Top Economics News

Barclays Bank has sold its retail banking operations in France, Les Echos reported in its Tuesday edition.

The newspaper announced on its front page "A" that the British group does want to keep in the Hexagon as their operations to large corporations.

It indicates that the Postal Bank and the HSBC Group "could bid".

No one was contacted Monday evening with the French bank for comment.

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Francois Hollande took over France in a low growth in Europe depressed, with the main challenges the recovery of public accounts and employment.

The pressure is on the new president, who knows that its room for maneuver is more limited than those of his predecessors.

Having identified the growth as a condition of the reduction of public deficits in Europe, it will negotiate, particularly with Germany, measures to stimulate activity without deteriorating accounts of the States.

In France, he inherits an annual deficit of about € 100 billion, focused on the state and the financial statements. 

He promises to bring the end of 2011 from 5.2% to 3% of GDP end 2013 in accordance with the commitment of France, by raising taxes and curbing the rise in die ; think the effort is balanced between the two.

Priority of the French unemployment rises, it, every month for nearly a year and reached a forgotten since the late twentieth century.

To reverse the trend, adapting the social system and revive the industry, the new president plans to use fiscal and budgetary weapons and engage in important negotiations with employers' organizations and union. 

FAITH IN THE FUTURE

Like his predecessors, he hopes to be helped by a more dynamic growth than await the IMF, OECD, the European Commission and economists. Additional austerity measures could therefore be required.

GDP would grow by 0.5% according to him this year, 1.7% in 2013, 2% in 2014, and 2% to 2.5% from 2015.

Economists at Credit Agricole CIB-felt before the second round it was a forecast "too optimistic".

"Both programs lack a credible comprehensive strategy to boost competitiveness and growth", they added about the finalists.

Francois Hollande opposed to a sudden slowdown in public spending, want to avoid explaining a recessive effect that dry up the revenue of the state and would increase the deficit instead to reduce it. 

Increased spending would be 1.1% per year – against an average of 1.7% from 2007 to 2010 – which would decrease the amount as a percentage of GDP if growth is there.

His relatives said that the rating agencies were watching the growth prospects of the states, not just fiscal ratios.

Degraded by Standard and Poor's earlier this year, the memo from France – ever "triple A" by Moody's and Fitch – is negative outlook for all three agencies, which means other damage are possible.

RECOVERY HISTORY

Francois Hollande promises to balance the public accounts end of 2017, a first since 1974. The effort would be one hundred billion over five years, including about forty by the end of 2013, provided that the annual defense budget.

"Despite the strong commitment of candidates to control deficits, we highlight the historical magnitude of the adjustment would be needed", noted analysts at Barclays.

To lower the debt ratio to GDP, which tends toward 90%, about 80% end of 2017, Francois Hollande provides significant tax increases, where the impact would be in his the less sensitive: the richest households and the largest enterprises.

Thirty billion of new taxes would reduce the deficit, and fifteen more would finance a portion of its 20 billion euros of measures. Some of these measures according to him should support growth and employment, others restore "justice" as the softening of the pension reform.

It is however committed to removing the VAT hike decided for the month of October and that would affect all consumers.

Faced with unemployment at its highest since 1999, Francois Hollande relies on a battery of policy measures – including an increase in recruitment of officials – and on support for small and medium enterprises.

He promises a "generation contract" to integrate young people into the business while retaining older workers, and the creation of 150,000 "jobs of the future", a discount of up to date "youth jobs" of the Jospin government. He announced a refocusing of training on the less educated public and strengthening the capacity of job center.

STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES

The new president will also reduce structural weaknesses that undermine the French economy since the end of the "thirty glorious years".

The foreign trade surplus that has been ten years since 1950, had a deficit of 70 billion euros last year, a record. The market share of France in world trade deteriorates to 3.3% last year against 5.8% in 1995. Exports and the deficit with the EU, representing 61% of total products sold outside France, widened further.

