Chinese production at its lowest for three years
Industrial production grew only by 9.3% in April against 11.6% in the first quarter. This is the lowest figure since May 2009. Retail sales, exports and investment also slow. A factory in China flat panel displays.
China announced Friday a slowdown in inflation but also the smallest increase in industrial production in almost three years, two factors that should prompt the government to further relax its monetary policy to stimulate growth.
Industrial production grew only by 9.3% in April against 11.6% in the first quarter. This is the lowest figure since May 2009 when the increase was 8.9%. "The Chinese economy is even weaker than expected, with growth of industrial production in the single digits for the first time since the global financial crisis," said Alistair Thornton, economist at IHS Global Insight, based in Beijing.
Any effect of the second world economy is also reflected in a slower increase in retail sales, gauge consumer spending, which rose in April by 14.1% year on year, against 15.2% in March and 14.8% for the entire first quarter. "The figures of consumption and production (industrial) showering even more hopes for a resumption of rapid growth in China," said Mark Williams, an analyst at Capital Economics.
Finally, investments in fixed capital, contributing to over half of the formation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of China also see their rise on a year to slow to 20.2% for the first four months of the year, whereas it was 20.9% for the first quarter. These weaknesses of the economy should prompt the government to ease its monetary policy, especially since the rise in consumer prices slowed to 3.4% yoy in April, against 3.6% in March.
The level of inflation remains well below the 4% threshold set in March by the government, which closely monitors the evolution of prices to maintain social stability in a politically sensitive period, with the coming to power a new generation of leaders scheduled for the fall. On a year, food prices remain the main contributor to the rise, with 7% growth, which disproportionately hits the poorest households because they spend a larger portion of their income on food. But about a month, food prices fell 0.9% in April.
"The priority for the Chinese economy is not inflation but rather how to maintain economic growth," he told AFP Liao Qun, an economist at China Citic Bank International in Hong Kong. The producer price, which provides an early indication of future inflation, for their part, declined year on year by 0.7% in April. They had already declined in March but only 0.3%. "The extremely low index of producer prices will be one of the main factors that will force the government to further easing" monetary policy, according to Mr. Thornton.
Monetary easing seems all the more necessary that the Chinese economy is less and less driven by export growth, which suffer from the debt crisis in Europe, and struggling to find a relay in domestic demand. In April, growth in exports over the year fell to 4.9% and imports were virtually flat with only 0.3% increase, according to figures released by Customs on Thursday. These figures are significantly below the target of foreign trade growth of about 10% by government decree in 2012.
This smaller increase in foreign trade of China has contributed to the slowdown in growth, from 9.7% in first quarter 2011 to 8.1% in the first quarter of this year. To support the activity, the central bank will soon lower the reserve requirements for banks, allowing them to lend more, analysts said. Two drops of these reserves, very high in China, have already taken place in December and February.
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