Top Economics News

After the loss of triple A, the real estate professionals were inclined rather to an increase in lending rates. But the opposite occurs in February, according to the online broker best rate.

Contrary to the fears widely reported by the loss of triple-A, mortgage rates are down slightly for this month. This is apparent from a study of online broker, Meilleurtaux.com. In February, 45% of banks show declines of 0.15 points on average, 31% have left the stable. Only 24% have made gains. Overall, the average credit rate stood at 4.28% against 4.31% in January.

OAT rates down

"We do not expect this result" surprising Sandrine Allonier, head of economic research meilleurtaux.com. It must be said that the rate of OAT (comparable Treasury obligations), that is to say the rate at which France takes the 10-year bond has not increased. The Hexagon borrows at preferential rates. And on the contrary, it borrows a better rate. "For example, in February it reached 2.89%, whereas before the loss of the triple A, it was 3.40%," says Sandrine Allonier. Second explanation, the rates of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the interbank rate, the interest rate charged between banks themselves, remain stable. Finally, the loss of the AAA had been anticipated by financial markets and banks have rebuilt their capital. Consequently, they can lower their lending rates long and short term.

March, the month in real estate transactions

"Presumably, this slight decline will continue in March, one month is very rich in real estate transactions." Banks are trying to position themselves in relation to competition. Hence their strategy to attract new customers by lower lending rates in the long and short term. "Some had rates at 4.30%, which rose 4% in February. These banks want to take their game," said Ms. Allonier. Before continuing, "the banks are still selective about the cases. All require a contribution of 10%."

Apply for credit up

The increase in the number of credit reports is the second conclusion of the study meilleurtaux.com. A figure up 20% compared with December, while still down 2% year on year. Borrowers do not turn away the real estate market. There are still a safe haven, especially since many of them expect lower prices in 2012, "the order of 5% in some areas," said Sandrine Allonier. However, "there is a caution for future buyers: they are occasionally more likely to assess their borrowing capacity before they have found a property. Those who led a project with a signed sales agreement fell 4% over a year. "

The new car registrations fell 20.7% in January. The slump was even more dramatic for PSA Peugeot Citroen and Renault. The new Renault parked Flins-sur-Seine, near Paris The French car market plunged in January, a victim of weak controls and an unfavorable comparison with the beginning of the year 2011 where he had been supported by the premium to casse.Les registrations fell 20.7% in raw data to 147,143 units, according to the Committee of French Automobile Manufacturers (CCFA). A comparable number of working days, the decline is even greater at 24.3%. The meltdown is spectacular for the two French carmakers. Registrations of PSA Peugeot Citroën have collapsed by 27.4% (30% for Peugeot and Citroen 25%) and those of the Renault group 32.7% (-37% for the Renault brand and -10.5 % for the low cost brand Dacia). unfavorable base effect "It is like the month of January 2011 which was the highest for ten years" with over 185,000 new cars sold, moderates a spokesman for the CCFA. The scrappage scheme, set up by the government to support sales during the crisis, had been reduced gradually and disappeared completely at 31 December 2010. But it was on cars purchased and delivered to date through March 2011.Pour However, the aftermath of his death is not sufficient alone to explain the plunge last month. "We know that the orders (new car, note) were low in December, resulting in registrations," said the spokesman for the CCFA, which warns that the first quarter should be in part difficile.Chômage PSAConcernant orders in January, "they were stable compared to last year" for Renault, said France's commercial director Bernard Cambier. Peugeot, however, rose by 20%, according to the director of Peugeot France, Olivier Veyrier. To face these headwinds, PSA has already planned a week of partial unemployment in February or March for more than 20,000 of its employees to reduce the major German manufacturers stocks.Les gagnantsLes German manufacturers, champions of high-end, n have not this problem. Their registrations rose in January, 18% for the Volkswagen group, 16% for BMW. Only the group runs out of steam Mercedes (+0.8%), due to the underperformance of its brand Smart (-26%). Sales of Nissan Japan also increased, while those of the American Ford, General Motors, the Toyota Japanese, Italian Fiat and Hyundai have décru.La Korean War price until when? To boost sales, the groups are likely to continue the price war in which they are engaged for several months. But "manufacturers can not continue to have sustainable margins deteriorate," warned the president of the National Professional automotive (CNPA) Patrick Bailly. In this context, "the launches of new models of French manufacturers, PSA for the 208 and the new Clio Renault, will have considerable importance," warns Flavien Neuvy, head of the observatory Cetelem.La Peugeot 208 will go on sale this spring. The Clio IV will appear in dealerships this fall. Renault is also counting on the future Dacia SUV, the Lodgy. "This is the heart of their range and sales," said Mr. Neuvy still, for whom the French could enable cars to boost sales to individuals who continue to decline, unlike those companies. Registrations of light commercial vehicles, specialty French manufacturers, have better kept, with a decline of 2.5% in raw data to 32,707 units.

