The new head of state, who voted in favor of a pact to support growth of the Agreement on budgetary discipline approved by 25 of the 27 countries of the European Union, wants to mobilize savings of the French to strengthen financial leeway of the state for housing and corporate finance. 

His presidential program provided including a doubling of the ceiling of Booklet A and Booklet Sustainable Development (LDD), currently limited to 15,300 euros respectively and 6,000 euros. They are currently paid at a rate of 2.25%.

Francois Hollande hopes to encourage the creation of new social housing and transform the LDD in "savings book industry" dedicated to SME financing and business innovation.

If investors can not appreciate these reforms, credit institutions such as BNP Paribas and Societe Generale may see whole areas of savings leave their record to head the Caisse des Depots (CDC) that centralizes regulated savings in France.

According to Pascal Decque, an analyst at Cheuvreux, some 83 billion euros of savings could then migrate to the CDC. 

Such a transfer would be another blow to banks

French who have already lost 90 billion euros of deposits last year due to concerns of investors about banks' exposure to Greece and the financial crisis.

"You have liquidity pressures in all sectors for French banks," said Andrew Lim, an analyst at Espirito Santo. The program of Francois Hollande "will put pressure on the deposit market."

Societe Generale has declined to comment on the subject while at BNP Paribas messages left unanswered.

NON-DISCLOSURE OF BANKERS

This regulated savings, which comes mainly from the Booklet A, is collected by the banking networks and centralized at the CDC in exchange for a commission paid to banks. The funds raised finance housing projects, infrastructure and other public projects.

According to statistics from the CDC, the outstanding book A and the LDD reached 295.1 billion euros at end-March.

Leaders of French banks, already reluctant to the idea of ​​a banking reform that would isolate the activities according to their usefulness or not the economy, principal concern is that beyond the housing market deposits and the financing of major projects is entrusted to a public bank.

"Liquidity is our raw material, (Reform Booklet A, Ed) does not help us," said May 10 Perol President BPCE (People's Bank, Savings Bank), parent company of Natixis, radio BFM Business. "It's weird to send money to the Deposit which has no bank branch when there are French banks have 40,000 branches."

"French banks (…) have employees willing to work and to make loans to businesses that need," he added.

The CDC is well mobilized, through its infrastructure fund and Axa Private Equity and Vinci, to fund future high-speed line (HSL) between Tours and Bordeaux, an investment of more than seven billion euros.

"Is it necessary to finance SMEs by the CDC and insurers?" Plague a Parisian banker who requested anonymity. "With Francois Hollande, there is the return to France with the idea that the state does better. This is an old French fantasy. "

Reform of regulated savings" will destabilize the banks, "he says

. While many observers believe that with the new Basel III prudential banks can no longer finance long-term projects, some believe, however, that the state will not only fulfill these investments

. "The challenges of financing long-term investments can not be met if we depend only of a public actor, "says Gerard de la Martiniere, former president of the Federation of French society ; s insurance (FFSA)

.

A spokesman for JPMorgan Chase declined to comment on these two complaints that were filed in federal court in Manhattan.

The newspaper announced on its front page "A" that the British group does want to keep in the Hexagon as their operations to large corporations.

It indicates that the Postal Bank and the HSBC Group "could bid".

No one was contacted Monday evening with the French bank for comment.

China announced Friday a slowdown in inflation but also the smallest increase in industrial production in almost three years, two factors that should prompt the government to further relax its monetary policy to stimulate growth.

Industrial production grew only by 9.3% in April against 11.6% in the first quarter. This is the lowest figure since May 2009 when the increase was 8.9%. "The Chinese economy is even weaker than expected, with growth of industrial production in the single digits for the first time since the global financial crisis," said Alistair Thornton, economist at IHS Global Insight, based in Beijing.

Any effect of the second world economy is also reflected in a slower increase in retail sales, gauge consumer spending, which rose in April by 14.1% year on year, against 15.2% in March and 14.8% for the entire first quarter. "The figures of consumption and production (industrial) showering even more hopes for a resumption of rapid growth in China," said Mark Williams, an analyst at Capital Economics.

Finally, investments in fixed capital, contributing to over half of the formation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of China also see their rise on a year to slow to 20.2% for the first four months of the year, whereas it was 20.9% for the first quarter. These weaknesses of the economy should prompt the government to ease its monetary policy, especially since the rise in consumer prices slowed to 3.4% yoy in April, against 3.6% in March.  

The level of inflation remains well below the 4% threshold set in March by the government, which closely monitors the evolution of prices to maintain social stability in a politically sensitive period, with the coming to power a new generation of leaders scheduled for the fall. On a year, food prices remain the main contributor to the rise, with 7% growth, which disproportionately hits the poorest households because they spend a larger portion of their income on food. But about a month, food prices fell 0.9% in April.

