Top Economics News

Equity markets have appeared hesitant and versatile throughout the session. The European equity markets ended in a disorganized, while at the same time, Wall Street also hesitated between increases and decreases.

Investors have welcomed the drop in bond yields Italian and Spanish through purchases of securities by the European Central Bank in the secondary market.

Traders also mention the idea that the ECB would lend the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to assist countries in the euro area.

But operators remain skeptical, however.

In most cases, fast cash loans are credited to the borrower's account within 24 hours. Sometimes the time taken may be even less, depending on the amount of loan as well as the company which processes your application.

European leaders are determined to act in a coordinated response to the crisis in the euro area, said Wednesday the executive director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde.

On the eve of the G20 summit in Cannes, the former French Finance Minister acknowledged that could occur in spurts, a thinly veiled reference to the surprise announcement of a referendum in Greece, but it ensured that the determination of the Europeans was decisive.

When working at B20, which brings together representatives of world's largest companies, in Cannes, she explained that global growth was slowing, but she persisted.

She added that the downside risks weighing on growth, suggesting a negative interaction of financial and economic, as well as the risk of social unrest.

About the crisis in the eurozone, "I've never seen so much determination and will to act in a coordinated manner," said Christine Lagarde.

"You will see (reactions such as) 'but what does it speak? What have we seen two days ago?' Of course, things are not smooth, sometimes in fits and starts major, "she added.

"But what matters is what was decided on October 27 in the morning (…) and what will count tomorrow, in the days, weeks and months, it is the resilience and determination of the partners the euro, European partners, "added Christine Lagarde.

Core values ​​to take on Wall Street Thursday.

* Chevron announced Thursday a 3.8% increase in its quarterly dividend, which will reach 81 cents per share.

* RAYTHEON published adjusted earnings of $ 1.39 per share for the third quarter and a turnover of 6.13 billion, against a consensus Thomson Reuters I / B / E / S of 6.38 billion of dollars.

* Procter & Gamble announced Thursday an increase in sales in the first quarter of fiscal year and an earnings per share in line with analysts' expectations.

With $ 21.9 billion, the revenue exceeds the consensus Thomson Reuters I / B / E / S, which included 21.53 billion dollars.

Earnings per share was announced at $ 1.03, as expected.Turnover was up 14% to $ 1.68 billion (1.66 billion expected, on average).

* BMC SOFTWARE, which develops business software, announced an adjusted earnings per share of 87 cents against 81 cents expected for the second quarter of fiscal year.

Revenues also exceeded expectations, with 556.3 million against $ 540.4 million expected.

* AETNA – The third group American Health Insurance has reported a profit higher than expected for the third quarter due to a small number of claims.

Earnings excluding items rose to $ 1.40 per share.Analysts on average expected $ 1.15.

Net income stood at 490.4 million dollars against 497.6 million a year earlier. The turnover, however, fell 0.7% to 8.48 billion dollars.

* LAZARD – The investment bank saw its net profit fall by 2% in the third quarter versus the same period in 2010 due to lower revenue from business advisory and asset management.

Net income was $ 62.7 million, or 49 cents a share, against $ 64 million (51 cents) a year earlier.

Greece wants a solution to their debt problems that would apply to all of its debt maturing until 2035, said Monday a government source.

"We think of all the Greek debt, expiring until 2035, not 2020 as planned in the previous plan," the source said, adding that "nothing can be done without the European Central Bank ".

Leaders of the 17 euro zone members must agree by the EU summit Wednesday on how the second aid package granted to Greece, including a marked discount on Greek bonds held by the private sector , which represent the 200 billion euros.

"We oppose any unilateral action that could be interpreted as a reconstruction of the debt," the source said.

Whatever emerges from the top of Wednesday, Greek banks are not nationalized, also said the source.

According to the information that leaked a report on the debt of Greece by international inspectors, it seems that the second aid package of € 109 billion agreed in July is no longer sufficient unless private investors n 'accept a discount of 60% on their Greek bonds.

Without it, it would take more than 250 billion euros for Greece is solvent, say economists.

