Top Economics News

Iran has refused to hand over to Greece 500,000 barrels of crude oil as part of retaliatory sanctions of the European Union related to Iran's nuclear program, reports the Sunday 'unofficial news agency Fars.

"Tankers who had surrendered (to Iran) to load 500,000 barrels of Iranian crude to be delivered to a refinery Greek had to leave empty, Iran has refused to make delivery, "wrote Fars without specifying its source.

Iran has stopped selling crude to British and French companies in recent days. Its oil minister warned on February 4 that the Islamic Republic would cut its oil exports to "certain" European countries.

Greece does not return to growth until 2014, after four years of recession that have reduced the gross domestic product (GDP) by 17%, estimated Tuesday officials the European Union.

They added that Greece should cut another 150,000 jobs and reduce labor costs by 15% within three years.

"We believe that Greece will return to growth in 2014," said one of them to the press. "We expect a contraction of 4.5% this year and stagnate in 2013. This corresponds to a contraction of more than 17% over four years."

According to these officials, the Greek minimum wage is still higher than in Spain or Portugal. Labor costs increased by over 30% in Greece over the last decade, an unparalleled growth in the euro area, according to statistics from the European Union .

To reduce debt to 120% of GDP by 2020-in accordance with the agreement reached within the Eurogroup on the night of Monday to Tuesday, against 160% currently, Athens must raise 19 billion with 35 planned privatization from 2012 to 2014.

This amount is well below the anticipated 50 billion euros in the first bailout of 73 billion euros but it is included in the second. 

The year 2014 would be if Greece would record a primary budget surplus of 4.5% of GDP and where she could return to capital markets, officials said officials.

Unemployment will start to decline until 2014 and also its rate will be the order of 17% and 15% in 2015.

Officials from the euro area are studying how to delay parts of or the entire second level of aid to Greece, if possible until after the election pre views for April, it was learned Wednesday from European sources.

While the new aid package of € 130 billion is now almost ready, the finance ministers of the euro area are still not satisfied with the commitments of the Greek political leaders to implement the agreement, which realizes that Athens provides further budget cuts and introduce many unpopular reforms by 2014.

There are also doubts about the path of debt reduction Greek. It represents about 160% of Greek GDP and the "troika" consisting of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund would like to return to 120% of by 2020.

"There are proposals to delay the Greek package or cut into parts, so that immediate fault is avoided, but without commitment on the whole (package)" said one source.

"The options will be discussed (…) There is pressure from several countries to hold things until there is a concrete commitment in Greece, which could not come before the elections, "they added.

A telephone conference of finance ministers of the euro area must take place at 17:00.

Moody's downgraded the outlook of the Aaa rating of France to negative from stable, reflecting the agency said uncertainty surrounding the economy of the euro area and the ambitions of Paris in terms of re production deficits.

The U.S. rating agency also adjusted notes and perspectives of eight other EU countries including the United Kingdom and Italy.

The call to order by Moody's comes a month to the day after the decision by Standard & Poor's reduced the rating by one notch from France, from AAA to AA +, in D action to the deepening debt crisis. 

Moody's maintained its Aaa rating of France, the best possible, but warned that it could be a reduction if the government failed to implement its economic reforms and budget.

The euro and British pound fell against the dollar after advertising.

In a statement released Monday night, the agency notes that the uncertainties related to institutional reforms envisaged in the euro area, coupled with anemic growth prospects in the region, continue to affect the confidence of financial markets.

Moody's also believes that the figures of the French debt continue to deteriorate and that France is among the countries rated Aaa "weaker" in this field. 

The agency also highlighted "significant risks" which the French government will face in achieving its objectives of reducing public deficits.

BAROIN NOTES

"These could be further complicated by the need to help other European countries or its own banking system," reads the document.

The economy minister said Tuesday Baroin "take note" of the decision by Moody's.

"The government is determined to continue its action for growth, competitiveness, including the reform of financing of social protection, employment and reducing die ; ficits public, "the ministry said in a statement. Bercy added that government policy "is part of a framework and methodology of long-term".

The Elysée and Matignon did not react immediately.