Greece wants a solution to their debt problems that would apply to all of its debt maturing until 2035, said Monday a government source.

"We think of all the Greek debt, expiring until 2035, not 2020 as planned in the previous plan," the source said, adding that "nothing can be done without the European Central Bank ".

Leaders of the 17 euro zone members must agree by the EU summit Wednesday on how the second aid package granted to Greece, including a marked discount on Greek bonds held by the private sector , which represent the 200 billion euros.

"We oppose any unilateral action that could be interpreted as a reconstruction of the debt," the source said.

Whatever emerges from the top of Wednesday, Greek banks are not nationalized, also said the source.

According to the information that leaked a report on the debt of Greece by international inspectors, it seems that the second aid package of € 109 billion agreed in July is no longer sufficient unless private investors n 'accept a discount of 60% on their Greek bonds.

Without it, it would take more than 250 billion euros for Greece is solvent, say economists.

Total discovered gas and oil off the coast of Norway, announced Thursday the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

According to preliminary estimates, this discovery is to be between 19 million and 101 million barrels.

The discovery was made in the Norwegian Sea, about 8 miles west of the oil and gas Norn.

"The development of this discovery will be considered in conjunction with other deposits in the region," said the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate said in a statement.

To dig the well that led to this discovery, Total was allied with Norway's Statoil, authorities said.

France and Belgium flew Tuesday to rescue Dexia, ensuring that both countries would take all necessary measures to ensure its funding while its share price collapsed and the specter of a rollback.

Following a board meeting of an emergency, the Franco-Belgian bank said in the night to consider measures to enable it to strengthen its financial structure, without, however, categorically rule out the scenario of a split, what 'She was still there just a few days.

Dexia shares had lost up to 38% in the morning Tuesday, reaching its lowest historical levels, then some limit its losses by early afternoon.

Around 2:00 p.m., Dexia lost 13.5% to 1.12 euro, while the European index of banks, although affected by the new fears of Greek sovereign debt, limiting its losses to 4.6%.The stock has lost 54% since the beginning of the year, bringing its market capitalization of 2.2 billion euros.

The scenario of a dismantling of Dexia as structural solution to the financial difficulties of the Franco-Belgian bank has not been formally denied by the Belgian or French.

A French government source said, however, "reject" this term, preferring to speak of a major asset disposal.

The group is mainly composed of a retail bank in Belgium, a private bank in Luxembourg, a division of funding for local authorities in France and banking Denizbank in Turkey.

Meeting in Luxembourg for a council of the European Union finance ministers Belgian and French said the two countries brought their guarantee to finance Dexia without specifying the terms of the transaction.

GUARANTEED FINANCING

"We guarantee funding.For the procedures, there are instances, let the time to organize these deliberative bodies (…) All we are saying is that states will meet present as in 2008, "said Baroin to press.

The question of a recapitalization by the States, would constitute a de facto quasi-nationalization has not been formally excluded.

"Everything will depend on the scheme presented by the management of Dexia," said his side the Belgian Minister of Finance.

Speculation about the future of Dexia also include the creation of a "bad bank", a bad bank that would separate confined bond portfolios at risk for the bank.

The creation of a new French bank – which would lean part of the portfolio of loans to local Dexia to those of the Deposit and the Post Bank – also seems likely.

The possibility of a sale to another Dexia European banking group, on the model of Fortis sold to BNP Paribas, has not favored by analysts, investors, stressing that Dexia is not salable as such.

The announcement Sunday that Greece would not take the objectives of fiscal consolidation has aroused the distrust of investors and markets, accelerating the pressure on the most vulnerable groups such as Dexia.

French household consumption of goods increased by 0.2% in August after a decline of similar magnitude in July, show statistics released Friday by INSEE.

Economists polled by Reuters on average expected a stable consumption in July and up 0.3% in August. The growth in consumption in June was revised down to 0.9% against 1.2% originally announced.

"The slight decline in July due mainly to a decline in purchases of cars and housing equipment," INSEE said in a statement."The recovery in consumption in cars and rising energy costs contributed to the slight increase in consumption in August."

Spending on durable goods rose 0.8% in July but remained stable in August. Purchases of automobiles rose 0.9% last month after falling 1.5% in July, according to Insee attributable decline in second-hand market.

"However, note INSEE, after the sharp increase in June (+3.9%), purchases of equipment housing down again in July (-0.7%) and August (-1.7% ).The decrease concerns in particular the purchase of furniture. "

Purchases of textiles and leather rose 1.0% in July after rising 3.6% in June but fell 2.3% in August.