The German Government has almost halved its growth forecast for next year, reduced to 1% against 1.8% auparavan.

After several economic research institutes, the German government has significantly revised down its growth forecast for next year, noting the slowdown in the economy under the weight of the financial crisis in Europe. Berlin now expects growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 1% in 2012, nearly half its previous estimate of 1.8%, said Wednesday sources close to the government. This forecast should be formalized Thursday by the Ministry of Economy.

The reduction comes as no surprise. Signs of a slowdown in the dynamics have increased recently. The latest business survey, the ZEW, which measures the expectations of analysts and institutional investors, reached Tuesday its lowest level since December 2008.The Ministry of Economy considered himself last week that the risks had "significantly increased" for the first European economy, strong exports. Germany suffers from weaker growth in its European partners, which absorb 60% of its exports.

The main economic research institutes predicted the country in their autumn report, which is the basis for forecasts of Berlin, a decline in GDP in the fourth quarter 2011, followed by stabilization at a low level. The export will not contribute to growth next year, they warned.

Strong last year after the terrible recession of 2009, German growth has largely continued this year and should reach 2.9%, putting Germany in the forefront of Europe.

German manufacturers of cars, machine tools and chemicals filled their order books since last year, and "the companies still much to do to fulfill their orders," Analysis Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING, "this time, they are much better prepared to face a crisis of Lehman type ". The recession following the collapse of U.S. investment bank in 2008 had occurred in a phase of over-capacity of German industry, breaking net momentum.

In the area of ​​machine tools, high of about one million employees and a major exporter, the production growth should slow markedly course next year, warned Tuesday the federation VDMA, but at 4%, remain fully is honorable.

The sequence of events for the German economy, that is "an anchor of stability and growth in Europe" in the words of its Minister of Economy, will very much depend on the outcome of the debt crisis.

EU leaders promise solutions in the coming weeks, and the business press them to do so. But if the remedies proposed were not sufficient to stem the crisis, "the German economy would be penalized more than expected, and would fall into recession," predicted institutes last week. The export collapse, consumer confidence, yet relatively untouched because of a strong labor market, would be reached, and the banking crisis handicap investment, according to worst-case scenario.

Moody's is more secure than the debt of France still deserves the highest rating possible. Degradation could occur in the next six months. The consequences for France and the euro area would be dramatic. The budget minister Valérie Pécresse and the Minister of Economy and Finance Baroin

The sacred triple A of France is under pressure: the rating agency Moody's announced Monday night that it planned to lower the perspective of the note lights. A warning to potentially dramatic consequences for France and for the euro area. Explanations.

Our triple-A is really threatened?

For now, Moody's said it just gave himself three months to determine whether his perspective "stable" was still warranted.The agency is careful to note that this review is part of its annual financial statements for France and it is not yet at this stage, a decision on the rating of the country. However, if the prospect of this note should be revised to "negative", this would imply that Moody's would likely reduce the medium-term (usually for a term of three to twelve months). France, would become the new big country, after the United States to lose the precious talisman financially.

This warning is justified? The presidential campaign hostage rating agencies?

The possibility of a deterioration in France is not a surprise. The warning from Moody's, yes. Rating agencies usually just an opinion or negative stable and degrade or maintain the rating. This is especially the timing is symbolic in three months, the campaign for the Elysee Palace in full swing.A negative outlook on the triple A French will become a major issue of debate. The presidential campaign of 2012 will therefore be under supervision of rating agencies. Read about the blog corridors Bercy.

Concerns about a possible deterioration in the sovereign rating lights are not new. France shows the worst ratios of budget club triple A. Government deficit (5.7% this year) exceeds the level of other triple-A in the euro area (Germany is 0.9%, Denmark 4.8%, Netherlands 3.9% Austria 3% and Sweden has a surplus of 1.5%). France, also displays a primary deficit (excluding debt burden) twice (3% of GDP) than its neighbors (1.6% in the Netherlands, Austria 0.9%, 0.5% Luxembourg, while Germany and Finland should generate a primary surplus this year).Finally, France is also one of the few members of the Triple A club to suffer from a deficit in its trade balance. Also, since the deterioration of the U.S. Standard & Poor's this summer, the French note seems undeserved. However, all agencies – including Moody's – had denied market rumors in August, reiterating that they maintained their confidence in the Triple A of France.