"The priority for the Chinese economy is not inflation but rather how to maintain economic growth," he told AFP Liao Qun, an economist at China Citic Bank International in Hong Kong. The producer price, which provides an early indication of future inflation, for their part, declined year on year by 0.7% in April. They had already declined in March but only 0.3%. "The extremely low index of producer prices will be one of the main factors that will force the government to further easing" monetary policy, according to Mr. Thornton.

Monetary easing seems all the more necessary that the Chinese economy is less and less driven by export growth, which suffer from the debt crisis in Europe, and struggling to find a relay in domestic demand. In April, growth in exports over the year fell to 4.9% and imports were virtually flat with only 0.3% increase, according to figures released by Customs on Thursday. These figures are significantly below the target of foreign trade growth of about 10% by government decree in 2012.

This smaller increase in foreign trade of China has contributed to the slowdown in growth, from 9.7% in first quarter 2011 to 8.1% in the first quarter of this year. To support the activity, the central bank will soon lower the reserve requirements for banks, allowing them to lend more, analysts said. Two drops of these reserves, very high in China, have already taken place in December and February.

The U.S. automaker, which announced in February an alliance with PSA Peugeot Citroen, has appointed an advisory bank and committed a "strategic review" concerning both the production engineer neering and development of this plant, says in a statement.

He was willing to explore the internal and external solutions to find "viable alternatives and potential solutions to secure the future of the site".

General Motors intends to favor buyers who will continue the work site, which employs a thousand people. 

This file may be one of the first industrial sensitive topics for the new president Francois Hollande, in a context of overcapacity in the hunt for European automotive sector.

Last year, the plant produced 280,000 automatic transmissions with six speeds, mainly for GM brands and BMW, mostly for vehicles assembled outside Europe.

This is the second time that General Motors is trying to lease the site. During the 2008 financial crisis, the company charged with liquidating the assets of the American manufacturer had not found a buyer. In 2011, a year after his brief for the procedure of bankruptcy, GM had bought the plant for a symbolic euro.

At the time, employees had accepted a two-year wage freeze in exchange for guarantees on jobs.

"There are several commitments in place to continue the manufacture of transmissions for years," assured Jim Cain, spokesman for GM.

The net result of the first three months of the yearâ increased 12% to 112 million euros, while analysts polled by Reuters had expected on average 100 million.

"We started in 2012. The turnover of the first quarter of 2012 is almost the same level as in the first quarter of 2011, a solid performance given the headwinds that blow in Europe, "says Patrick de Maeseneire, Director General ral of the Swiss group, said in a statement

. "Our sales in North America continued to hold up well." Revenues

the period rose 2% to 5.035 billion euros, against a consensus of 4.991 billion ..

……. Randstand, Dutch rival Adecco, spoke about the uncertain developments in Europe while the U.S. pre Manpower said ; see a double digit decline in southern Europe in the second quarter

.

The pressure is on the new president, who knows that its room for maneuver is more limited than those of his predecessors.

Having identified the growth as a condition of the reduction of public deficits in Europe, it will negotiate, particularly with Germany, measures to stimulate activity without deteriorating accounts of the States.

In France, he inherits an annual deficit of about € 100 billion, focused on the state and the financial statements. 

He promises to bring the end of 2011 from 5.2% to 3% of GDP end 2013 in accordance with the commitment of France, by raising taxes and curbing the rise in die ; think the effort is balanced between the two.

Priority of the French unemployment rises, it, every month for nearly a year and reached a forgotten since the late twentieth century.

To reverse the trend, adapting the social system and revive the industry, the new president plans to use fiscal and budgetary weapons and engage in important negotiations with employers' organizations and union. 

FAITH IN THE FUTURE

Like his predecessors, he hopes to be helped by a more dynamic growth than await the IMF, OECD, the European Commission and economists. Additional austerity measures could therefore be required.

GDP would grow by 0.5% according to him this year, 1.7% in 2013, 2% in 2014, and 2% to 2.5% from 2015.

Economists at Credit Agricole CIB-felt before the second round it was a forecast "too optimistic".

"Both programs lack a credible comprehensive strategy to boost competitiveness and growth", they added about the finalists.

Francois Hollande opposed to a sudden slowdown in public spending, want to avoid explaining a recessive effect that dry up the revenue of the state and would increase the deficit instead to reduce it. 

Increased spending would be 1.1% per year – against an average of 1.7% from 2007 to 2010 – which would decrease the amount as a percentage of GDP if growth is there.

His relatives said that the rating agencies were watching the growth prospects of the states, not just fiscal ratios.

Degraded by Standard and Poor's earlier this year, the memo from France – ever "triple A" by Moody's and Fitch – is negative outlook for all three agencies, which means other damage are possible.

