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Francois Hollande took over France in a low growth in Europe depressed, with the main challenges the recovery of public accounts and employment.

The pressure is on the new president, who knows that its room for maneuver is more limited than those of his predecessors.

Having identified the growth as a condition of the reduction of public deficits in Europe, it will negotiate, particularly with Germany, measures to stimulate activity without deteriorating accounts of the States.

In France, he inherits an annual deficit of about € 100 billion, focused on the state and the financial statements. 

He promises to bring the end of 2011 from 5.2% to 3% of GDP end 2013 in accordance with the commitment of France, by raising taxes and curbing the rise in die ; think the effort is balanced between the two.

Priority of the French unemployment rises, it, every month for nearly a year and reached a forgotten since the late twentieth century.

To reverse the trend, adapting the social system and revive the industry, the new president plans to use fiscal and budgetary weapons and engage in important negotiations with employers' organizations and union. 

FAITH IN THE FUTURE

Like his predecessors, he hopes to be helped by a more dynamic growth than await the IMF, OECD, the European Commission and economists. Additional austerity measures could therefore be required.

GDP would grow by 0.5% according to him this year, 1.7% in 2013, 2% in 2014, and 2% to 2.5% from 2015.

Economists at Credit Agricole CIB-felt before the second round it was a forecast "too optimistic".

"Both programs lack a credible comprehensive strategy to boost competitiveness and growth", they added about the finalists.

Francois Hollande opposed to a sudden slowdown in public spending, want to avoid explaining a recessive effect that dry up the revenue of the state and would increase the deficit instead to reduce it. 

Increased spending would be 1.1% per year – against an average of 1.7% from 2007 to 2010 – which would decrease the amount as a percentage of GDP if growth is there.

His relatives said that the rating agencies were watching the growth prospects of the states, not just fiscal ratios.

Degraded by Standard and Poor's earlier this year, the memo from France – ever "triple A" by Moody's and Fitch – is negative outlook for all three agencies, which means other damage are possible.

RECOVERY HISTORY

Francois Hollande promises to balance the public accounts end of 2017, a first since 1974. The effort would be one hundred billion over five years, including about forty by the end of 2013, provided that the annual defense budget.

"Despite the strong commitment of candidates to control deficits, we highlight the historical magnitude of the adjustment would be needed", noted analysts at Barclays.

To lower the debt ratio to GDP, which tends toward 90%, about 80% end of 2017, Francois Hollande provides significant tax increases, where the impact would be in his the less sensitive: the richest households and the largest enterprises.

Thirty billion of new taxes would reduce the deficit, and fifteen more would finance a portion of its 20 billion euros of measures. Some of these measures according to him should support growth and employment, others restore "justice" as the softening of the pension reform.

It is however committed to removing the VAT hike decided for the month of October and that would affect all consumers.

Faced with unemployment at its highest since 1999, Francois Hollande relies on a battery of policy measures – including an increase in recruitment of officials – and on support for small and medium enterprises.

He promises a "generation contract" to integrate young people into the business while retaining older workers, and the creation of 150,000 "jobs of the future", a discount of up to date "youth jobs" of the Jospin government. He announced a refocusing of training on the less educated public and strengthening the capacity of job center.

STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES

The new president will also reduce structural weaknesses that undermine the French economy since the end of the "thirty glorious years".

The foreign trade surplus that has been ten years since 1950, had a deficit of 70 billion euros last year, a record. The market share of France in world trade deteriorates to 3.3% last year against 5.8% in 1995. Exports and the deficit with the EU, representing 61% of total products sold outside France, widened further.

The imbalance of foreign trade is reflected in the current account deficit, which measures the evolution of the country's debt vis-à-vis the outside, so that almost ; s two-thirds of the stock of marketable debt held by French non-residents.

Francois Hollande surprised during the campaign by his discretion on structural reforms intended to reduce these imbalances.

"The discussions on an agenda of structural reforms (labor, goods and services) are, surprisingly, absent from the campaign of Francois Hollande," analysts at Barclays stressed. "That said, we see reason to believe in the ability of Francois Hollande to reform: the Socialist Party has traditionally good relations with social partners and Francois Hollande is known for build consensus. "

For Gilles Moec, Deutsche Bank, "its goal of zero deficit in 2017 is underpinned by ambitious growth forecasts which we believe are not credible without reforms rapid structural on which the Socialists are now completely silent. "

The CEO of Qatar Airways has expressed interest in studying the case of aircraft developed by countries such as China, given frequent delays at Airbus and Boeing.