Consumer spending in other manufactured goods rose 0.2% in July but fell even in August.

Meanwhile, household consumption of energy has accelerated markedly in August (+2.6% after +0.2% in July), a movement linked in particular to fuel costs.

It would be more optimistic. But this week, what looked like vile premonitions markets began to be realized. Back to the bad news that destabilized the stock markets. A trader at the New York Stock Exchange, September 22, 2011. The Fed and the IMF say they fear a recession

If grants are all black is that they painted a very grim future. The IMF had laid the groundwork earlier this week by revising down its forecast strong global growth, and considering the "worst case scenario", a recession in major developed countries that would eventually weigh on emerging markets.While the IMF does not make his case a priority – rather table it is growing very soft, the risk has become more consistency Wednesday with what the Fed's emphasis on "continuing weakness" of the labor market United States and the "significant risks" associated with "pressure on global financial markets." This pessimism was immediately stunned the markets. And the more they learned that private sector activity in the euro area was recorded in September, its first decline in two years. And that manufacturing activity had declined in China. If even the Middle Kingdom began to fail …

The failure of Greece is similar

Athens is back to the wall. For the loan of 8 billion euros of its creditors and avoid failure in October, Greece has agreed to a new "social massacre" which includes a tax on income from 416 euros per month.Moreover, the second aid plan in advance of July 21 at idle. Europe seems unable to speed up, as shown by the peak in Poland last weekend. And despite the talk of intentions, the scenario of the failure seems inevitable. Greek media have raised the idea on Friday the government to cancel 50% of the debt. Which would lead to a loss of 25 billion euros for Greek banks, most of which have just been degraded by Moody's. The announcement was immediately denied by the government. Until when?

Standard & Poors downgraded the debt rating Italian

This is a first for the boot, Standard & Poor's downgraded the rating on Monday of the Italian debt. This decision did not sway the markets, which expected, but investors fear the domino effect.Growth prospects of the country are particularly likely to be sealed by the new austerity plan of 54.2 billion euros. In turn, Moody's announced that it would degrade Italy "in the coming months." Rome is not the only "lame duck" of Europe. Portugal, already qualified for a loan of 78 billion euros, is in trouble after the discovery of an undeclared debt 1, 68 billion euros. As for Slovenia, she saw the note be degraded by Moody's on Friday. Only Ireland, recovering, doing well with the announcement Thursday of a 1.6% growth in the second quarter. Rare enough to be highlighted …

Brussels acknowledges the need to recapitalize banks

After weeks of procrastination, public authorities have come to settle international: Some European banks will be recapitalized.After Christine Lagarde, who launched the attack late August, the EU has abdicated this week. The IMF, which recommends that banks can recapitalize directly from EFSF, it is estimated that 300 million bill from the Greek crisis for the banking sector. According to the British press, 16 banks have failed those tests fail to stress – be in the viewfinder of EBA (EBA). But the French, who are yet in the heart of stock market panic, would not be affected. Such as Germany and Spain, France is reluctant to inject new funds to banks on the pretext that they are not facing a crisis of solvency but liquidity. If, as apprehensive markets, Greece is lacking, and that Italy and Portugal a restructuring of their debt, they will not escape.

The United States deplored the European fiscal discipline

The more one goes into the crisis and is more visible: the states are powerless to solve the problems because they are unable to agree. For weeks, markets expect strong political positions. Instead, the summits are linked together without any serious decision is taken. Just this week, the Ministers of Finance of the euro area have found themselves in Poland, and Washington for the opening dinner of the G20 finance. But each time, markets would have found that the more anxious. In addition to the severe lack of European governance, the divisions seem more and stronger on one side and across the Atlantic. The United States to Europe including blaming his fiscal discipline, almost incompatible with the maintenance of growth. A conundrum that nobody wants to decide.Not even the IMF, very poor matchmaker. On Thursday, Christine Lagarde has merely conceded to each other, supporting Barack Obama's plan for employment (447 billion), and commending the efforts of countries involved in the decrease of budget deficit …

Operation Twist Fed is pschitt

The markets had placed too much hope in the meeting of the Fed's Sept. 20. They had been dreaming that her boss, Ben Bernanke, went out of his hat and decisive action to support the U.S. economy. Whereby they have had the formalization of the launch of Operation Twist. This is for the Fed to exchange $ 400 billion in Treasury bonds against short-term securities with longer maturities. The objective of this hocus-pocus giant is to influence the rate of long-term interest to encourage business investment and private individuals.Problem, it is an indirect incentive does not offer assurance of effectiveness. In addition, if the technique is clever, it reveals above all the lack of leeway for the Fed can not lower its rates or already virtually zero, or purchase of new Treasury bills. In other words, after the operation Twist, the U.S. central bank is disarmed. What is worrying the markets.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB), as expected, Thursday maintained its monetary policy at zero, but significantly lowered its estimates for growth and inflation.

