the debt crisis in the eurozone.

In Paris the CAC-40 lost 2.25% to 3123.55 points. For the week, it yields 6.72%. The other major European markets also ended down: London and Frankfurt lost 0.33% 2.72%. Of the European indices, Eurofirst 300 finally lost 1.02%.

The Wall Street players show the same skepticism, resulting in losses of more than 1% for the three major Dow Jones, S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, despite the employment statistics rather positive.

"The G20 has not entered into by major decisions. It was a big problem with Italy," says one vendor."There is no visibility," he said, adding that the new EU stability "is not forthcoming."

Alexandre Le Drogoff, technical analyst at Aurel BGC, said the "bear market" comes back and that "the current decline in prices should lead to lower annual test" (2693 for the CAC 40, 1935 for the Eurostoxx 50).

The euro transplanted nose against the dollar and appears on course to acknowledge its biggest weekly loss since mid-September, traders in the largest remaining uncertainty about the bailout of Greece in preparation for the vote of confidence.

The Bund future was up, taking advantage of the lack of commitment of the G20 countries on strengthening the participation EFSF, especially after the statements of German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Greece wants a solution to their debt problems that would apply to all of its debt maturing until 2035, said Monday a government source.

"We think of all the Greek debt, expiring until 2035, not 2020 as planned in the previous plan," the source said, adding that "nothing can be done without the European Central Bank ".

Leaders of the 17 euro zone members must agree by the EU summit Wednesday on how the second aid package granted to Greece, including a marked discount on Greek bonds held by the private sector , which represent the 200 billion euros.

"We oppose any unilateral action that could be interpreted as a reconstruction of the debt," the source said.

Whatever emerges from the top of Wednesday, Greek banks are not nationalized, also said the source.

According to the information that leaked a report on the debt of Greece by international inspectors, it seems that the second aid package of € 109 billion agreed in July is no longer sufficient unless private investors n 'accept a discount of 60% on their Greek bonds.

Without it, it would take more than 250 billion euros for Greece is solvent, say economists.

Banks must be better capitalized to avoid an escalation of the crisis that would be caused by a financial collapse, said Sunday the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble on the ZDF television, adding that banks no longer trust the to each other.

"We need better regulation and better capitalization of banks," he said.

"Everyone will not like this, but it is the best way there is no escalation of the crisis caused by a collapse of the banking system."

"The cause of this crisis is too much debt, but we must fight the danger of contagion. We must simply recognize that banks currently have more trust towards each other, so the market Banking is not working as it should.The best way to combat this is a better recapitalization. "

France and Belgium flew Tuesday to rescue Dexia, ensuring that both countries would take all necessary measures to ensure its funding while its share price collapsed and the specter of a rollback.

Following a board meeting of an emergency, the Franco-Belgian bank said in the night to consider measures to enable it to strengthen its financial structure, without, however, categorically rule out the scenario of a split, what 'She was still there just a few days.

Dexia shares had lost up to 38% in the morning Tuesday, reaching its lowest historical levels, then some limit its losses by early afternoon.

Around 2:00 p.m., Dexia lost 13.5% to 1.12 euro, while the European index of banks, although affected by the new fears of Greek sovereign debt, limiting its losses to 4.6%.The stock has lost 54% since the beginning of the year, bringing its market capitalization of 2.2 billion euros.

The scenario of a dismantling of Dexia as structural solution to the financial difficulties of the Franco-Belgian bank has not been formally denied by the Belgian or French.

A French government source said, however, "reject" this term, preferring to speak of a major asset disposal.

The group is mainly composed of a retail bank in Belgium, a private bank in Luxembourg, a division of funding for local authorities in France and banking Denizbank in Turkey.

Meeting in Luxembourg for a council of the European Union finance ministers Belgian and French said the two countries brought their guarantee to finance Dexia without specifying the terms of the transaction.

GUARANTEED FINANCING

"We guarantee funding.For the procedures, there are instances, let the time to organize these deliberative bodies (…) All we are saying is that states will meet present as in 2008, "said Baroin to press.