Akbar Al Baker, who regularly criticizes two giants of the aerospace industry not to take their time, said Monday that delays of up to three years had thwarted growth plans of carriers in the Gulf region, which now constitute much of the Western demand for appliances.

Qatar Airways has ordered the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, the Airbus A380 superjumbo and the A350, three devices that did not meet delivery dates announced. 

The airline has also ordered smaller devices to 150 seats, as the A320neo. She ordered 50 during Dubai Airshow in November.

Asked if he would consider buying Chinese equipment, Akbar Al Baker said: "Why not? If it is safe, effective, advanced and that it meets the requirements."

The Chinese Comac develops a 150-seat aircraft.

Industry leaders argue, however, it will take at least ten years before China can compete with Boeing and Airbus on larger aircraft.

EDF Energies Nouvelles and Alstom are the big winners of the first tender for wind turbines off the French coast of the Channel, the second one being planned in the second half to achieve the target set for 2020.

This tender, intended to kick-start the offshore wind sector, should help France catch up it has accumulated in other European countries in terms renewable energy and reduce its dependence on the nuclear-vis.

The Industry Minister, Eric Besson, announced Friday the award of contracts representing a total capacity of 2,000 megawatts, the equivalent of two small nuclear reactors. 

These capabilities are less than a third than originally expected, the field Tréport (Seine-Maritime, Somme) has not been allocated for lack of sufficient competition.

The consortium formed by Alstom and EDF with Danish Dong Energy and won three of the five fields involved: Saint-Nazaire (Loire-Atlantique), Fécamp (Seine-Maritime) and Courseulles-sur-Mer (Calvados), or a volume of about 240 wind turbines.

Spain's Iberdrola and the French group Areva will see their side of the field jointly awarded the Saint-Brieuc (Côtes d'Armor), which should bring 100 turbines.

GDF Suez, which had also formed a consortium with Areva, gets nothing at this stage but will compete in the second tender. 

"This decision will enable France to continue the development of renewable energy that are, next to nuclear power one of the two pillars of our policy e ; nergétique, "said Eric Besson at a press conference.

"A NEW INDUSTRIAL SECTOR"

He confirmed the target of 6,000 megawatts of capacity by 2020, as set by the Grenelle Environment for offshore wind and marine energy. The latter also include turbines, turbines use the energy of ocean currents, for which a separate tender is planned within two years.

The second tender will involve particular area Tréport and that of Noirmoutier, he said.

The selection of candidates announced Friday an investment of seven billion euros and the creation of 10,000 direct manufacturing jobs, argued Eric Besson.

"The foundations of a new industry and export are asked," welcomed his side in a statement the consortium led by EDF Energies Nouvelles, a subsidiary of EDF.

While Alstom plans to invest 100 million euros and generate up to 7.500 jobs with its partners, the challenge will be for the group to impose its new generation of turbine Haliade, inaugurated on March 19 to book (Loire-Atlantique).

Alstom, which confirmed Friday the establishment of four plants in Cherbourg and Saint-Nazaire for its wind Haliade says that orders, amounting to over two billion euros, will occur by field field from 2014.

Areva has now put forward his experience and that could create 4,000 jobs in France, including 1,000 in its single perimeter, while GDF Suez has raised up 'to 6,000 direct and indirect jobs.

March 11, 2011, a violent earthquake struck Japan, followed by a giant tsunami that resulted in the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Quantitative assessment, inventory of nuclear stock of the Japanese economy: five links to learn more about this sad anniversary. Tepco employees check the levels of radioactivity of the nuclear accident in Fukushima, in the province of Daiichi (northeastern Japan)

There are just over a year, March 11, 2011, northeastern Japan was devastated by an earthquake measuring nine coupled with a tsunami of historic proportions. The disaster has claimed thousands of victims, caused enormous damage and caused the nuclear accident at Fukushima.

In pictures, the great figures of the earthquake

Minami-Soma, city of Fukushima prefecture, was devastated by the disaster. This small coastal town near the nuclear power plant has lost thousands of its inhabitants. The survivors are now wondering about their future. Many have already fled. Remain ghosts and memories.

Report: After Fukushima, the city of Minami-Soma broken

That day, March 11, 2011, Naoto Kan, the then Prime Minister of Japan, was in the upper house of the Diet, where he answered questions from the opposition. Exclusive to L'Express, he tells how he lived and managed the disaster crisis.