The context was it damaged?

Since this summer, nothing goes to France: there was no growth in the second quarter and looks just as sluggish by the end of the year, the euro area is still mired in the debt crisis and banks French are in the financial market turmoil. This is precisely what worries Moody's. It is "crucial" for France to maintain "investor confidence in its ability and willingness to deal with unexpected challenges," noted the agency in a statement.Or "France could face a number of challenges in the coming months – such as the need for additional support to other European countries or its own banking system, which could increase so significant commitments to be borne by the budget of the country, "she adds. In short: France has more financial flexibility. We understand better the current government reluctance to recapitalize its banks with public money and increase the discount to private creditors of Greece.

What consequences for France if they lose their triple A?

The fact benefit from the best possible rating allows France to borrow in the markets on very favorable terms to finance its debt. Lose this note would increase interest rates, so an increase in the cost of borrowing of the French state.The difference between the rates of French government bonds to 10 years (OAT) and German government securities of similar maturity (Bund) has also passed on Tuesday for the first time, a percentage point. At the same time, insurance against a default on the obligations of the French state (CDS) increased by 10 basis points. Currently, it costs 194,000 euros to insure against exposure to 10 million euros in French government bonds. France must make 8.6 billion euros of bonds by December and 179 billion in 2012 to renew its stock of debt. Direct consequence for the first time, the debt burden will be the first budget item next year, on top of School. According to government projections, it will amount to 48.77 billion euros. If France is losing its triple A, it could be more.Because unlike the United States, whose Treasury bills are still considered a safe haven, the obligations of the French state is not immune to a general distrust of investors, because of the context of European crisis.

And for Europe?

The loss of the triple A French would not be good news for the euro area. This would call into question the quality of borrower of the European Financial Stability (EFSF, which currently enjoys the highest rating possible), because France is the second largest guarantor. Now this tool is the cornerstone of the plan to end the crisis in the euro area. Moreover, France would potentially the camp of countries to aid those who need help.This would call into question the relationship quickly the Franco-German motor of advances in European governance, as both countries do more than talk on equal terms (triple A to triple A). The temptation would be great for the best students in the euro area to operate in a vacuum and cease to be in solidarity with the lower-rated countries. This would result in the breakup of the euro area.

Can we avoid losing our triple A?

"The continued commitment to implement economic reform measures and budget, and visible progress in the goals" for reducing debt "will be important for maintaining the stable outlook" of the note of the country said Moody's. The Minister of Economy and Finance Baroin said Tuesday that Paris would "do everything possible" to keep its deficit reduction targets.For 2011, the deficit target of 5.7% seems achievable. He enrolled in the draft budget law in 2012 (4.6% of GDP), that MPs prepare to vote today, the state seems inaccessible, because built on a growth assumption of 1.75 %. However, most forecasters expect at best a GDP growth of 0.9% next year. That means ten billion euros in additional savings to identify. Last night, Prime Minister Francois Fillon acknowledged that it will take "new measures" austerity if growth is not at the rendezvous. At the risk of bringing France into the spiral-rigor recession in Greece and Portugal for two years.

The new organization called the head of Renault after the false spy case will come into force on 2 November as planned and strengthen the power of the CEO Carlos Ghosn with the aim to avoid the fiasco of the early recurrence in 2011.

Two audits were presented last April to the board of the diamond group to shed light on the failures that led to falsely accuse several of its executives of industrial espionage.An audit was conducted in-house and one by the firm Bearing Point.

Among the organizational changes confirmed Friday night in a brief statement included a redesign of the security service of Renault, who was at the heart of the case that began in January and now suspected to be a scam.