The question of a recapitalization by the States, would constitute a de facto quasi-nationalization has not been formally excluded.

"Everything will depend on the scheme presented by the management of Dexia," said his side the Belgian Minister of Finance.

Speculation about the future of Dexia also include the creation of a "bad bank", a bad bank that would separate confined bond portfolios at risk for the bank.

The creation of a new French bank – which would lean part of the portfolio of loans to local Dexia to those of the Deposit and the Post Bank – also seems likely.

The possibility of a sale to another Dexia European banking group, on the model of Fortis sold to BNP Paribas, has not favored by analysts, investors, stressing that Dexia is not salable as such.

The announcement Sunday that Greece would not take the objectives of fiscal consolidation has aroused the distrust of investors and markets, accelerating the pressure on the most vulnerable groups such as Dexia.

The new acting director general of the Swiss bank UBS, which replaces Oswald Grübel after the latter resigned in the wake of the scandal of unauthorized transactions, must now face the difficult task of setting back on their feet.

Saturday, Sergio Ermotti said that the case had uncovered an exposure "totally unacceptable" and said his priority would be to review the control procedures of the bank and conduct an internal investigation into heavy losses.

Sergio Ermotti, a Swiss Ticino aged 51, joined UBS in April from the Italian bank UniCredit.

According to the group's president, Kaspar Villiger, it would be a good candidate to permanently replace Oswald Grübel.

"We are aware of facing a difficult time externally, and this latest incident only makes more imperative still a reaction from us. Let us not, however, UBS is one of the best banks capitalized in the world, "said Sergio Ermotti.

Since the announcement of the losses on September 15, the title UBS has sold more than 10%.However, it has taken 4.8% Friday on hopes that the Board of Directors of the bank agrees major restructuring.

The internal investigation into the loss should result in a delay of 10 to 14 days, but because of external investigations, UBS will not necessarily reveal the findings, said Sergio Ermotti.

The Board asked the latter to accelerate the reduction of investment banking activities.The process must be detailed on November 17 in New York.

According to Kaspar Villiger, the future director of investment banking, Carsten Kengeter, is not threatened, the latter having already worked with a "great job" to limit losses from unauthorized transactions.

However, he did not mean to say if it would make a good candidate for Director General, who shall be provided with permanently within six months.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB), as expected, Thursday maintained its monetary policy at zero, but significantly lowered its estimates for growth and inflation.

The SNB lowered its growth forecast of gross domestic product (GDP) now expects an increase between 1.5 and 2% in 2011 instead of 2% "about".

It relies now on a 0.4% inflation in 2011 and a deflation of 0.3% for 2012 as it foresaw in June respectively rates of 0.9% and 1%. For 2013, the central bank refers to a price increase of 0.5% versus 1.7% previously.

The SNB justifies its decision by explaining that it expected GDP growth will stop in the second half.It recalls that in Switzerland, the development of the economy "is hampered both by the strength of the franc and the decline in foreign demand."

The SNB repeat it "will prevail over the floor of 1.20 francs per euro, fixed on September 6, with all the required determination." She intends to keep the total deposits on demand well above 200 billion francs.

"Without the stabilizing effects of the floor price, the risk of recession would be significant," she warns.

The central bank believes, however, that even at 1.20 franc per euro, the franc is at a high level."If the economic outlook and the risks of deflation required by the National Bank will take additional steps," she adds.

She noted that the downside risks could occur at price stability if the franc were to cease to weaken.

The SNB has kept its rate fluctuation corridor Libor in Swiss francs at three months from 0 to 0.25%, which was expected by 34 economists polled by Reuters.

The opening Tuesday in Moscow MAKS air show and aerospace will be an opportunity for Russia to present its larger ambitions in the area, and perhaps to become the first customer of its own event.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit Wednesday to the show, held every other year, which will be particularly marked by the first public flights of the Russian fifth generation fighter, the T-50.

Manufacturers of public civil and military aircraft should also take this opportunity to unveil new orders as well as partnerships with industry giants such as Boeing.