The imbalance of foreign trade is reflected in the current account deficit, which measures the evolution of the country's debt vis-à-vis the outside, so that almost ; s two-thirds of the stock of marketable debt held by French non-residents.

Francois Hollande surprised during the campaign by his discretion on structural reforms intended to reduce these imbalances.

"The discussions on an agenda of structural reforms (labor, goods and services) are, surprisingly, absent from the campaign of Francois Hollande," analysts at Barclays stressed. "That said, we see reason to believe in the ability of Francois Hollande to reform: the Socialist Party has traditionally good relations with social partners and Francois Hollande is known for build consensus. "

For Gilles Moec, Deutsche Bank, "its goal of zero deficit in 2017 is underpinned by ambitious growth forecasts which we believe are not credible without reforms rapid structural on which the Socialists are now completely silent. "

The Eramet Group, whose sales fell 10% in the first quarter, said Thursday that operating profit in the first half should be lower than the first half 2012 due to the falling price of nickel and manganese.

The turnover of the mining group totaled 877 million euros in Q1 2012 against 973 million a year earlier (-7% at constant perimeter.)

The decline is 20% in the activity of manganese and nickel in 13% compared to first quarter 2011, while world production of stainless steel fell by around 3%. 

"As previously announced, average prices of nickel and manganese are the beginning of the year at levels below the current average of 2011 ", said in a statement the group, who still expects an increase of its turnover in the second quarter compared to first quarter 2012.

Apple announced Tuesday the results well above expectations, thanks to strong demand for its iPhone and iPad, numbers that advance the action of the American group of more than 7% in exchange for after-hours trading.

The first global stock market capitalization has reported earnings per share for the second quarter of 2011-2012 and $ 12.30 a turnover of 39.2 billion.

Financial analysts had expected, respectively 10.04 and 36.82 billion dollars, according to Thomson Reuters consensus I / B / E / S.

Apple said it sold 35.1 million iPhones in the period, an increase of 88% from a year ago. Analysts had expected about 30 million deliveries.

"The iPhone sales have exploded internationally," said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple's chief financial officer, during an interview with Reuters.

The number of elapsed iPad is 11.8 million, an increase of 151% over the second quarter of 2010-2011.

For the third quarter, said the group anticipates earnings per share of about 8.68 dollars and an annual turnover of about $ 34 billion, against expectations of 9.93 dollars and 37 respectively , 45 billion, according to Thomson Reuters consensus I / B / E / S.

Gross margin for the second quarter stood at 47.7% against 41.4% a year ago. 

"The margin is very high, which means that concerns about subsidies, price pressures were exaggerated. This shows that the group of flexibility on price, not only among consumers but also among operators, "said Shaw Wu, an analyst at Sterne Agee.

The way Apple had finished down by 1.99% to 560.28 dollars, due to movement of profit taking at work for several sessions.

The action group is more than up some 39% since the beginning of the year, against an advance of nearly 60% earlier this month.

European shares closed sharply lower Friday, weakened by the tensions of the Spanish sovereign debt and growth of Chinese considered disappointing first quarter.

In Paris the CAC 40 lost 2.47% to 3,189.09 points, regaining its level of more than two months.

For the week, shortened because of Easter Monday, the index lost 3.94%.

The decline was accentuated in the afternoon after an indicator of U.S. consumer sentiment slightly below expectations and statements of Klaas Knot, member of the Board of Governors of the European Central Bank, hoping to avoid having to resort to new purchases of government securities. 

"After rising yesterday as investors returned to the real problems of the Spanish debt. Klaas Knot's statements have put water on the fire," said Pierre Barral, portfolio manager at Convictions AM.

Klaas Knot, at a conference in Amsterdam, said:

"The instrument has not been used for a long time but it exists. I'm glad it was not used, I hope we will never to use it. "

"I do not think we are approaching the precipice, I think the markets have overreacted a little" (for Spain).