The SNB lowered its growth forecast of gross domestic product (GDP) now expects an increase between 1.5 and 2% in 2011 instead of 2% "about".

It relies now on a 0.4% inflation in 2011 and a deflation of 0.3% for 2012 as it foresaw in June respectively rates of 0.9% and 1%. For 2013, the central bank refers to a price increase of 0.5% versus 1.7% previously.

The SNB justifies its decision by explaining that it expected GDP growth will stop in the second half.It recalls that in Switzerland, the development of the economy "is hampered both by the strength of the franc and the decline in foreign demand."

The SNB repeat it "will prevail over the floor of 1.20 francs per euro, fixed on September 6, with all the required determination." She intends to keep the total deposits on demand well above 200 billion francs.

"Without the stabilizing effects of the floor price, the risk of recession would be significant," she warns.

The central bank believes, however, that even at 1.20 franc per euro, the franc is at a high level."If the economic outlook and the risks of deflation required by the National Bank will take additional steps," she adds.

She noted that the downside risks could occur at price stability if the franc were to cease to weaken.

The SNB has kept its rate fluctuation corridor Libor in Swiss francs at three months from 0 to 0.25%, which was expected by 34 economists polled by Reuters.

Steve Jobs, Apple's iconic chief, resigned from his position as general manager, said Wednesday night the Apple brand.

On sick leave since January, Steve Jobs has been appointed Chairman of the Board of Directors of Apple and Tim Cook replaces the position of CEO.

"I always said if I ever came to not being able to perform my duties and obligations as CEO of Apple, I'd be the first to let you know. Unfortunately, that day has come" he wrote in his letter of resignation.

For many analysts, the resignation of Steve Jobs, predictable long-standing, should not prevent the group from Cupertino to continue on the path he laid out, marked by timed out.A new iPhone could also be marketed in September and the third version of the iPad tablet in 2012.

"I would say to investors not to panic and stay calm. Is the right thing to do. Steve Cook is president and CEO," responded Colin Gillis, an analyst at BGC Financial.

At 56, Steve Jobs has survived pancreatic cancer and was on sick leave since Jan. 17.

He was briefly interrupted in March when, emaciated, he came to present the new version of the tablet from Apple, the iPad.Steve Jobs was then photographed at a meal with President Barack Obama.

Since sick leave, Tim Cook held the position of CEO on an interim basis.

Steve Jobs spent all day Wednesday at the headquarters of his company in Silicon Valley, officials said a source close to Apple.

He met with the board and his closest collaborators and intends to play an active role in his new role, they added.

"Investors are very comfortable with Tim Cook, even if Jobs was the engine of innovation.Tim has shown that Apple could totally outperform when he was CEO of Apple, "said Shannon Cross, analyst at Cross Research.

Trading in Apple stock was suspended in electronic transactions. By 2300 GMT, it was indicated down 7%.

After a week of trading the most volatile memory, the New York Stock Exchange finished up Friday, raising hopes that the worst is over regarding the massive sales of securities that have been observed day funds.

The rebound Friday has not helped to erase the losses of the week, and U.S. markets are on track to achieve their largest decline over three weeks since March 2009.

The Dow Jones gained 1.13% or 125.71 points to 11,269.02 points and the S & P 500 has been 0.53% or 6.17 points to 1178.81 points.

The Nasdaq was awarded for its 0.61% (15.30 points) to 2507.98 points.

For the week, the three indices yield respectively 1.5%, 1.7% and 1%.

Sign that investor anxiety has subsided somewhat, the volume of trade Friday was much lower than in the previous four sessions, and changes in the rating were less violent.

"The decline in volume today clearly indicates that the current market a little less worried," commented Ken Polcari of ICAP Equities prior to closing.

He said that if the economic indicators next week are in line with expectations, the trend may continue.

"Before you go higher, the market needs to repair itself a little and to rebuild a database.This is what happens now. "

The rise in European markets, due to the ban on short selling some financial stocks, has helped to support Wall Street.

The U.S. economic indicators have meanwhile been blowing winds in the markets.

The numbers of consumer sentiment have molested standing at their lowest since 1980 but the July retail sales showed their biggest increase in three months.

As for values, title Nvidia fell 3.95% to 12.88 dollars, offsetting the strong gains made last after the announcement that the group included a higher than expected its quarterly revenue.