The new management of protection and prevention group, the prerogatives extended, will be led by Eric the Great, who was previously a function similar to the Post Office.But in the future to reduce the risk of error, the direction will be doubly locked with the appointment of an Inspector General, Jean-Marc Berlioz, who led a time IGPN (General Inspectorate of the National Police), and who will report directly to the CEO.

"President Carlos Ghosn had communicated its intention to implement all the report's findings as soon as possible," it said in a statement from Renault.

The new organization also confirms the reunification of HRD and the enlargement of the former General Secretariat (support functions, management and legal protection group, the famous security service), Mouna Sepehri told.Both services are now placed directly under the authority of Carlos Ghosn, and not under that of his number two as in the previous architecture.

The responsibilities of the new Chief Operating Officer Carlos Tavares are reduced compared to those of his predecessor Patrick Pélata, ousted after the affair.

Carlos Ghosn turns his back on a tandem operation that has punctuated the history of Renault with famous couples, like the one formed by CEO Louis Schweitzer and the Secretary General Michel de Virville in the 1990s.

So far, Carlos Ghosn had seemed like a time to step back and focus on long-term strategy of the Renault-Nissan, and had delegated for this purpose from 2008 operational direction of the diamond group at Patrick Pélata.

"It's a good thing he is more responsible for Renault, he made it clear from the case that the company was within its responsibility, and employees expect there to be a boss and a single" said a source told Reuters the company.

The state, which owns 15% of Renault, has never hidden its displeasure over the matter.Renault said Friday that Veronica Dosdat named director of public affairs, will be responsible for defending the interests of the group with public authorities in France and worldwide.

REDESIGN THE COMMUNICATION

Audits of spring had never accepted the responsibility of the CEO of Renault.The two reports believed that the president of the company was not part of those "who played a key role in the investigation of the case and / or the anchoring of the belief that it was a case of corruption.

Carlos Ghosn had however provided in January at 20 hours of TF1 that he had "certainty" and evidence "multiple" to support the dismissal of executives.

The espionage case ultimately led to the indictment of Dominique Gevrey, one of the security officials of Renault for organized fraud.The executives were charged for their compensation and, for two of them returned to Renault.

The audit also recommends the establishment of a new management expanded audit and risk management, reporting directly to Carlos Ghosn, whose spokeswoman for Renault said it would be entrusted to Farid Aractingi, who held this function in the previous version of the chart.

Mouna Sepheri had also given the task of learning from the management of the crisis in communications.The audit criticized the internal and external communications have left no room for doubt for several weeks, the group announced Friday the appointment of a new communications director e, in the person of the automotive journalist Florence Goldfiem.

Faced with strong pressure on financial markets and fears of a relapse of the economy in recession, the Federal Reserve prepares to influence long rates to support economic activity, an action similar to that conducted in the years 60 and then christened "Operation Twist".

With an eye on the sinking of the crisis of sovereign debt in Europe and another on an unemployment rate fails to fall below 9% in the U.S., the Fed, whose monetary policy committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, is expected to gradually change the composition of its balance sheet in order to increase the share of long-term securities.

While interest rates in the short term are close to zero and that the balance was weighted by purchasing debt securities for more than 2.000 billion dollars without conclusive effect on the economy for now, the Fed should look to support new ways of focusing on its balance sheet on the long-term bonds at the expense of short titles.

"The signal that the Fed is still active in supporting growth," said Michelle Meyer, economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

A series of disappointing economic indicators were dampened hopes for an accelerated growth in the second half in the United States, after a first half of the year without momentum.

U.S. growth was 1.0% annual rate in the first half and representatives from the Fed announced a downward revision of economic forecasts.

The weaker growth outlook in the summer had led the Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke to announce at the end of last month that the work of the Monetary Policy Committee would take place over two days in September rather than alone.

United States, the loss of the AAA, announced August 6 by the rating agency Standard & Poor's in light of the political divisions in the consolidation of public finances, caused a shock to business confidence and households.

In August, the U.S. economy has not created any employment and retail sales stagnated.

CONSENSUS

At the same time the crisis of sovereign debt in the euro area has increased and the lowering surprise a notch by S & P notes short and long term of Italy, still on negative watch by Moody's, fueled fears of contagion fueled by the situation in Greece.