Interview: "Fukushima has a human cause"

The disaster cost the Japanese economy has plunged into recession. Japan's GDP fell 0.7% in 2011. The country now seems out of crisis. Growth expected to reach 2% this year. But this rebound is largely artificial.

Analysis: What is the Japanese economy?

The Fukushima nuclear disaster has brought discredit to the entire industry. Fear of nuclear is back in the public opinion of developed countries, pushing many governments – including Germany – have announced their willingness to exit this mode of energy production. Yet it is clear that today's nuclear industry is doing well. Besides the contrasting reactions in the West, emerging countries are determined to take advantage of the strengths of the atom.

Understanding: Why nuclear winter has not taken place

In Japan, only three of 54 reactors still operating aujoud'hui. That of Fukushima is stopped. The area is off limits, because the radioactivity level is high. Tepco, the operator says the situation is under control. Roland Desbordes, Commission President for Research and Independent Information on Radioactivity (Criirad), in doubt.

Interview: "The explosion in central Fukushima is still possible"

In France, where 80% of electricity is nuclear, Fukushima has shaken public opinion. The debate on nuclear phase-out has made a great comeback. A year later, ecology seems the most overlooked of the presidential campaign. Environmentalists, advocates of a permanent exit from nuclear, are credited with less than 5% of the vote. Their socialist allies negotiated a minimum agreement. A group called "Generation Fukushima", who fight against nuclear power, attempts to remedy this lack.

Read on Express Yourself: "Your nuclear legacy, we do not want it!"

The debt-swap plan (ISP) must be completed Thursday night. Lack of agreement with private creditors, Greece risks bankruptcy. The agency Standard

Greece is entering a critical period. Its private creditors have until 2000 GMT Thursday to say whether or not they participate in the swap of debt (the famous PSI).

Why the looping of the PSI is it important?

The success of this operation is vital: through it, the slate of Greece (EUR 350 billion today) should be lowered by more than 100 billion euros. Specifically, private creditors must agree to waive 53.5% of the face value of Greek bonds they hold. They must also agree on a new Greek bonds, a longer maturity and bearing a lower interest rate. The PSI is also the condition for the EU and the IMF in the wake unlock a second credit line of € 130 billion to Greece, private market access. European aid plan that provides more than 60 billion euros in aid to banks, which at least 30 institutions only Greek. This massive support to banks, which aims to try to avoid the repetition of the 1929 crisis, however, is hotly disputed, both in the protests in Greece, as the former Argentine Finance Minister Roberto Lavagna, the main architect of his country's recovery after its bankruptcy a decade ago. All denounce the drastic sacrifices imposed on the Greek population in exchange for aid purely financial.

An agreement will he find?

Not sure, and that is what worries the markets. The Greek government is between 75 and 90% acceptance rate for private creditors. But the financial sacrifice is asked of them is important. Their participation in the exchange is likely to be lower than expected. Below 75%, the government has already announced that the project would be abandoned. Greece would be at risk of a default on March 20, when the country must repay a maturity of 14.4 billion euros. The Eurosceptics, like the British think tank Openeurope, opposed the entire plan of aid to Greece, for their part provide a default inevitable future of the country on the rest of its debt will weigh on the shoulders of taxpayers Europe. In the immediate future, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), which led the negotiations with banks on the side of the Greek government, drew a scenario Apocalypse if the PSI was not adopted at least 75%, in a confidential report was leaked to the press. The IIF has amounted to over EUR 1,000 billion cost for the international economy of uncontrolled bankruptcy of Greece in case of failure of the PSI. The report also refers to the ECB in difficulty, and the rapid contagion in Portugal, Italy, Spain.

Is there already private creditors in favor of PSI?

Yes. The heavyweights of European finance announced on Monday night agreed to participate in the deal: three German Allianz, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, the French Axa, BNP Paribas, CNP Assurances, the Dutch ING Bank, Italy's Intesa San Paolo The three Greek banks Alpha Bank, EFG Eurobank and National Bank of Greece (NBG) and the U.S. fund Greylock Capital Management. According to Bloomberg, the private creditors in favor of PSI represented 20% of total Greek debt by mid-day. We must now reach 50% in the shortest possible time. Indeed, from this threshold, special provisions allow the imposition, under certain conditions – restructuring to all creditors. In this case, the turnout would be at least 86% calculate the BNP Paribas' experts. Meanwhile Thursday, the Greek government shows its serenity betting on involvement "and substantial enough" to PSI, and repeating the recalcitrant creditors that there will be no better offer.

