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Moody's is more secure than the debt of France still deserves the highest rating possible. Degradation could occur in the next six months. The consequences for France and the euro area would be dramatic. The budget minister Valérie Pécresse and the Minister of Economy and Finance Baroin

The sacred triple A of France is under pressure: the rating agency Moody's announced Monday night that it planned to lower the perspective of the note lights. A warning to potentially dramatic consequences for France and for the euro area. Explanations.

Our triple-A is really threatened?

For now, Moody's said it just gave himself three months to determine whether his perspective "stable" was still warranted.The agency is careful to note that this review is part of its annual financial statements for France and it is not yet at this stage, a decision on the rating of the country. However, if the prospect of this note should be revised to "negative", this would imply that Moody's would likely reduce the medium-term (usually for a term of three to twelve months). France, would become the new big country, after the United States to lose the precious talisman financially.

This warning is justified? The presidential campaign hostage rating agencies?

The possibility of a deterioration in France is not a surprise. The warning from Moody's, yes. Rating agencies usually just an opinion or negative stable and degrade or maintain the rating. This is especially the timing is symbolic in three months, the campaign for the Elysee Palace in full swing.A negative outlook on the triple A French will become a major issue of debate. The presidential campaign of 2012 will therefore be under supervision of rating agencies. Read about the blog corridors Bercy.

Concerns about a possible deterioration in the sovereign rating lights are not new. France shows the worst ratios of budget club triple A. Government deficit (5.7% this year) exceeds the level of other triple-A in the euro area (Germany is 0.9%, Denmark 4.8%, Netherlands 3.9% Austria 3% and Sweden has a surplus of 1.5%). France, also displays a primary deficit (excluding debt burden) twice (3% of GDP) than its neighbors (1.6% in the Netherlands, Austria 0.9%, 0.5% Luxembourg, while Germany and Finland should generate a primary surplus this year).Finally, France is also one of the few members of the Triple A club to suffer from a deficit in its trade balance. Also, since the deterioration of the U.S. Standard & Poor's this summer, the French note seems undeserved. However, all agencies – including Moody's – had denied market rumors in August, reiterating that they maintained their confidence in the Triple A of France.

The context was it damaged?

Since this summer, nothing goes to France: there was no growth in the second quarter and looks just as sluggish by the end of the year, the euro area is still mired in the debt crisis and banks French are in the financial market turmoil. This is precisely what worries Moody's. It is "crucial" for France to maintain "investor confidence in its ability and willingness to deal with unexpected challenges," noted the agency in a statement.Or "France could face a number of challenges in the coming months – such as the need for additional support to other European countries or its own banking system, which could increase so significant commitments to be borne by the budget of the country, "she adds. In short: France has more financial flexibility. We understand better the current government reluctance to recapitalize its banks with public money and increase the discount to private creditors of Greece.

What consequences for France if they lose their triple A?

The fact benefit from the best possible rating allows France to borrow in the markets on very favorable terms to finance its debt. Lose this note would increase interest rates, so an increase in the cost of borrowing of the French state.The difference between the rates of French government bonds to 10 years (OAT) and German government securities of similar maturity (Bund) has also passed on Tuesday for the first time, a percentage point. At the same time, insurance against a default on the obligations of the French state (CDS) increased by 10 basis points. Currently, it costs 194,000 euros to insure against exposure to 10 million euros in French government bonds. France must make 8.6 billion euros of bonds by December and 179 billion in 2012 to renew its stock of debt. Direct consequence for the first time, the debt burden will be the first budget item next year, on top of School. According to government projections, it will amount to 48.77 billion euros. If France is losing its triple A, it could be more.Because unlike the United States, whose Treasury bills are still considered a safe haven, the obligations of the French state is not immune to a general distrust of investors, because of the context of European crisis.

And for Europe?

The loss of the triple A French would not be good news for the euro area. This would call into question the quality of borrower of the European Financial Stability (EFSF, which currently enjoys the highest rating possible), because France is the second largest guarantor. Now this tool is the cornerstone of the plan to end the crisis in the euro area. Moreover, France would potentially the camp of countries to aid those who need help.This would call into question the relationship quickly the Franco-German motor of advances in European governance, as both countries do more than talk on equal terms (triple A to triple A). The temptation would be great for the best students in the euro area to operate in a vacuum and cease to be in solidarity with the lower-rated countries. This would result in the breakup of the euro area.

Can we avoid losing our triple A?

"The continued commitment to implement economic reform measures and budget, and visible progress in the goals" for reducing debt "will be important for maintaining the stable outlook" of the note of the country said Moody's. The Minister of Economy and Finance Baroin said Tuesday that Paris would "do everything possible" to keep its deficit reduction targets.For 2011, the deficit target of 5.7% seems achievable. He enrolled in the draft budget law in 2012 (4.6% of GDP), that MPs prepare to vote today, the state seems inaccessible, because built on a growth assumption of 1.75 %. However, most forecasters expect at best a GDP growth of 0.9% next year. That means ten billion euros in additional savings to identify. Last night, Prime Minister Francois Fillon acknowledged that it will take "new measures" austerity if growth is not at the rendezvous. At the risk of bringing France into the spiral-rigor recession in Greece and Portugal for two years.