The Socialist candidate for president, Francois Hollande, did not want to throw fuel on the fire and has insisted that France was not in the same situation that Greece, in the throes of a violent protest after degradation and austerity plans repeatedly.

"We are not in this situation and those who make this comparison do to scare the French," he said on RMC and BFM-TV. 

Arnaud Montebourg, "third man" of the Socialist primary, responded by criticizing the role of rating agencies: "The rating agencies, everyone understands that they play a toxic role and Moreover perverse ", he said on France Inter. "For me and for many (…) they are charlatans."

For Labour Minister, Xavier Bertrand, zero can not ignore the verdict.

"It also shows very clearly that no candidate will escape the rules of good management in the months and years ahead and it shows very clearly that with the program (…) economic and social Francois Hollande, the account is not (…) and that there would necessarily be a further degradation, "he said on France Inter.

The government has this week at the National Assembly a bill supplementary budget with the key measure, an increase in VAT to finance social protection, is highly contested by the opposition and trade unions. 

ON BOTTOM OF GREEK CRISIS

Beyond French borders, the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area is growing.

The Greek government was asked Monday by its European partners to submit further proof of its commitment to reform despite the adoption, on the eve of an austerity plan rity by a parliament besieged by thousands of protesters.

These provisions are required by the "troika" (International Monetary Fund, European Union and European Central Bank) in exchange for an aid package of € 130 billion found essential before March 20, when an important deadline for the country's debt (14.5 billion euros to repay). 

Moody's had warned Jan. 16 that it was considering the prospect of the note of France and it would update the country scores of the European Union in the first quarter.

Standard & Poor's and Moody's had worried about the drift of French public finances while warning against the risk that the government's economic reforms are undermining growth, pillar which is based precisely on Paris to try to achieve its objectives of consolidation.

In fact, the government postponed last week of 2013 to 2014 the decline in its ratio of debt to gross domestic product due to the participation of France in the European Stability Mechanism (MES ), which must support States in the euro zone in trouble, and growth forecasts reduced from 1 to 0.5% this year. 

Commitments to reduce the public deficit is confirmed, however, to 4.5% of GDP in late 2012 and 3% in 2013.

But the Court of Auditors, which certifies the accounts of the State, estimated that only 10% of the total effort that must be capable of reducing to zero the structural deficit in France – in 2016 from Bercy – had been achieved last year.

European shares fell sharply Monday in volume again, failure of U.S. lawmakers to agree on reducing the federal deficit and a warning from Moody's about the "triple A" of France with weighed on investor sentiment.

In Paris the CAC 40 yielded 3.41% at 2894.94 points.

The new Italian Prime Minister revealed the composition of his government. In addition to its status as prime minister, he will take the reins of the Ministry of Economy at a time when the country is under pressure from the markets. Mario Monti.

The new Italian Prime Mario Monti said on Wednesday it would also economy minister, after his team presented to the President of the Republic Giorgio Napolitano. The former European Commissioner, 68, was named to replace Silvio Berlusconi as head of government while Italy is in danger of suffocation from the weight of its debt.

Monti also decided to create a large Ministry of Development, Infrastructure and Transport told the boss that the second national banking group Intesa Sanpaolo, Corrado Passera. Mr.Monti said the combination of these three portfolios within the same department by the "logic" to "put more centrally coordinated initiatives for economic growth."

Other key ministries were entrusted to experienced technocrats: Foreign Affairs to Ambassador Giulio Terzi di Sant'Agata, the Defense Admiral Giampaolo di Paola, the Interior to Prefect Anna Maria Cancellieri. Corrado Clini, Director General of Ministry of Environment in the last 10 years, was appointed minister. The government of Mario Monti has a total of three women who take charge of Justice, Interior and Labour and Social Policy, said Mr Monti.

Exchanges in the euro area have closed down sharply Friday, with the G20 summit concluded its work without any major decision, and especially without a concrete solution to the debt crisis in the eurozone.

In Paris the CAC-40 lost 2.25% to 3123.55 points. For the week, it yields 6.72%. The other major European markets also ended down: London and Frankfurt lost 0.33% 2.72%. Of the European indices, Eurofirst 300 finally lost 1.02%.