RECOVERY HISTORY

Francois Hollande promises to balance the public accounts end of 2017, a first since 1974. The effort would be one hundred billion over five years, including about forty by the end of 2013, provided that the annual defense budget.

"Despite the strong commitment of candidates to control deficits, we highlight the historical magnitude of the adjustment would be needed", noted analysts at Barclays.

To lower the debt ratio to GDP, which tends toward 90%, about 80% end of 2017, Francois Hollande provides significant tax increases, where the impact would be in his the less sensitive: the richest households and the largest enterprises.

Thirty billion of new taxes would reduce the deficit, and fifteen more would finance a portion of its 20 billion euros of measures. Some of these measures according to him should support growth and employment, others restore "justice" as the softening of the pension reform.

It is however committed to removing the VAT hike decided for the month of October and that would affect all consumers.

Faced with unemployment at its highest since 1999, Francois Hollande relies on a battery of policy measures – including an increase in recruitment of officials – and on support for small and medium enterprises.

He promises a "generation contract" to integrate young people into the business while retaining older workers, and the creation of 150,000 "jobs of the future", a discount of up to date "youth jobs" of the Jospin government. He announced a refocusing of training on the less educated public and strengthening the capacity of job center.

STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES

The new president will also reduce structural weaknesses that undermine the French economy since the end of the "thirty glorious years".

The foreign trade surplus that has been ten years since 1950, had a deficit of 70 billion euros last year, a record. The market share of France in world trade deteriorates to 3.3% last year against 5.8% in 1995. Exports and the deficit with the EU, representing 61% of total products sold outside France, widened further.

The imbalance of foreign trade is reflected in the current account deficit, which measures the evolution of the country's debt vis-à-vis the outside, so that almost ; s two-thirds of the stock of marketable debt held by French non-residents.

Francois Hollande surprised during the campaign by his discretion on structural reforms intended to reduce these imbalances.

"The discussions on an agenda of structural reforms (labor, goods and services) are, surprisingly, absent from the campaign of Francois Hollande," analysts at Barclays stressed. "That said, we see reason to believe in the ability of Francois Hollande to reform: the Socialist Party has traditionally good relations with social partners and Francois Hollande is known for build consensus. "

For Gilles Moec, Deutsche Bank, "its goal of zero deficit in 2017 is underpinned by ambitious growth forecasts which we believe are not credible without reforms rapid structural on which the Socialists are now completely silent. "

The controversy over the unemployment figures in the U.S. is not going to stop. The unemployment rate has indeed declined despite a decline in recruitment. According lenquête conducted by the Ministry with companies, the U.S. economy created 115,000 more jobs than it destroyed in April. Or 25.4% less than in March, and a figure lower than the estimate of analysts (162,000). A trend that confirms the investigation of the slowdown in hiring in the private sector alone.

Curiously, this poor performance has not prevented the official unemployment rate to fall by 0.1 points compared with April, amounting to 8.1%, its lowest level since January 2009, according to the Ministry of working. This decline is a surprise since the median estimate of analysts gave unemployment stable at 8.2%. Government figures show that the decline in unemployment has resulted primarily from lower rather marked in the labor force. According to investigations conducted by the ministry of households, the number employed appears to have declined for the second consecutive month, just slightly slower than that of people unemployed.

Operating loss for the first quarter amounted to 381 million euros against a negative balance of 169 million a year earlier. The consensus gave a loss of 289 million euros.

The German airline, which must publish all of its accounts Thursday, has also reported a turnover up 5.6% to 6.6 billion euros.

Lufthansa has also reported a net loss of EUR 397 million against a loss of 507 million a year earlier.

It anticipates for 2012 an operating profit of around 500 million euros.

At midday, the action of the British bank and advanced 2.32% to 31.73 pence while the FTSE 100 London Stock Exchange, the only open in Europe in May 1 , gained 0.24%.

The UK bank has yet announced that it had a fresh supply of 375 million pounds (459 million) in its accounts for the first quarter to cover the reimbursement of customers who potentially overpaid for certain insurance policies. 

Lloyds 40% owned by the State since the 2008 financial crisis, said the increase in provisions in the case of insurance policies had been decided e given the increasing volume of complaints received, echoing comments made by Barclays last week about it.

Last year, Lloyds had already funded £ 3.2 billion for the same reasons.

The group also said that the sale of 632 programmed agencies made little progress, while being pessimistic about the UK economy, fallout recession in the first quarter.

"We think the economy will stagnate this year but it will be a long and difficult recovery. We anticipate a resumption of growth in 2013 and a peak in unemployment of almost 9% early next year, "said Antonio Horta-Osorio, Director General ; ral

. Lloyds bank has cleared the first three months of a taxable income Statutory 288 million pounds over the period, against 316 million the previous quarter

. The largest British settlement in terms of customers reported a level of bad debts to 1.7 billion pounds

.