France and Belgium flew Tuesday to rescue Dexia, ensuring that both countries would take all necessary measures to ensure its funding while its share price collapsed and the specter of a rollback.

Following a board meeting of an emergency, the Franco-Belgian bank said in the night to consider measures to enable it to strengthen its financial structure, without, however, categorically rule out the scenario of a split, what 'She was still there just a few days.

Dexia shares had lost up to 38% in the morning Tuesday, reaching its lowest historical levels, then some limit its losses by early afternoon.

Around 2:00 p.m., Dexia lost 13.5% to 1.12 euro, while the European index of banks, although affected by the new fears of Greek sovereign debt, limiting its losses to 4.6%.The stock has lost 54% since the beginning of the year, bringing its market capitalization of 2.2 billion euros.

The scenario of a dismantling of Dexia as structural solution to the financial difficulties of the Franco-Belgian bank has not been formally denied by the Belgian or French.

A French government source said, however, "reject" this term, preferring to speak of a major asset disposal.

The group is mainly composed of a retail bank in Belgium, a private bank in Luxembourg, a division of funding for local authorities in France and banking Denizbank in Turkey.

Meeting in Luxembourg for a council of the European Union finance ministers Belgian and French said the two countries brought their guarantee to finance Dexia without specifying the terms of the transaction.

GUARANTEED FINANCING

"We guarantee funding.For the procedures, there are instances, let the time to organize these deliberative bodies (…) All we are saying is that states will meet present as in 2008, "said Baroin to press.

The question of a recapitalization by the States, would constitute a de facto quasi-nationalization has not been formally excluded.

"Everything will depend on the scheme presented by the management of Dexia," said his side the Belgian Minister of Finance.

Speculation about the future of Dexia also include the creation of a "bad bank", a bad bank that would separate confined bond portfolios at risk for the bank.

The creation of a new French bank – which would lean part of the portfolio of loans to local Dexia to those of the Deposit and the Post Bank – also seems likely.

The possibility of a sale to another Dexia European banking group, on the model of Fortis sold to BNP Paribas, has not favored by analysts, investors, stressing that Dexia is not salable as such.

The announcement Sunday that Greece would not take the objectives of fiscal consolidation has aroused the distrust of investors and markets, accelerating the pressure on the most vulnerable groups such as Dexia.

American values ​​have appreciated Friday for the fifth consecutive day, on hopes that Europe finally managed to resolve its debt crisis.

Investors, however, warned that a strong back down was to be expected if no concrete solution does not materialize.

Present in Poland at the Ecofin meeting, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner urged European leaders to use leverage to multiply the response capacity of the fund "euro area", the EFSF, several sources reported high rank.

However, no agreement has emerged on what to do.

The Dow Jones closed up 0.66% or 75.91 points, to 11.509.09 while the S & P 500 gained 0.57% or 6.90 points at 1216.01.

The Nasdaq was awarded for its 0.58% (15.24 points) to 2622.31.

For the week, the three indices gaining 4.7%, respectively, 5.4% and 6.3%, accounting for the Nasdaq its best week since July 2009.

"Many questions remain unanswered, which means that the situation will remain fluid enough," said Mark Luschin, head of investment at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.

"All we have to win the last five sessions may disappear."

As for values, Research in Motion, maker of the BlackBerry, has plunged 18.99% to 23.93 dollars, a day after announcing a sharp drop in quarterly profit.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB), as expected, Thursday maintained its monetary policy at zero, but significantly lowered its estimates for growth and inflation.

The SNB lowered its growth forecast of gross domestic product (GDP) now expects an increase between 1.5 and 2% in 2011 instead of 2% "about".

It relies now on a 0.4% inflation in 2011 and a deflation of 0.3% for 2012 as it foresaw in June respectively rates of 0.9% and 1%. For 2013, the central bank refers to a price increase of 0.5% versus 1.7% previously.

The SNB justifies its decision by explaining that it expected GDP growth will stop in the second half.It recalls that in Switzerland, the development of the economy "is hampered both by the strength of the franc and the decline in foreign demand."

The SNB repeat it "will prevail over the floor of 1.20 francs per euro, fixed on September 6, with all the required determination." She intends to keep the total deposits on demand well above 200 billion francs.

"Without the stabilizing effects of the floor price, the risk of recession would be significant," she warns.

The central bank believes, however, that even at 1.20 franc per euro, the franc is at a high level."If the economic outlook and the risks of deflation required by the National Bank will take additional steps," she adds.

She noted that the downside risks could occur at price stability if the franc were to cease to weaken.

The SNB has kept its rate fluctuation corridor Libor in Swiss francs at three months from 0 to 0.25%, which was expected by 34 economists polled by Reuters.

In addition, dissemination of minutes at 18:00 GMT of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve, August 9, will tell if the leaders of the central bank were unanimous on the decision to keep interest rates near zero for at least two years.