Last month, President Dmitry Medvedev had a blow to the domestic industry by announcing the armed forces that they can now also buy weapons outside Russia.

Analysts said this trend could lead to new large acquisitions comparable to the purchase from France of two helicopter carrier Mistral class.

"Russia is seeking to strengthen its arms industry with new technologies.It seeks abroad, which could mean that Russia will buy more than it sold during the show, "said Ruslan Pukhov, director of research firm CAST Moscow.

HUNTERS, AND CIVIL AIRCRAFT HELICOPTERS

The news agency reported Vedomosti this month that Russia was seeking to buy at the show for three billion dollars to combat aircraft and training.

In total, the organizer Aviasalon expects contracts for a total of ten billion dollars were signed during the last week that the rally.

The previous edition in 2009 had already reached a similar amount.

Russia seeks to breathe new life into its defense industry, fell into disuse after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The Hunter T-50 is a belated effort and time and again pushed to compete with the F-22 co-developed by Lockheed Martin and Boeing.

Stealth, the T-50 is only the prototype of the fighter aircraft that Russia intends to eventually develop and mass produce in cooperation with its first export customer, India, for a contract estimated at $ 35 billion.

The conglomerate Russian Helicopters, which brings together eleven regional manufacturers of helicopters and continued production equipment brand Mil, should also announce at the show a series of contracts, primarily to Russian companies and the Ministry of Defence.

The civilian sector should also be highlighted, with probable orders of regional aircraft SuperJet 100, which has already registered 170.

Global stock markets fall Tuesday, down for the tenth straight session and lost 20% since early May, while gold steals record after record, the great volatility of markets prompting investors to accelerate the removal of risky assets.

The MSCI World Index, however, reduced its losses at midday, while still yielding 0.9%.

This rout, fueled by the fear of a relapse of the global economy and exacerbated by the loss of the "triple A" United States, increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve meets on Tuesday.The markets expect further quantitative easing to stimulate the economy.

European shares drop 2%.

As in previous days, the volumes are very important, representing nearly 90% of their daily average the last three months on the FTSEurofirst 300 by mid-day.On the DAX in Frankfurt and the CAC 40 in Paris, the volumes exceeded the average.

The plunge on Wall Street, who accused the scope of the deterioration of the American note and lost more than 5% Monday, was already distraught Asian markets.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei ended below 9000 points, after falling close to its lowest intraday hit in mid-March after the earthquake and tsunami.

More bad news fueled risk aversion in Asia, inflation in China emerged as stronger than expected in July.

In this context, gold has crossed the 1,778 dollars per ounce, and its price now exceeds that of platinum, traditionally higher because of its rarity.

Another safe haven, the Swiss franc has burst new caps against the euro and the dollar. The dollar hit a record low at 0.7359 francs on the platform EBS, while the euro fell to 1.0475 francs.

Fears of another recession like the previous days weigh on oil prices, losing more than two dollars a barrel.

Only about appeasement, bond yields in Italy and Spain continued to relax, investors expecting further redemptions of debt in both countries by the European Central Bank.

France and Belgium are likely to be in turn under pressure."In the end, Italy and Spain are out of the game, so we'll watch them on the side of Belgium and France – countries that are unprotected," warns another trader.

French bond yields climbed to 10 by 7.5 basis points on the session at 3.22%, the worst performance among the countries of the euro area.

Eramet announced Thursday a half-year trading profit in line with its expectations thanks to its efforts to improve its competitiveness and increase its turnover driven by alloys.

The mining group, specialist manganese and nickel, had announced in April that its half-year operating income should be at least equal to 341 million euros in the corresponding period of 2010 excluding items.

This result shows an increase of 7% to 366 million euros.Its sales increased 8% to 1.931 million, thanks to a 25% increase in the alloys, although manganese, which represents almost half of sales, was down 1%.

Analysts on average expected EBIT of 374 million euros and a turnover of 1.881 million, according to the Thomson Reuters consensus I / B / E / S.

The stock closed down 1.47% Wednesday to 204.4 euros, giving a market capitalization of 5.4 billion. It has fallen 20% since the beginning of the year.