The rating agency Standard and Poor's downgraded Monday the credit rating of Greece to "SD", a level corresponding to "selective default. Anti-austerity protesters in Parliament in Athens on 7 February 2012.

. The rating agency Standard and Poor's downgraded Monday the credit rating of Greece to "SD", a level corresponding to "selective default", to reflect the restructuring of government debt launched Friday. S & P said in a statement it plans to raise the rating of the country to CCC rating assigned to issuers of poor quality with a real risk of default, when this operation has been fully carried out, probably around mid- in March.

The decision of the U.S. Agency was expected since it had indicated in the past it would raise the note by Greece SD begin as soon as the implementation of the Agreement on Cessation of Athens claims made by private financial institutions. However, "if a sufficient number of bondholders (public) Greek did not accept the exchange offer," wrote S & P said in a statement, "we believe that Greece would present an imminent risk of default characterized payment "to the extent that the release of the rest of the assistance promised to the country by the euro area and the International Monetary Fund is subject to the successful debt restructuring of Athens.

A default is characterized reflected in the note "D" in the notation of S & P. "I take note of the decision" S & P, said the leader of Finance Ministers of the euro zone Jean-Claude Juncker, in a statement released in Luxembourg, adding that he expected a "strong participation "of private creditors in the operation launched Friday.

This exchange transaction should allow Greece to obtain a cancellation of debt of 107 billion euros. Greece aims to give private creditors participating in the operation of shares worth 53.5% less than those they currently hold. A quarter of those titles that creditors will receive bonds from the European Stability (EFSF), presumably with a maximum maturity of two years. The rest will consist of new Greek bonds with maturities ranging from 11 to 30 years, a period much greater than those they replace.

The goal is to push the repayment schedule of Greece on the amounts it still accepts honor, for giving him time to recover. If successful, "we should consider that the incident of the partial failure of Greece belongs to the past," wrote S & P, for which the possible increase of the rating to CCC would then account "the economic growth outlook uncertain of the country "and its" public debt remains strong ", even after restructuring.

PSA Peugeot Citroën is the star of the Paris stock exchange today. Its title flies by nearly 10%, boosted by the announcement of cooperation projects and a possible alliance with General Motors. A PSA Peugeot Citroën plant in Coventry, UK.

The title of French carmaker PSA Peugeot Citroen flew Wednesday morning at the Paris Bourse, boosted by the prospect of an alliance with General Motors. At 10:10 (9:10 GMT), the value gained 9.80% to 15.80 euros and largely occupied first place in the CAC 40, which lost 0.29%. Analysts at Natixis bank have in turn raised to "buy", against "neutral" before their recommendation on the title, with a price target to 20 euros.

The French manufacturer, sentencing, said review "projects of cooperation and alliances" about which "discussions are ongoing". The site reported Tuesday LaTribune.fr advanced negotiations for a marriage with General Motors. Labour Minister Xavier Bertrand confirmed Wednesday that French was in talks with the U.S.. Florent Couvreur, analyst at CM-CIC Securities, said that PSA is among the largest European manufacturers "most isolated" and that furthermore it is difficult to generate sufficient margins in its core automotive operations. The analyst also puts forward the fact that the company Opel, GM's European subsidiary, "is in the same situation."

Analysts at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, "the first result of such discussions is the need for both companies to improve their position in Europe where all groups except two (Renault and Volkswagen) have recorded losses in the second half 2011 ". Thus, an alliance with PSA GM "could allow these two groups of strong synergies and economies of scale", such investments and R & D (research and development), for Mr. Slater. This merger would allow PSA to benefit from the GM position in Asia and the U.S. while the U.S. would have the opportunity through the French to build on small models, explains the analyst.

"GM-PSA could be the new Fiat-Chrysler", states Mr. Couvreur, while warning against a number of uncertainties. These include the future participation of the Peugeot family, the reaction of other PSA partners (Ford on diesel engines and Toyota in the "mini cars") and whether the alliance has held a probable reduction in overcapacity Europe. Analysts at the U.S. bank, however, wonder if this alliance fear materialize and warn that PSA longer needs this merger as GM, "given its dependence on Europe and its inability to cut costs fast enough ".