Values, The News International title fell by 1.76% on opening. Counsel for the media empire of Rupert Murdoch are investigating the journalistic practices of all the British newspapers of the group, reported sources familiar with the matter.

Wall Street is divided sharply lower Wednesday after strong rebound yesterday, showing investors still worried about the state of the economy after the declarations of the Federal Reserve.

A few minutes after the opening, the Dow Jones yielded 2.79% (311.48 points) to 10,929.88 points, the S & P 500 fell by 2.73% (31.97 points) to 1140.56 , while the Nasdaq composite fell by 2.82% (70 points) to 2412.98 points.

Persistent fears about the economy and the deficit portend as the eve of a highly volatile trade.

"At this stage, investors dizzy," says Oliver Pursche, president of Gary Goldberg Financial Services. "We look forward to another highly volatile.

A four-day deadline set by the Treasury to raise the debt ceiling Barack Obama warned Friday that the political wrangling could cause the loss of the triple A of the United States.

The U.S. president again called on political leaders on both sides to compromise, while holding that the plan proposed by the leader of Republicans in the House of Representatives John Boehner would not solve the problem states USA.

The urgency of finding a solution has been highlighted with the release Friday of U.S. GDP figures, which not only showed an increase less than expected in the second quarter (+1.3% annualized in place the figure of 1.8% expected) but also a very strong downward revision of the first quarter (0.4% versus 1.9% previously announced).

"Now, what is clear is that any solution to avoid the fault must be bipartisan," said Barack Obama.

Failing agreement, the world's largest economy will soon Aug. 2 unable to meet its obligations and would end up in default.

Loss of the triple A, the three major rating agencies to give the note of the U.S. sovereign debt, would raise interest rates similar to the consequences of tax increases that would affect all Americans.

The situation is more complicated than the Republican camp is unable to speak with one voice. Some members of the GOP and have refused Thursday night to support the plan proposed by John Boehner.

This device limits the job creation, says the union's No. 2, Laurent Berger.

Lawrence Berger, the national secretary of the CFDT for Employment, on Wednesday asked the government to remove "the tax exemption of overtime", claiming that this "limited job creation." "If the government really wants to support employment without having to generate means, he returns at least on the tax exemption of overtime rather than revel in its success," said union official in an interview with Les Echos.

According to Lawrence Berger, "this measure is certainly against-productive because it limits job creation. And individually, it is not decisive for the extra purchasing power of employees concerned."As is to be announced Wednesday the number of jobseekers registered in June, Laurent Berger said that "in addition to its level, nature of unemployment is alarming." "The slow recovery is the precarious, with an increase in short-term contracts and little long-term job creation," he added.

He urged the government to "adapt its policy" against a "trend, the maintenance of high unemployment and rising job insecurity." The CFDT also calls for a responsible means of enhancing employment center and a change in its governance. "We must give place to the social partners by strengthening the powers of the board," he pleaded. Lawrence Berger said he also had to "mourn the single business, the idea that each agent (of employment center) can handle either support or compensation."

Alcoa, often presented as a barometer of the U.S. economy, reported Monday a sharp rise in earnings in the second quarter, mainly due to higher aluminum prices.

Net income stood at $ 332 million, $ 0.28 per share, against 136 million, $ 0.13 per share, a year earlier.

Profit from continuing operations, excluding special items, was for its $ 0.32 registered.

As for sales, it jumped from 27% to 6.66 billion dollars.

The Reuters gave an EPS to $ 0.32 and a turnover to 6.31 billion.

From April to June, a tonne of aluminum has traded between 2500 and 2600 against $ 1977 dollars on average in the second quarter of 2010.

The title gained 1% to 16.07 dollars after closing. The action ended Monday's session down 2.86% to 15.91 dollars

A study of the Institute Research Lab, the oil would have increased their margins in 20 years, by not passing on enough cuts in crude oil prices at the pump.

The alarm is again drawn. A report by the Institute Research Lab, which has obtained the daily Le Parisien, points to the tendency of oil does not affect the pump lower crude prices.

May 30, a similar report was made by the Fraud Christine Lagarde. The former economy minister was then immediately wanted to force oil companies to pass on lower oil prices on fuel prices. But "the work of the DGCCRF covered only two week period," says Thomas Porcher, who led the new study.A period far too short, then, to realize if there was or not, a real impact of lower crude prices at the pump …

Loss of purchasing power for consumers

But this time, the study of the Institute Research Lab examined a time much longer – in this case 20 years – from 1990 to April 2011. It appears, according to Thomas Porcher, the fit between crude prices and those at the pump "is lower in the case of a decrease in that of a rise in crude prices." Thus, when there was a 1% increase in crude oil prices, prices at the pump would increase during the week of 0.12%. However, in the case of a 1% decrease, they decrease only 0.07%.

These figures therefore tend to prove that the oil benefit of lower oil prices to achieve margins.The report denounces "an asymmetry in the response of fuel prices, resulting in a loss of purchasing power for consumers."