Other central banks have inflected their monetary policy to reflect the deteriorating global economic environment during the summer.

The European Central Bank kept its rates unchanged last week and reported at least a pause in the recovery cycle that began in April.The central banks of Canada, South Korea and Indonesia among others have given to tighten monetary conditions.

Within the Fed, the consensus of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee seems to have shifted in favor of a change in the balance sheet structure, the total reached 2800 billion, to lengthen their maturity.

The objective of this initiative is to influence long rates to lower the cost of housing finance for households and investment for businesses.

Further reducing long-term rates, the Fed could also encourage investors to look to assets with better returns theory, such as stocks or corporate bonds.

Representatives from the Fed could consider more radical alternatives such as targeting a level of employment, growth or price beyond the current target inflation while the booking if the economy were to deteriorate significantly.

Representatives of the Fed, however, divided on the need for further action.Any further easing, even the simple extension of the maturity of the balance sheet, should be rejected by three members of the Monetary Policy Committee as was the case Aug. 9, when the Fed had decided to extend until at least mid- 2013 the period during which it would keep interest rates at a very low level.

If Ben Bernanke will be keen to get the widest possible consensus on any new initiative, economists do not expect that dissenting voices are a barrier to action.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB), as expected, Thursday maintained its monetary policy at zero, but significantly lowered its estimates for growth and inflation.

The SNB lowered its growth forecast of gross domestic product (GDP) now expects an increase between 1.5 and 2% in 2011 instead of 2% "about".

It relies now on a 0.4% inflation in 2011 and a deflation of 0.3% for 2012 as it foresaw in June respectively rates of 0.9% and 1%. For 2013, the central bank refers to a price increase of 0.5% versus 1.7% previously.

The SNB justifies its decision by explaining that it expected GDP growth will stop in the second half.It recalls that in Switzerland, the development of the economy "is hampered both by the strength of the franc and the decline in foreign demand."

The SNB repeat it "will prevail over the floor of 1.20 francs per euro, fixed on September 6, with all the required determination." She intends to keep the total deposits on demand well above 200 billion francs.

"Without the stabilizing effects of the floor price, the risk of recession would be significant," she warns.

The central bank believes, however, that even at 1.20 franc per euro, the franc is at a high level."If the economic outlook and the risks of deflation required by the National Bank will take additional steps," she adds.

She noted that the downside risks could occur at price stability if the franc were to cease to weaken.

The SNB has kept its rate fluctuation corridor Libor in Swiss francs at three months from 0 to 0.25%, which was expected by 34 economists polled by Reuters.

The exemption from taxation of capital gains on sale of property, excluding principal residence, will no longer only after 30 years, against 15 at present. From 1 February 2012, the exemption from taxation of real estate capital gains will be complete only after 30 years in prison.

First measure of austerity, the new method of taxation of capital gains, property was passed in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday. After a lengthy discussion of the implementing rules, MEPs adopted the exemption of real estate gains of second homes after 30 years of holding the property. The current system reduces the taxable gain on resale of 10% per year from five years of detention, where a full exemption after 15 years ..

The entry into force of the device has also been postponed to 1 February 2012 and not August 25, 2011.Which will result in a shortfall of 180 million euros this year. In the end, the measure will bring 2.05 billion euros in 2012 instead of the 2.2 billion expected previously.

The compromise, "a major effort" according to Valerie Pécresse, Minister for the Budget, is in fact a system of progressive discounts. A number of deputies to the UMP and the New Center, wanted to return to the detail and the regressivity of the system over time. Now it will be 2% for each year between 5 and 15 years in prison, 4% for each year beyond 17 years, 8% beyond 24 years to 30 years. That amendment, designed to "take into account inflation in the 80" results in "an additional cost of 30 million" annually, said Ms. Pécresse.

During the debate, Michel Bouvard (UMP) has highlighted the issue of those who have no residence, untaxed, and holder of a second home."We need to think about it" in the forthcoming Finance Bill 2012, the minister conceded.