German exports in December accused their most marked decline in almost three years, the first sign that the euro area economy has suffered heavily in the last quarter of re percussion of the debt crisis.

But the figures of the Federal Bureau of Statistics also show that exports have reached record levels in all of 2011, and, according to the latest predictors, the German economy is back on track after a brief contraction.

"Earlier this year, the outlook for the German economy is better, while the global economy gathers momentum and the uncertainty surrounding the debt crisis eases ", Ulrike Rondorf analysis, economist at Commerzbank. 

The euro stood Wednesday peaks several weeks against the dollar and the yen, investors hoping to make Greece the austerity measures demanded in return for a second bailout.

On a seasonally adjusted, German exports fell 4.3% in December, their most marked decline since January 2009. Economists polled by Reuters on average expected a decline of only 1.0%.

The trade surplus has settled to 13.9 billion euros after 14.9 billion (revised figure) in the previous month and 14.0 billion expected.

THINNING FOR

The German economy, export-oriented, quickly recovered from the 2008-2009 financial crisis but the budgetary problems of the euro area and the global economic downturn have clouded his growth prospects.

The first official estimate reported a contraction of 0.25% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter and German economic indicators in December were more still bad as feared. 

Industrial production in December suffered its biggest decline since early 2009, heavily disappointing expectations.

Economists were betting on domestic demand to support the economy and anticipated imports up 0.6% in December, but they fell 3.9%.

The trade surplus of Germany, however, reached 158.1 billion euros in 2011, after 154.9 billion in 2010.

This contrasts sharply with the trade deficit of France, which last year reached a record 69.6 billion euros.

The economic forecast surveys also suggest that the slump in the German economy will be short lived. 

The business climate has improved in January for the third consecutive month, while consumer confidence in the horizon of February rose against all odds at its highest level in ten months.

Over the full year 2011, German exports exceed 1,000 billion euros. And the trend is rising: industrial goods orders rose 1.7% in December, despite the erosion of demand from the euro area on the bottom of the debt crisis.

"With the 2008 financial crisis, the importance of different export markets of Germany has changed somewhat, declining slightly in Europe and the rest of gaining importance worldwide, "said Anton Börner, director of industrial consolidation BGA.

Over the past twelve months, the transactions made by Greeks reached some 250 million pounds. They seek to place their assets ç outside the country and the euro area. The London property market is relatively stable and offers a return on investment

They lag far behind Gulf investors or Russia, but the Greeks buy more properties in London, considering the British capital as a sanctuary for their fortunes away from the turmoil of the crisis that undermines their pays.Alors the Athens can abandon the single currency has been openly discussed by European leaders, some Greek citizens believe evidence that leaving their assets to their homes is far too risky, and struggle to get them out of the euro area.

London, where the real estate market is relatively stable and offers a return on investment, seems like a good alternative, according to industry experts. "The Greeks have long been on the market in central London, but after eighteen months, the number is increasing," says Liam Bailey of Knight Frank real estate agency specializing in luxury homes.

The Greeks represent 1.5% of the market

This interest was further increased in recent weeks with the deepening of the Greek crisis, confirms Richard Barber, who works at the WA Ellis agency, which specializes in upscale neighborhoods of Chelsea and Knightsbridge. "They prefer to put their money into real estate rather than first class in Greek bonds. The property market in London has a reputation as a sanctuary." The phenomenon is still embryonic.

European leaders are determined to act in a coordinated response to the crisis in the euro area, said Wednesday the executive director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde.

On the eve of the G20 summit in Cannes, the former French Finance Minister acknowledged that could occur in spurts, a thinly veiled reference to the surprise announcement of a referendum in Greece, but it ensured that the determination of the Europeans was decisive.

When working at B20, which brings together representatives of world's largest companies, in Cannes, she explained that global growth was slowing, but she persisted.

She added that the downside risks weighing on growth, suggesting a negative interaction of financial and economic, as well as the risk of social unrest.

About the crisis in the eurozone, "I've never seen so much determination and will to act in a coordinated manner," said Christine Lagarde.

"You will see (reactions such as) 'but what does it speak? What have we seen two days ago?' Of course, things are not smooth, sometimes in fits and starts major, "she added.

"But what matters is what was decided on October 27 in the morning (…) and what will count tomorrow, in the days, weeks and months, it is the resilience and determination of the partners the euro, European partners, "added Christine Lagarde.