The Wall Street players show the same skepticism, resulting in losses of more than 1% for the three major Dow Jones, S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, despite the employment statistics rather positive.

"The G20 has not entered into by major decisions. It was a big problem with Italy," says one vendor."There is no visibility," he said, adding that the new EU stability "is not forthcoming."

Alexandre Le Drogoff, technical analyst at Aurel BGC, said the "bear market" comes back and that "the current decline in prices should lead to lower annual test" (2693 for the CAC 40, 1935 for the Eurostoxx 50).

The euro transplanted nose against the dollar and appears on course to acknowledge its biggest weekly loss since mid-September, traders in the largest remaining uncertainty about the bailout of Greece in preparation for the vote of confidence.

The Bund future was up, taking advantage of the lack of commitment of the G20 countries on strengthening the participation EFSF, especially after the statements of German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

European leaders are determined to act in a coordinated response to the crisis in the euro area, said Wednesday the executive director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde.

On the eve of the G20 summit in Cannes, the former French Finance Minister acknowledged that could occur in spurts, a thinly veiled reference to the surprise announcement of a referendum in Greece, but it ensured that the determination of the Europeans was decisive.

When working at B20, which brings together representatives of world's largest companies, in Cannes, she explained that global growth was slowing, but she persisted.

She added that the downside risks weighing on growth, suggesting a negative interaction of financial and economic, as well as the risk of social unrest.

About the crisis in the eurozone, "I've never seen so much determination and will to act in a coordinated manner," said Christine Lagarde.

"You will see (reactions such as) 'but what does it speak? What have we seen two days ago?' Of course, things are not smooth, sometimes in fits and starts major, "she added.

"But what matters is what was decided on October 27 in the morning (…) and what will count tomorrow, in the days, weeks and months, it is the resilience and determination of the partners the euro, European partners, "added Christine Lagarde.

Thirty-six, 38, 42 and maybe tomorrow as 50 per month when Airbus increases production rates of its single-aisle aircraft, it's party time for subcontractors in the aerospace industry.Unless the funds to finance the necessary investment will come running out.

These suppliers, some of which also work for Boeing in the interest of diversification, are technically ready to follow the ups cadence, but sometimes have difficulty obtaining financing from their bankers, actors and observers believe the industry.

Driven by the boom in Asian demand swells order books, manufacturers accelerate the pace, especially in the aisle – the segment of medium-haul flights of 150 seats – the most lucrative and most promising of the civil aviation with a value estimated at some 2,000 billion over the next 20 years.The 'supply chain' will fit, maybe it will grind a bit in the ramp-up, but we adapt, "he told Reuters Jean-Claude Maillard, CEO and founder of Figeac Aero, under contractor to Airbus, which finds that up to 48 or 50 units per month is "quite possible".

He echoed the statements of President of the Group of aerospace equipment and defense (GEAD), Olivier Zarrouati – also CEO of Zodiac Aerospace – who recently told Reuters that a growing number of production plants for OEMs keep up the pace aircraft manufacturer was not required.

"You can go to heaven, there is no limit", says David Bonnus, aerospace expert with the firm Step Consulting.

Standard & Poor's Tuesday lowered a notch credit rating of ten Spanish banks, including the two largest in the country, pointing to the darkening economic prospects and a housing market still depressed.

Fitch Ratings has reduced its share shortly after the note of six banks in the wake of its decision, announced Friday, to lower the rating of Spain by two notches to AA-.

Among the banks downgraded by S & P are Santander and BBVA, key institutions of the country.Their two notes back from AA to AA-and carry a negative outlook.

S & P also revised the rating outlook for four banks, reducing it from stable to negative, and placed the bank under review with negative implications.

The prospect of all banks rated by S & P is now negative, meaning that further declines are possible notes.

Fitch, Banco Santander fell from AA to AA-and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) from AA-to A +.

Other banks involved include Banco Popular Espanol to BBB +. This note is placed under review with negative implications because of its exchange offer launched on Banco Pastor.