The London Stock Exchange yielded 1.03%, 2.36% Frankfurt, Milan and Madrid 3.43% 3.58%. Of the European indices, the Euro Stoxx 50 lost 2.58% and 1.63% Eurofirst 300.

Bank stocks and cyclicals suffered the largest declines sector in Europe, with a loss of 3% for the bank and 2.6% for cars.

The euro a little more resistant than shares and lost 0.8% against the greenback around 1.3080 dollar.

Values ​​to follow Tuesday at the Paris Bourse.

* GDF SUEZ announced he would propose to its shareholders to receive shares in a portion of the dividends for 2011 and 2012 to complete the refinancing of its tender offer to minority shareholders of Britain's International Power.

* PSA Peugeot Citroën has signed with a subsidiary of Ivanhoe Cambridge real estate arm of the Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec, a sales agreement for the sale of its headquarters Avenue de la Grande Armee in Paris.

* BOLLORÉ. The mutual insurer Groupama said Monday it has sold all its shares, or 3.10% stake in the diversified group.

* AIR FRANCE has placed its short and medium haul business in the center of its turnaround plan and said that the maintenance of this activity depend on a "radical restructuring" and reduced "drastically costs ".

Increasing the number of unemployed is expected to slow in February, according to the head of state. He sees a sign of economic recovery. For the month of February, Nicolas Sarkozy expected to increase "quite moderate" unemployment.

The president candidate unveils unemployment figures in February. Nicolas Sarkozy says the monthly unemployment statistics, which will be published on Monday evening show "a fairly moderate increase" the number of job seekers for February.

"The numbers tonight will demonstrate an improvement in the situation with a declining trend in increasing the number of unemployed. This increase is quite moderate," Sarkozy said on France Info. He said it "reflects a significant economic recovery since we tried to solve the financial crisis in Greece, this financial crisis that created a crisis of confidence, which itself creates an economic crisis".

In January, the number of unemployed rose by 0.5% compared to December, a rate cut in half compared to previous months, the total number of unemployed at 2.8 million people.

March 11, 2011, a violent earthquake struck Japan, followed by a giant tsunami that resulted in the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Quantitative assessment, inventory of nuclear stock of the Japanese economy: five links to learn more about this sad anniversary. Tepco employees check the levels of radioactivity of the nuclear accident in Fukushima, in the province of Daiichi (northeastern Japan)

There are just over a year, March 11, 2011, northeastern Japan was devastated by an earthquake measuring nine coupled with a tsunami of historic proportions. The disaster has claimed thousands of victims, caused enormous damage and caused the nuclear accident at Fukushima.

In pictures, the great figures of the earthquake

Minami-Soma, city of Fukushima prefecture, was devastated by the disaster. This small coastal town near the nuclear power plant has lost thousands of its inhabitants. The survivors are now wondering about their future. Many have already fled. Remain ghosts and memories.

Report: After Fukushima, the city of Minami-Soma broken

That day, March 11, 2011, Naoto Kan, the then Prime Minister of Japan, was in the upper house of the Diet, where he answered questions from the opposition. Exclusive to L'Express, he tells how he lived and managed the disaster crisis.

Interview: "Fukushima has a human cause"

The disaster cost the Japanese economy has plunged into recession. Japan's GDP fell 0.7% in 2011. The country now seems out of crisis. Growth expected to reach 2% this year. But this rebound is largely artificial.

Analysis: What is the Japanese economy?

The Fukushima nuclear disaster has brought discredit to the entire industry. Fear of nuclear is back in the public opinion of developed countries, pushing many governments – including Germany – have announced their willingness to exit this mode of energy production. Yet it is clear that today's nuclear industry is doing well. Besides the contrasting reactions in the West, emerging countries are determined to take advantage of the strengths of the atom.

Understanding: Why nuclear winter has not taken place

In Japan, only three of 54 reactors still operating aujoud'hui. That of Fukushima is stopped. The area is off limits, because the radioactivity level is high. Tepco, the operator says the situation is under control. Roland Desbordes, Commission President for Research and Independent Information on Radioactivity (Criirad), in doubt.

Interview: "The explosion in central Fukushima is still possible"

In France, where 80% of electricity is nuclear, Fukushima has shaken public opinion. The debate on nuclear phase-out has made a great comeback. A year later, ecology seems the most overlooked of the presidential campaign. Environmentalists, advocates of a permanent exit from nuclear, are credited with less than 5% of the vote. Their socialist allies negotiated a minimum agreement. A group called "Generation Fukushima", who fight against nuclear power, attempts to remedy this lack.

Read on Express Yourself: "Your nuclear legacy, we do not want it!"

Over 80% of private creditors of Athens agreed to participate in the restructuring of the country's debt will be reduced by 107 billion euros. The agreement paves the way for the release of a new international loan which will prevent the default. Three of the four ministers of the Greek far-right party Laos opposing the new austerity measures demanded by the creditors of the countries presented their resignations Friday, February 10

Greece can heave a sigh of relief. The plan to restructure its huge debt raised almost 84% acceptance of all its private creditors, including only 85.8% of bondholders under Greek law.

Result: some 107 billion euros over the 206 billion euros of Greek debt held by banks, insurers, investment funds and pension funds will simply be deleted. A very short term, the agreement removes the risk of default since the country had to repay € 14.4 billion on March 20. It also unlocks additional European assistance than 130 billion euros that will enable it to meet its medium-term future échéanches.

If Greece has avoided a default unchecked, this rate is still insufficient compared to the 90% target that was set by the government, explaining that he had to recommend the activation of collective action clauses attached to the bonds to be exchanged.

They are forcing carriers reluctant to accept the terms of trade and should be ultimately the acceptance rate at 95.7% said the Finance Ministry statement. "The holders of approximately 172 billion euros of bonds by Greek law" have accepted the proposal made by the Hellenic Republic on February 24 to exchange their debt securities against other securities whose face value was reduced 50% said the statement.

"I wish to express my gratitude to all our creditors who supported our ambitious program of reform and adjustment and shared sacrifices of the people in its historic effort" praised the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said in a statement. The exchange of specific securities to be held Monday, March 12 for bonds by Greek law, but an extension until March 23 was granted to holders of non-Greek right to present their response to the proposal. This delay does not allow those who have already joined to the bid to reverse their decision.

The partners of Greece indeed want the private sector do its part in the rescue effort of the country, with a contribution sufficient to provide debt reduction to 120.5% of GDP in 2020, a ratio expected to guarantee the country's return to solvency.

Successful restructuring opens the door to the contrary release 130 billion of loans provided by the euro area in late October. These two components, debt and bailouts, make up the second bailout of the country developed its international partners, after an initial infusion of 110 billion granted in 2010.

Greece may need extra help and we can not exclude an enhanced firepower of the European Stability Mechanism (MES), the future permanent emergency fund in the euro area , says Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann.

"I would not trust someone who would declare that (help) to Greece is sufficient," he says in an interview with the newspaper Österreich. "For Greece, it depends on their ability to comply with the measures (reform) across several elections."

The Chancellor did not rule out building a resource of MES, holding that it "may be necessary".

French President Nicolas Sarkozy confirmed Friday that a long-awaited decision on this matter would take place probably by the end of March and it was expected by then to "initiatives ".

In late February, France and Belgium said they agreed to enhance TSS with the ways of his predecessor, the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). 

The proposal would combine 250 billion still available within the EFSF with EUR 500 billion planned for the SS to create a financial firewall that can better fight against a contagious the debt crisis, but Germany still seems reluctant to the idea.

Faymann also believes that the EU should continue to support not only Greece, but Portugal, Italy and Spain.

"Let us not forget that our economy is strongly linked to that of Italy," argued the Austrian Chancellor, adding that Rome was in a better position than Athens.